After hosting the Pirates series at home, the Cardinals could have been a .500 team or even a winning team; however, the Cardinals lost that series and hover a win or two away from the 70 win plateau. Why am I watching that closely? Why, it’s the number of wins Vegas odds predicted the Cardinals would win. If you are a betting Cardinals fan, rejoice! You are sure to be seeing a payout there. I almost made that bet back in April, but alas, I’m not a betting man.
To start out the season, I was writing
warped projections articles showing how it wouldn’t be that hard for the Cardinals to get to around .500 or even surpass that mark. Well they certainly have the ability to go over .500, they just can’t stay over by more than 9 games. They also cannot seem to sink too far below the .500 line, but they still have a month to lose. I think they will be fine, -ish. They surely would have, could have, had a stronger finish if stalwart players like Masyn Winn, JJ Wetherholt, Andre Pallante, and the up and coming Hunter Dobbins all could have stayed healthy. But here we are, entering the final month, under .500 and missing key players.
It sure looks like the Cardinals could end up as many as ten or more games below .500, or the team could simply continue to tread water, struggling with .500. Promotions to players like Winquest, Bernal, and Rincon feel more like auditions for next year at this point. So beyond looking forward to seeing how the young players close out the season and set themselves up for 2027, what else is there to do? I don’t know about you, but I feel like reminiscing about what has happened during the first 5 months of the season. Already feeling nostalgic? I guess!
But first, another look at the Rookie of the Year race, which is voted on by a (hopefully) diverse group of assessors that know what they are doing regarding player evaluations…
- Who do you vote for if you like defense? JJ Wetherholt gets rookie of the year here. Unless somehow the other players make up some WAR really quick, the vote probably goes to JJ regarding overall value too, unless you just scoff at and completely write off the WAR stat, which many have (I haven’t).
- Who do you vote for if you mostly like hitting, but want it coupled with good defense? Carson Benge is probably your guy then. He is possibly the most well-rounded player here, given his steadily increasing OPS, his strong throwing arm, and steady defense in right field.
- Who do you vote for if you want them good ol’ counting stats like HR and RBI? Sal Stewart has somehow racked up over 100 RBI already, despite being stuck on one of the worst offenses in baseball. That alone is very impressive, and the fact that he had no problem getting to 30 HR either… some will see this guy as a shoe in. Well I am very impressed, his defense cannot compare with either Benge or Wetherholt, it is the weakness in his game. Benge also is the far superior baserunner and all around baseball playing athlete, as is Wetherholt.
- Who do you vote for if you think a good pitcher should always supplant a good hitter? Nolan McLean would be a perfect option then, with his bright and shiny ERA and his 3+ WAR total, already making him one of the best pitchers in baseball.
I won’t be able to fault you picking any of those 4 guys to win it right now. I of course would just defer to WAR and my own fandom here and vote JJ, but then again, if he misses ample playing time, he may get passed up or tied in WAR if something outlandish happens over the last month.
2026 Cardinals Position Players by WAR
A Grade Cardinals
2B JJ Wetherholt had the right combination of defense and above average hitting this year to amass 4.4 fWAR in 130 games played. He arrived as such a valuable player by playing outlandish defense while sustaining an on-base percentage of .343 at leadoff, while occasionally wearing some pitchers down. He may not have many games left to add to his 17 HR total, but even 17 was more than we had imagined. Wetherholt gets an A for his rookie season, even if it’s already over. If you’re curious, Baseball Reference rates JJ even higher at 4.6 WAR. If JJ were to play a 150 game season, he would have no problem cracking 5 WAR.
Injury update: the earliest JJ can come back is Sept 9, and I think the Cardinals expect him to be back then.
RF Jordan Walker has so far inverted his -1.3 fWAR from last season into a +3.1 fWAR as it stands today. This is still the biggest surprise of the season. While Wetherholt doubled his projections, Walker threw the script on himself out the window. The new Walker has emerged, and this version won the Home Run Derby. He is still a liability in right field, but possesses a cannon for an arm to help offset that a little. When you’re chasing down 30 home runs and hitting better than most of the league, you get an A. When you better yourself by over 4.5 WAR from last year, you might deserve an A+, even. There is still work to be done, however, mostly on defense, but an A is enough. Good work Jordan Walker. Prediction: 3.5 WAR, 30 HR, 100 RBI, 20 SB.
1B Alec Burleson the story of Burly goes back to 2022-2023, where he was a below average hitter working his way up. Since then, Alec Burleson has taken his own form of hitting and made it better each season. He remains hacktastic and a little prone to lefties, but he has worked on his weakness. One of which was on-base percentage. Burly has bettered himself by upping his OBP every season. While his batting average seems to have maxed out, Burleson has raised his OBP markedly each season:
- 2022 .264 OBP
- 2023 .300 OBP
- 2024 .314 OBP
- 2025 .343 OBP
- 2026 .353 OBP
Walks may be boring, but they open the doors to more runs and even more power. Burleson has already tied his career-high HR total of 21 (2024) while walking a lot more often than that year. Going to have to give out another A. Burly now has 100 RBI, which is easily his career high. What can Burly do to continue his constant improvements? He can lower his strikeouts and keep improving vs left-handed pitching. Of course, if he can play defense even better next year which I believe he will, that’s just another way he can continue to become even more valuable.
B–
SS Masyn Winn daredevil shortstop with the difference maker arm, eliminating baserunners gets a B. The hitting is below average, but enough for a plus defender that is difficult to pin down, value-wise. Wetherholt and Winn turned so many double plays it made my head spin. Winn altered his batting style this year, upping his on base percentage but seeing everything else falter on offense. Prorated to 150 games, Winn is still a 3+ WAR player and a key part of the defense.
Update: Winn could return sooner than later
LF Joshua Baez I would give Baez a B but his wRC+ is still around Masyn Winn territory. He gets the B- for hitting home runs at a pace of about a home run per series, but mostly because he’s only played in 16 games and I don’t really know what to say about him just yet. The power has been enormous so far: .315 ISO! Far too early, but it’s been a fun debut for the youngster. The statcast numbers aren’t really out yet except for his sprint speed, which is 89th percentile, and his average exit velocity is among the best at 93.4!
Update: Baez now has 6 HR! and is above 100 wRC+.
C+
C/DH Ivan Herrera’s season has come down to him breaking a record by getting hit by pitches (not on purpose!) and well, should he even be a catcher. While he might be the team’s best blocker, he isn’t very good at catching overall. On a team crowded with catchers, it begs the question, should a guy who can’t throw runners out even bother catching? The complicating factor, other than Ivan may not be suited to playing any other position: he doesn’t hit well when he is the designated hitter. He turns into a pumpkin. Do you continue to let him catch, or try to trade him in the offseason? That’s the choice, in my opinion.
How do we grade Herrera against his past self? His power numbers are down but his on-base percentage is up. He takes more walks but isn’t striking out more. I think ultimately he is having a weird off year because of all the hit by pitches and never quite finding his rhythm. As a big Herrera fan, I wanted to give him a better grade, but he has just been an above average hitter that sets the tone at the top of the lineup, very similar to JJ at leadoff. The defensive metric numbers are very similar to Jordan Walker’s, so he will probably be dragged down in value by his defense going forward each year. Here’s hoping he can figure out to hit more as a DH or moving to another position that he is better at. He is fine as a backup catcher, but you want to get the bat into the lineup more often.
C
OF Bryan Torres looks to be a good bench player depth piece! If you started his .6 WAR 150 games, he would be about a 1.65 WAR guy. So I don’t see him stealing a starting spot. But I am definitely not disappointed with Torres. Batting league average with a few home runs while playing decent defense. That works.
C Pedro Pages I give Pedro a lot of crap off and on throughout the season, but ultimately in a way he is like the “lite” version of Masyn Winn. Good defense, bad offense. Pedro should hit better next year, but you cannot expect more than an 80 wRC+ from this guy. I like the plus defense. But the hitting can be bad, using this season as an example: 59 wRC+ is Victor Scott II territory. Unfortunately, Pedro cannot match that kind of elite defense. That said, Pages is perfectly fine as a backup catcher.
CF Everson Pereira’ his 109 wRC+, ISO north of .200, and pretty decent defense make me want to think of him as something more, but he just hasn’t played for the Cardinals enough to assign more than the default C grade, especially if he will be more of a bench guy. That said, I really like this random acquisition, and he’s been fun to watch (except when seeing his hand get smashed by a pitch!). Prorate his .5 fWAR to 2+ WAR. Maybe that’s our center fielder next year, or at least half the platoon! Perhaps a C+ is in order.
Update: now that Victor Scott II has been recalled, I would bet the Cardinals let Pereira heal up for a while.
CF Nathan Church has held his own despite a BABIP of .266. His 10 HR total has been nice. But! his .2 fWAR over 118 games is less than encouraging. Maybe a C-? He needs to improve on that defense (as does Pereira to some extent). Perhaps my biggest concern with Church is the batting average and especially the on-base percentage, but maybe next year will be better for the left-handed hitter.
3B Blaze Jordan while there have been some flashes of brilliance so far, the fact that his season has been tragically shortened by injury will force us to wait and see. The resulting left ankle sprain will have him missing several weeks of play. Blaze did not show a ton of power or on-base ability, but his defense was solid at the hot corner. Not a total disappointment, but definitely not much of a reinforcement either. Gorman was just that bad.
D
C Jimmy Crooks was a replacement level catcher with decent defensive abilities in 52 games played. You might be surprised he hit 5 home runs over that span of time, because his .179 BA due to a .232 BABIP and well, just not connecting with the ball most of the time made every plate appearance a difficult watch. 32.2% K rate.
F
Nelson Velazquez, Victor Scott II, Thomas Saggese, and Yohel Pozo did not make the cut, all had negative WAR, and ties were severed quickly. And yet, the worst negative fWAR “offenders” Nolan Gorman, Ramon Urias, and Cesar Prieto remain on the team. Granted, Saggese and Scott could theoretically be promoted, I just don’t see it happening. Nolan Gorman is still striking out over 32% of the time on the season. So, prorating his season out, Gorman would be one of the most painful ways to get 20 HR while playing mediocre defense at third base. That is not actually a good player when you aren’t doing much else but hitting home runs at a boring clip. While I don’t think Urias is as bad as his statline, he certainly has not been an asset. Many fans are wondering what the point of him being on the team is, other than being the veteran present. Prieto has been nearly legendarily bad in little playing time.
Some things about this season just do not compute, it’s been a weird year. It’s been fun, but the offense and bullpen are too inconsistent. There are about 3 players that are very good MLB producers, but two of them rely a lot on pulling off amazing defensive plays, with the other one being a first baseman.
What is the main flaw of the offense? They don’t strike out much, but they don’t like taking walks. I’m not sure how much this matters because of what the Brewers are doing, but they’re in the bottom 10 teams in HR total as an offense. With a .281 BABIP as an offense, I can tell you there is a pattern with certain players just not having a good BABIP, appearing unlucky at least to some extent. Wetherholt, Winn, etc.
Ok, so, I was wrong about Victor Scott II on Monday night! He’s back now! Guess that’s the main update for one day of a news gap. I think he will make the pitching staff a little more confident. The hitting can’t be much worse than a Church 80-ish wRC+. The catches will look easier out there... or Scott will be a good late-inning defensive replacement.
1996: The Year In Music
I am back to provide you with not the most popular opinions on music, but also, not the most obscure. Join me as I walk a line between total hipster underground albums you’ll never ever hear, and some albums that you are probably all too aware of! And everything in between, hopefully.
- Meat Beat Manifesto – ‘Subliminal Sandwich’ industrial dub techno psychedelic multi-genre masterpiece, I can never get enough of this 160 minute masterpiece. I could write many words trying to get you to hear this, but I’ll just put it at the top of the list instead. Perfect double album. Or is that quadruple album? It was two 80 minute CDs… sometimes more is better.
- Swirlies – ‘They Spent Their Wild Youthful Days In The Glittering World Of The Salons’ well, I have to admit, I like this album just as much as my #1 there. But, it’s a much different sound, more like shoegaze style. Alt rock, noise pop, psychedelic smart kid music, I don’t know what to call it. Indie rock. It’s one of the best most thrilling listens out there. That’s what I’ll say about it. It’s really fucking good.
- Aphex Twin – ‘Richard D James Album’ the album title is the name of the mastermind behind Aphex Twin, and this was his original breakthrough album, although maybe he became even more well known for his subsequent EPs ‘Come To Daddy’ and ‘Windowlicker’. Nonetheless, as a fan you must always come back to this album, as it distills his future styles with his multi-layered past into a perfect capture of the multi-layered and tiered mid-90s burgeoning electronic music movement. Many didn’t even hear it until a year or two, few after its release… but once you hear it, it’s unforgettable.
- Ministry – ‘Filthpig’ if those two albums are my favorites, then Filthpig deserves a double dipped silver medal since it’s my favorite Ministry album and they’re one of my favorite bands. I am more on the metal/noise rock end of the spectrum of Ministry fans, I suppose. This is an absolutely incredible production. I put it in my album hall of fame, as I did the first two albums from this year. 1996 was a helluva year for music in my book.
- Unwound – ‘Repetition’ post-punk ingenuity meets noise rock together forming a force that blows the roof off the joint. This one’s got the juice. Peak years for the northwest’s Unwound. Cannot recommend enough. Check it out to hear Sarah Lund’s unique drumming, if for no other reason.
- Squarepusher – ‘Feed Me Weird Things’ an amazingly funky futuristic sounding album, especially for 1996, which appears to have been a good year to release breakthrough sounds. This one has grown on me over the years, and I love it more with each listen. Tom Jenkins used to share an old bank building with Aphex Twin. Anyway, Feed Me Weird Things is just an amazing collection of experimental funky jazz fusion drum and bass meets IDM, resulting in new musical forms.
- Dr Octagon – ‘Dr Octagonecologyst’ an incredible listening experience produced by dj Dan The Automator and narrated by bizarre genius Kool Keith.
Dr. Octagon, paramedic fetus of the East
With priests, I’m from the Church of the Operating Room
With the strikes of force, scalpels since the Holocaust
I do indeed in greed, explore meet the patients
Back to brooms with the nurse with the voodoo curse
Holding up office lights, standing at huge heights
Back and forth, left wing swing to North
East and South with blood pouring down your mouth
I come prepared with the white suit and stethoscope
Listen to your heartbeat—delete, beep, beep, beep!
Your insurance is high, but my price is cheap
Look at the lamp (Let me show you showmthin’)
And with that, I’m going to leave with my 7 favorite albums of 1996. I will have more ‘96 next week, all my honorable mentions and heavy metal and whatnot. But these are my 7 can’t miss 1996 listening experiences.
It’s another late one in LA tonight, adn the night after. Then the quest continues to Denver and the Rockies later this week. Stay tuned!
