Now that five weeks of the NFL season have passed, it’s time to rank and tier the AFC opponents based on who the Kansas City Chiefs should fear most for the rest of the season. Let’s get it started with the contenders:
Tier 1: Could win the AFC
1. Buffalo Bills
To me, four teams can realistically win the AFC: the Chiefs, Bills, Jaguars, and Ravens. Of those three, the Bills remain the scariest. Buffalo’s offense remains high-powered, with quarterback Josh Allen, their run game, and improved weapons. Buffalo’s defensive line has more juice
this year with the emergence of Gregory Rousseau and Deone Walker. Still, Buffalo’s back 7 is incredibly leaky and can sink them.
2. Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jaguars are 17-5 since Liam Coen took over as head coach and are a legitimate threat. Quarterback Trevor Lawrence is playing elite football, and their offense is humming with a deep supporting cast of weapons. Defensively, their talent isn’t overwhelming, but it’s well-coached and has stars like pass rusher Josh Hines-Allen and cornerback Travis Hunter. Their roster has holes, but they have top-10 units on both sides of the ball and are well-coached.
3. Baltimore Ravens
Baltimore’s been an interesting watch through five weeks. Lamar Jackson is playing great, and new offensive coordinator Declan Doyle has done a great job designing the run game and weaponizing Zay Flowers. Defensively, their front has more juice with the signing of Trey Hendrickson and improvements from Tavius Robinson, Travis Jones, and Mike Green. However, like Buffalo, their secondary can be leaky, and they still have skill-position issues to sort through. It’s also a new staff in its first year, so it’s hard to gauge how they’ll do in the playoffs until we see them there, but they have enough talent to be a threat.
Tier 2: Could win a playoff game(s)
1. Cincinnati Bengals
You could definitely argue for the Bengals in Tier 1. Their offense remains elite with quarterback Joe Burrow, and wideouts Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. Adding Dexter Lawrence and Boye Mafe has dramatically improved their defensive line. However, their linebacker and safety play are still dreadful and I don’t think they can mitigate that for three postseason games.
2. New England Patriots
New England’s been weird to start the year, but they seem to be rounding into shape. Their defense has carried over its positive momentum from the postseason, and the offense is starting to look as explosive as they were a year ago. They’ll get wide receiver A.J. Brown back soon, which should make the offense even better. I’m still dubious on New England vs. elite teams, but they have enough talent to be scary.
3. Denver Broncos
The Broncos have been a rough watch offensively all year, but it’s still time for them to catch a rhythm and play better. Their defense is still very good at rushing the passer and playing man coverage. They can be dangerous, but I don’t trust the offense at all, and the vibes seem off there. They can’t run the ball, and Bo Nix is not seeing it well and moving less after his injuries. Feels like last year was probably their best shot.
4. Houston Texans
Houston is 1-4, so it’s surprising to see them here, but I still think they’re a dangerous team. Quarterback C.J. Stroud is playing great football, and their defense is still very good, though they haven’t played at the level they did a year ago. However, they’ve played the Bills, Bengals, and Cowboys, three top offensive units, which will make your defense look worse. Houston generally peaks later and their schedule lightens up, so I expect them to be hanging around in the AFC picture.
Tier 3: Competitive regular season teams
Pittsburgh Steelers
Tier 3 teams are relatively competitive regular-season teams that could play spoiler for seeding purposes, but probably don’t have the juice as playoff teams. The Steelers are the top team in this tier. They’re trench talent on both sides of the line of scrimmage, but their secondary has played poorly, and quarterback Aaron Rodgers is too old to play well for 17 games.
Las Vega Raiders
The Raiders got off to a 3-0 start and played well against the Chiefs, but the cracks showed against the Patriots. Their run game isn’t explosive, they lack wide receiver talent, and their pass rush outside of Maxx Crosby is shaky. They’ll be a competitive 7-8 win team, and three of those wins came right out of the gate.
Cleveland Browns
Cleveland started 3-1 and has shown more spirit than expected, but it’s still an offense led by Deshaun Watson, and they have one of the worst run games in the NFL. Like the Raiders, they’ve already hit their peak and will likely decline moving forward.
Indianapolis Colts
The Colts are a depressing situation because they traded their 2027 1st-round pick already and they aren’t a good team. Their offense is fine, but not the unit that was setting offensive records a year ago. Their pass rush is bad and they bleed too many passing yards in coverage. They’re just not a good team and I expect them to pack it in soon.
New York Jets
The Jets are playing hard and much better than a year ago, but they’re still limited in talent, and their coaching staff isn’t elite. But the Chiefs game against the Jets should be more competitive than I expected.
Tier 4: Already doing mock drafts
Los Angeles Chargers
One of the shocks of the NFL season is how dead the Chargers already are, but they’re a terrible team. Their defense is fine, but not as good as when Jesse Minter was leading it. Their offense is atrocious. There’s a good chance their entire staff is fired and the players already look checked out. Nothing is going well.
Miami Dolphins
We saw the Chiefs play the Dolphins, and while they play hard, they lack any real talent. It’s hard seeing them win more than 2-3 games.
Tennessee Titans
The Titans are a dreadful watch with a terrible offense. Their staff is probably getting fired after their first year and they might have a new quarterback. It’s a train wreck in Tennessee.
