The Detroit Lions are beat up after a physical and emotional win over the Minnesota Vikings. And while they must travel to play a 1-6 Miami Dolphins team, they can’t afford to underestimate them. The NFC North is too competitive for a trap game, and the Dolphins are a little scrappier than they appear.
But is there a real chance of an upset in Miami, or are the Lions clearly the better team? Let’s examine it in our Lions vs. Dolphins preview and prediction. It’s time for On Paper.
Lions pass offense (8th in DVOA) vs. Dolphins pass defense (29th)
The Lions’ passing
offense remains one of their most reliable units on the team. While last week’s performance against the Vikings wasn’t explosive, it was certainly a lot better than most teams manage against Minnesota’s defense. While the DVOA ranking remains outside the top five, I still believe Detroit’s passing attack should be in that top tier.
For the season, they rank:
- Fourth in passer rating (110.0)
- Seventh in yards per attempt (7.9)
- Third in dropback EPA (0.264)
- First in EPA/pass (+0.21)
- Fourth in dropback success rate (51.4%)
Detroit is humming in all facets of their passing attack. In pass protection, the Lions allow the fifth-lowest pressure percentage (30.1%), rank seventh in pass-block win rate (54%), and rank third in PFF team pass-blocking grade (75.1).
The Dolphins may have a worse pass defense than the Lions. Five out of the seven quarterbacks who have faced Miami have finished with a passer rating of 119.8 or higher. Granted, they’ve played some really good quarterbacks in Brock Purdy, Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow, and Drake Maye. Still, those quarterbacks have outperformed their year-long efficiency against Miami, and the DVOA ranking—which adjusts to opponents’ strength—proves this is a bad pass defense.
Overall, they rank:
- 32nd in passer rating allowed (119.5)
- 32nd in yards per attempt (8.3)
- 32nd in dropback EPA (0.288)
- 32nd in dropback success rate (53.7%)
This is the result of having an extremely young and inexperienced back seven.
Though there is some recent hope for Miami’s pass rush. As Erik Schlitt pointed out in his Honolulu Blueprint, while the season-long stats don’t look great for the Dolphins’ ability to get to the passer (35.6% pressure rate, 18th; 4.2% sack rate, 28th), they’ve started to put things together. All nine of their sacks have come in the last four games, and they’ve posted a pressure rate of 39.5% or higher in three out of four of those games (league average is around 36%).
Over those last four games, the Dolphins’ pass defense has been better, but certainly not good. From Weeks 4-8, Miami ranks 27th in dropback EPA (0.180) and 29th in success rate (50.7%).
Player to watch: Sam LaPorta. It’s been a quiet few weeks for the Lions tight end, but Miami is allowing the sixth-highest yardage to tight ends (483 yards) and tied for the fourth-most touchdowns (six).
Advantage: Lions +3. This is a top-five unit vs. a bottom-five unit. The only reason I’m not giving it a higher advantage is that some things are trending Miami’s way, and weather could also play a factor, with some slight chance of rain.
Lions run offense (4th) vs. Dolphins run defense (26th)
The Lions’ rushing attack still has frustrating bouts of inconsistency, but last week’s performance against the Vikings felt like a revelation. Whether Detroit’s sidecar formation was a Vikings-specific answer or the cracking of the code for the entire season, we’ll see. But it shows one thing for certain: Lions offensive coordinator Drew Petzing is capable of finding some answers.
For the season, the Lions rushing attack now ranks:
- Ninth in yards per carry (4.6)
- 13th in rush EPA (-0.083)
- Third in success rate (47.0%)
But I must continue to repeat myself that the negative plays are a big problem. The Lions’ 19.3% stuffed rate is sixth in the NFL. Those figures are down from last week (20.9%, third-highest), but it still remains an issue to track. Detroit’s power success rank also improved after last week, but they still rank just 24th, converting on just 59% of short-yardage situations.
Still, it’s worth pointing out how both the offensive line and the running backs are doing their parts. Detroit’s line ranks third in adjusted line yards, eighth in run block win rate, and fourth in PFF run blocking grade. Meanwhile, Detroit’s backfield ranks sixth in rushing yards over expected per rush (+0.5), sixth in yards after contact per rush (3.38), and Jahmyr Gibbs ranks fourth in missed tackle forced rate (31.9%).
This chart doesn’t exactly vibe with the Dolphins’ bottom-10 DVOA ranking. They’re not giving up a ton of yards nor a ton of yards per carry. So what gives? Let’s look deeper.
- Eighth in yards per carry allowed (3.8)
- 22nd in rush EPA (-0.078)
- 30th in rush success rate (43.9%)
In short, it appears the Dolphins don’t give up a ton of big, explosive plays, but they essentially give up exactly what the offense needs. That’s backed by data. Miami has only given up 21 rushes of 10+ yards (t-14th), and just three rushes of 20+ yards (t-sixth fewest).
The good news is the Dolphins are weak where the Lions’ run offense struggles. They’ve produced just a 14.9% stuffed rate (23rd), and they rank 21st in power success rate, allowing conversions on 68% of short-yardage situations.
Player to watch: Jacob Rodriguez. The Dolphins rookie linebacker has been a fun player to watch thus far. Rodriguez has been credited with 30 “stops” per PFF (plays that are a failure for offense), which is second most among ALL NFL linebackers, not just rookies. Seventeen of those have come in the run, t-eighth most.
Advantage: Lions +1.5. I’m not sure I’d expect a huge game from Gibbs and company, given that Miami has not allowed over 150 rushing yards in a game. But Detroit should be fairly efficient on the ground.
Dolphins pass offense (26th) vs. Lions pass defense (24th)
It hasn’t been a great start to the year for Malik Willis in his new home, but it’s hard to blame him given the supporting cast. He’s got an extremely young receiving corps, a new offensive system, and an imbalanced offensive line. As a result, the Dolphins rank:
- 26th in passer rating (79.7)
- 20th in yards per attempt (6.9)
- 23rd in dropback EPA (0.014)
- 20th in dropback success rate (43.8%)
The Dolphins aren’t a complete disaster, but they’re clearly below average.
That said, there are some very interesting advanced statistics surrounding Willis. For one, he’s not afraid to chuck it deep. He currently owns the third-highest average depth of target (9.2), and his deep ball percentage of 16.4% ranks first in the NFL (yes, above Jordan Love, too). But he also ranks third in time to throw (3.05), suggesting he likely holds onto the ball too long—especially when you consider the Dolphins have the second-highest sack rate (10.3%).
The offensive line is a mixed bag. Though they’ve allowed the second-highest pressure rate (43.2%), they rank 20th in pass block win rate and 31st in PFF pass blocking grade. The issue is that the left side of their offensive line is good-to-great (LT Patrick Paul is 14th in pass blocking grade, rookie LG Kadyn Proctor is improving) and the right side is a disaster (RT Austin Jackson is dead last in pass blocking grade, RG Jonah Savaiinaea is 63rd out of 76).
And as mentioned before, the receiving corps is ridiculously young: Malik Washington is 25; Caleb Douglas is 23, and Chris Bell is 22. Young doesn’t mean bad, but it’ll take them some time to get adjusted to the NFL.
Is the Lions’ pass defense actually getting better? It’s hard for me to tell. The raw numbers are improving, but as the chart above shows, they’ve also played some pretty bad passing offenses in the last few weeks. I’m not yet convinced.
Overall, the Lions rank:
- 26th in passer rating allowed (101.0)
- 18th in yards per attempt (7.3)
- 29th in dropback EPA (0.218)
- 28th in success rate (50.0%)
I think it’s also worth noting that the Lions’ pass rush has fallen off a bit as of late. After three weeks, the Lions ranked 10th in pressure rate (39.0%) and second in time to pressure (2.46). The Lions now rank just 17th in pressure rate (35.8%) and 20th in time to pressure (2.68). And this week, they’re almost certainly without DJ Wonnum, who was fourth on the team in pressures (14). That said, the Lions still do rank third in pass rush win rate, third in PFF pass rush grade, and seventh in sack rate. I just worry it’s trending in the wrong direction.
Then, of course, there are the injuries to account for. While it looks like Brian Branch is on track to play, the Lions don’t have MIKE linebacker Jack Campbell, and top cornerback D.J. Reed is trending toward missing this game. Detroit’s back seven has already struggled immensely in coverage, and now they’ll be tested further.
Player to watch: Malik Washington. Washington leads the Dolphins in catches (31) and yards (329), and the Dolphins like to use him all over the field—as a screen weapon or downfield. His 4.47 speed is a weapon.
Advantage: Draw. I’m not particularly impressed with either unit. I think it’s certainly possible Willis hits on a few big downfield plays, and I think it’s also very possible Detroit is able to disrupt and sack Willis 4-6 times this game. In the end, I think it’ll all even out.
Dolphins run offense (26th) vs. Lions run defense (23rd)
This is another weird statistical oddity for Miami. By the charts, it looks like they actually have a good thing going with their run game, including a breakout season from Ollie Gordon (408 yards, 4.5 YPC, 4 TDs) and some quarterback rushing potential from Malik Willis (225 yards, 3 TDs). Yet, the advanced statistics aren’t as impressive. They rank:
- 11th in yards per carry (4.4)
- 21st in rush EPA (-0.128)
- 24th in success rate (36.0%)
It turns out this rushing attack is very boom or bust—like a less-efficient version of Detroit’s running game. They have produced t-sixth-most rushes of 10+ yards (26), but also a 19.1% stuff rate—seventh-highest.
The problem appears to be that the offensive line isn’t carrying their end of the bargain. They rank 26th in run block win rate, 27th in PFF run blocking grade, and 27th in adjusted line yards.
But credit to Gordon for doing everything he can to get the most out of his situation.
I don’t know, man. The Lions are just too inconsistent in the run game this year. They’ve been better lately, but it seems like they’re still susceptible to explosive plays. Overall, the Lions rank:
- 16th in yards per carry allowed (4.1)
- 17th in rush EPA (-0.096)
- 11th in success rate (37.2%)
So that pretty much matches my eye test. They’re decent down-to-down, but they give up too many explosives. Though they’ve only allowed 21 rushes of 10+ yards (t-14th fewest), they’ve allowed six of 20+ yards (t-ninth most).
And with the loss of Jack Campbell, it’s hard to know how this unit will respond. Detroit has an experienced linebacking corps in Derrick Barnes, Malcolm Rodriguez, and Trevor Nowaske, but none provide the instincts and consistency of Campbell.
Player to watch: Tyleik Williams. I pointed it out in my Dolphins vs. Patriots thoughts, but Miami really struggled against New England’s nose tackle last week, and Williams remains an impossible guy to move.
Advantage: Dolphins +1. I’m giving Miami a slight advantage here for a couple of reasons. First, I am concerned about the loss of Jack Campbell, and it may take a couple of weeks for Detroit to find a plan that works without him. Second, I do think Willis provides a legitimate rushing threat, and Detroit has lost contain far too often this year. Third, I just think Miami is better than their stats suggest, and the Lions may be a tad worse. It shouldn’t be a dominant day for Miami—and if Detroit can get out to a big lead, they can erase this advantage completely—but I still think Miami has the slight edge here.
Last week’s prediction:
On Paper drops to 5-2 overall and 3-4 against the spread, but I don’t feel all that bad for how my Lions vs. Vikings preview played out. The only area I made a clear mistake was underestimating the Lions’ run game, and for the first half of that game, I looked right. But Petzing made a lot of believers on Sunday, and I’m one of them.
In the comment section, we nearly had two perfect predictions, despite the odd score. Muddy.D’s 19-16 Lions prediction was just a single point away, as was Devil Barrel’s 18-15 Lions prediction. Here is your prize. Share it, or I’ll take it back, and you get nothing.
It’s a football lasso. Just in case you happen to commit the awful sin of spinning a football near an opponent, you can rope it back in before any ref sees!
This week’s prediction:
The Lions come out with a pretty definitive +3.5 advantage. I know the Dolphins have kept it close with some recent opponents, but I’m not really buying it. There isn’t a single thing they do particularly well, and their worst unit (pass defense) happens to match up with Detroit’s best unit (pass offense). I think that could spell disaster for Miami, as they don’t want Malik Willis dropping back 50 times to try and keep pace with Jared Goff.
I think we get our first comfortable Lions win since the Cardinals game. Lions 38, Cardinals 24.
