There are all kinds of 2026 baseball season predictions out and about, from those determined by complex computer algorithms, or made by the bookies whose money is on the line, or tossed out by fans of one team or another.
However, the one you are about to read has much more expertise applied than any of those others. Not only does it go point-by-point, but, in keeping with what math teachers always want we show our work.
Trust me on this.
THE PREMISE We will begin where we left off in 2025, with 60
wins. Depending on how you wish to look at it, that was either a wonderful 19 more victories than in 2024, or a not-so-hot one victory fewer than the dismal 2023 season. Either way, it’s the point from which we apply precise mathematical analysis, sector by sector.
AS THINGS STAND
Catchers
Catching was obviously a bright spot last season, with Kyle Teel, Edgar Quero and Korey Lee combining for 3.4 bWAR. There’s no particular reason their hitting will be much different this year, Quero’s hot spring and Teel’s cold one and hamstring strain notwithstanding. They are all young guys, thrust up to the majors too quickly on the defensive side, so there’s room for improvement there.
Add one win for improved D. Now we’re at 61 wins.
Infield
Here’s where there’s a big position jump upward, with the addition of Munetaka Murakami at first. The professional prognosticators aren’t as crazy about the Japanese batting champion as you might think, hovering around the 2.0 WAR mark. But we’re fans, so we’ll say he earns a three-spot.
Second and third are apt to be the same meh mish-mash as 2025, so call that even. But Colson Montgomery will be around the whole season, barring injury, and he rated 3.3 bWAR in just 71 games last year. From a fan perspective, it’s tempting to think pitchers will learn nothing about him and double that, but the computers are apt to be more realistic and they all see him not even matching the 3.3. Using brilliant math analysis (and a tad bit of fandom), we split the difference and give him one added win.
That’s old-fashioned golf pants (plus-fours, get it?), so we’re at 65 wins.
Outfield and DH
Aye, here’s the rub.
Andrew Benintendi will be a year older and quite possibly even worse, but we’ll give him the benefit of the doubt and say he holds his own.
In center, Luis Robert Jr. is gone. He may have had two bad years in 2024 and 2025, but he was still better than whatever ends up taking his place. Minus one win.
In right, the brilliant minds of White Soxdom decided not to keep Mike Tauchman (1.9 bWAR), replacing him with Austin Hays (0.8 in about the same playing time). The algorithms don’t like Hays any better for 2026. Minus another one.
As for DH — same bunch as last year.
We now stand at 63 wins.
Pitching
The relief pitching should have a major upgrade in Seranthony Domínguez, who is apparently destined to be the closer even though he seems to have bought completely into the myth of Magical Mystical Final Out Syndrome and has a career ninth-inning ERA a full run more than the seventh or eighth, and an absolutely massive difference last year of 2.00 in the seventh, 2.18 in the eighth, and 5.00 in the ninth. He also hasn’t had a bWAR better than 0.5 since 2022. But he has a nifty first name and the one-run-game record last year was abysmal, so we add two wins with him.
By far the best reliever last year was Mike Vasil (2.9 bWAR) and if he moves to the starting rotation or is lost for the season after his injury on March 14 that will be lost, but we can hope that doesn’t happen. Otherwise, bullpen types will go up or down as they are wont to do, so it’s a wash — except 2025’s second-best reliever, Steven Wilson (1.2 WAR) is gone, so we take away one win.
As for the rotation,, by far the best starter last year was Adrian Houser (3.0 WAR), who is gone, as is Martín Pérez (1.2 WAR, despite missing most of the season). Theoretically, the slack will be picked up by Anthony Kay, (who the Sox brain trust figures will be the 2026 version of 2024 Erick Fedde, back from Asia new and improved despite a dismal MLB career), and, well, Erick Fedde again. The pros see little benefit in either. Subtract two wins.
That’s a total of minus one, so we’re at 62 wins.
AS THINGS MAY BECOME
It’s highly likely that some combination of Braden Montgomery, Noah Schultz, Hagen Smith, Tanner McDougal, Sam Antonacci and others will be brought up to the majors during the season. If Montgomery is anything close to what he’s shown so far, he’ll be a big improvement in the outfield. Even if the pitchers have rookie struggles, they’ll improve the starting rotation. Antonacci should be a step up from whatever infielder gets injured or doesn’t perform.
Here we go big and add three wins due to the prospects trickling up to the South Side.
However, on the flip side, if Kay, Fedde, Hays (or even Murakami?) are any good, they’ll be gone by the trade deadline, because they aren’t contracted long enough to be around when the White Sox are actually competitive: one year for Fedde and Hays (who is theoretically just holding a spot for Braden), two for the others. Subtract two wins (more if Murakami goes, but we have to hope that doesn’t happen).
Now we’re at 63 wins.
NON-PLAYERS
As Will Venable didn’t seem to have any of those “what the hell is he thinking” moments of his two predecessors and doesn’t have the morale-crushing stupidity of Pedro Grifol or arrogance of Tony La Russa, having a year of experience is bound to make him better. Add three wins.
Going the other way, the inexplicable decision to let pitching coach Ethan Katz go when he did such a fine job with so many young pitchers, converting two Rule 5 draft pickups and a waiver signing into good-to-excellent performers and keeping Fedde solid for the only stretch of his MLB career is going to hurt. Having a replacement who is just part of the pathetic KC-to-Chicago pipeline (the theory “we small-market teams have to stick together” in practice) makes matters worse — yes, Zach Bove joined the Royals in 2023 and their pitching improved during his tenure, but that had far less to do with coaching than with acquiring Michael Wacha, Seth Lugo, Cole Ragans and Michael Lorenzen. Subtract three wins.
We stay at 63 wins.
A LITTLE HELP FROM OTHERS
The attempt by some other members of the AL Central to bring the division back to its traditional position as the laughingstock of baseball is apt to be helpful. Particular thanks should go to the Guardians and Twins, who decided not to try any more.
It’s too bad you don’t get 76 games within your division these days, but you do still get 52. Last year the Sox were 18-34 within the division, a 56-win season pace that was even worse than reality. That’s not going to happen again.
Versus Detroit, the Sox went 5-8, so look for no improvement there unless the Tigers again tend to hold back their best pitchers to face better opponents. In fact, that record may end up a game worse. Minnesota will be giving the White Sox a good crack at fourth place in 2026, but the Sox went 8-5 against the Twins last year, so that may happen again.
Chicago went 3-10 against Kansas City, and an improvement of two games seems reasonable. And the 2-11 recorded versus the Guardians is bound to improve another three games.
That would take us to 67 wins, but the rest of the majors are bound to improve a little given the failure to do so by Cleveland and Minnesota, so subtract a win there.
WHICH MEANS …
The White Sox will end the 2026 season with a 66-96 record.
That’s smack dab in the middle of what the bookies say. They must use my system.
