The Miami Dolphins are about to kick off against the Detroit Lions, but I wanted to make sure I got this preview for the game posted. I also wanted to thank Ryan Matthews from Pride of Detroit for taking the time to answer my questions about the Lions.
1. The Lions have the league’s top offense (395+ yards/game) and third-ranked scoring attack (29 points per game) under new offensive coordinator Drew Petzing. What has Petzing introduced compared to past years, and when opposing defenses have gotten
Detroit off schedule this season, what worked?
Through seven games, a few unique things have stood out about Petzing as an offensive coordinator, but the biggest takeaway is how he’s going back to what made this offense so efficient and productive in 2023 and 2024. One of those callbacks is offensive personnel. Ben Johnson relied heavily on 12 personnel–two tight end sets–utilizing it on 30% of snaps across ’23 and ’24. Under John Morton and Dan Campbell in 2025, the Lions lined up in 12 personnel just 25% of the time, but that was likely influenced by not having enough healthy, NFL-capable tight ends to line up. Without Sam LaPorta or Brock Wright for a good chunk of the season, the offense as a whole suffered. This season, Petzing has that number up to 35.2%, the third-highest rate in the NFL. As a result, the Lions have one of the best run games in the NFL: fifth in success rate (45.0%) and fourth in rush DVOA (9.0%).
Elsewhere, Petzing has Jared Goff lining up under center 53.4% of the time (second in NFL) and utilizing play-action passes 34.6% of the time (third in NFL). Goff is at his best when he can use deception to create more time to deliver throws across the middle of the field, and Petzing is accommodating. However, when Detroit’s offense gets off schedule, it’s been tough sledding. No matter if it was Johnson or Petzing, that’s usually been the case. Goff doesn’t bring that ability to extend plays with his athleticism, so if Detroit is facing a third-and-10+, there’s usually a screen play, or a delayed handoff to try and catch the defense napping. If so, they have Dan Campbell ready to go for it on fourth down.
2. On the other side of the ball, the Lions rank 29th in total defense, allowing over 373 yards per game, but they are stuffing the run as a top-ten unit, giving up just 96.6 yards per game. What is making this front seven so stout against the run, and are there specific rushing schemes or alignments where opponents have found creases?
It all starts up front with Detroit’s defensive line. Even though the individual statistics don’t paint players like Tyleik Williams and Alim McNeill as difference makers in the middle of their defensive front, they’re doing the dirty work: taking on multiple blockers, holding their ground in gaps to disrupt run plays and provide opportunities for the guys behind them to do their jobs. Unfortunately, Jack Campbell, one of their ultra-reliable linebackers, remains hospitalized after a serious neck injury suffered last week against Minnesota. He leads the team in run defense stops (10) per Pro Football Focus, but there’s just no way to quantify how much Detroit will miss his presence as a leader and communicator in the middle of their defense. Derrick Barnes–the team’s SAM linebacker–and Malcolm Rodriguez–often lining up as the WILL–could be next in line to take over the green dot duties for Campbell as the MIKE linebacker. Both are solid in run defense, but can be inconsistent in coverage, so there might be some opportunities for the Dolphins to work the middle immediate areas of the field in the passing game.
3. The Lions’ secondary has given up plenty of yards this year, ranking 32nd by allowing 276.6 yards per game. They are currently dealing with major injuries, including star safety Brian Branch entering concussion protocol. However, Miami’s passing attack looks entirely different now, relying on Malik Willis and a young, revamped receiving corps led by rookies Caleb Douglas and Chris Bell. How do you see defensive coordinator (and former Dolphins linebacker) Kelvin Sheppard game-planning for this specific matchup—will he test Miami’s inexperienced wideouts with aggressive coverage, or play conservatively to limit big plays?
Detroit often sticks in base personnel (43.7%, fifth in NFL) and plays with a heavy box (28.9%, eighth in NFL), and with some of the question marks in regards to player availability in the secondary, it’s going to be very interesting to see how Kelvin Sheppard adjusts. Not only is Brian Branch working his way through concussion protocol, but D.J. Reed, the team’s top cornerback, is dealing with a hip injury that’s kept him out of practice so far this week. From the sound of things, Reed is going to miss this game, so Sheppard will have to rely heavily on their depth at outside corner, a position that’s been in flux basically all season long. Realistically, he could turn to any number of players. Could be veteran Rock Ya-Sin, could be Ennis Rakestraw, could be Khalil Dorsey–someone who primarily plays special teams. Roger McCreary has settled into the slot cornerback role for the Lions, but they’ve also pushed him outside when injuries have necessitated shuffling.
It wouldn’t surprise me to see Sheppard stick to his game plan and expect the reserves to carry it out. His approach to sending extra defenders has varied week to week– Week 2’s game against Buffalo saw Detroit blitz on 47.4% of snaps–but since then, he’s dialed back his aggressiveness, blitzing on just 16.2% of snaps, the lowest blitz rate in NFL over the last six weeks. The Lions have worked through some of their early-season missed assignments and breakdowns in coverage, opting to play more man (33.3% in Weeks 5-8, fourth in the NFL over that span) to pair with their ability to get after the quarterback effectively by sending just four pass rushers. Given Malik Willis’ ability to use his legs, there’s a good chance Sheppard stays in that base defense and has his defensive front maintain gap integrity to limit Willis’ escapability.
4. Dolphins fans do not see the Lions very often; Sunday’s game is just the 14th meeting between the two teams. Several familiar faces from the 2022 game remain in Detroit, but the roster also includes many new players. Who is an offensive player Dolphins fans may not know but should watch on Sunday? A defensive player?
On offense, one name to keep an eye on is backup running back Sione Vaki. Drafted in 2024, Vaki was primarily a safety for the Utah Utes, but Detroit saw enough in his limited opportunities as a runner to transition him to a full-time running back. Vaki’s defensive chops earned him an early opportunity to contribute on special teams where he became a four-core special teamer. Reps at running back were in short supply when you consider the backfied consisted of David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs his first two seasons. A freak injury in training camp, where Vaki broke his nose, prevented him from getting valuable experience as the team’s RB2, but against Minnesota last week, Vaki earned the trust of the coaching staff. His role on third down as a pass-protector, combined with his hard-nosed, north-and-south running style–11 carries for 65 yards, both career highs–will surely have him taking his fair share of snaps on offense this Sunday.
For defense, keep an eye on fifth-round rookie cornerback turned safety Keith Abney. Detroit has primarily used him at deep safety after the rocky start to the year for the safety group, but they could end up returning him to cornerback for this game considering how shorthanded the team is due to injuries. He could spell McCreary in the slot, or he could be pushed into the team’s CB2 role outside if they think that gives them their best combination in the secondary this week.
5. Dan Campbell was the Dolphins’ interim head coach in 2015. This will be his first trip to Miami as a head coach since then. This year, Detroit has started 5-2, but coming off last year’s 9-8 finish, which included three losses in the last four weeks, what is the fan base’s current temperature on Campbell, and what would constitute a successful campaign this season?
Winning cures all, but even when Detroit was flying their way through some early-season turbulence, it felt like Sheppard was the one getting the worst of it. Campbell has always had his doubters, and he’ll continue to be questioned by that crowd on a weekly basis due to his aggressiveness on fourth down. But like I said, even when things were at their worst to start the season, it was Sheppard who drew the ire of the fanbase, not Campbell.
After what happened in 2024, a “successful” campaign for Detroit would include them winning at least one playoff game. Returning to the playoffs would be a good start, winning a highly-competitive NFC North would be even better, but winning at least one playoff game would be enough for me to know this doesn’t need to take a longer and harder look at itself this offseason.
