What is the story about?
After a strong finish to his rookie season, Luke Loucks wanted to take that momentum with him into the offseason.
On paper, it seems like he did just that.
With the transfer portal closed, Florida State basketball has the third-ranked transfer portal class and 19th-ranked high school recruiting class according to On3. Loucks literally went around the world, leaving no stone unturned, to put together a roster with the potential to bring Florida State back to the NCAA tournament for the first time this
decade.
With six freshmen making it to campus to go along with six new transfers, FSU men’s hoops will look drastically different from the team a season ago. What should fans’ expectations be for this group? How likely is an NCAA tournament run? The TN team breaks down those questions and more below.
No. 1: What are your overall impressions of the roster heading into the year?
- Jordan Silversmith: I think that the roster is constructed properly and makes sense as Loucks clearly built this group with an eye towards the weakness the Seminoles had a season ago. Last year, the Noles were almost always the smaller team and less athletic. In the 26-27 campaign, FSU should be much more equipped to play physically with the addition of freshman Marcis Ponder, Sebastian Rancik, and Cooper Schwieger out of the transfer portal. Along with those two big men, Florida State will have positional size at the 2-3-4 spots with Kam Taylor and Shon Abaev, both lengthy wings. In the transfer portal last year, Loucks needed to throw together a group of players and try to make them fit. However, heading into next season, the group coming in fits the head coach’s style of play and, on paper, appears more cohesive.
- Michael Rogner: FSU clearly spent more money, so I guess that is good. But this is still a roster that would be a huge surprise to make the 2nd week of the NCAA Tournament. There wasn’t a single portal addition that ranked in ESPN’s top 100 transfers. So while I am excited to see what Luke and staff can do with this team, my expectations aren’t that great.
- Matt Minnick: On paper there’s been a clear upgrade in length, defensive versatility, and pedigree. It’s almost as if one season of being a college head coach has morphed Loucks into a Hamilton disciple. However, just because there’s more size and talent, doesn’t mean there aren’t a bevy of questions. Who is the preferred second ball-handler? Who will be serve in the Robert McCray V role late in possessions/games? Will Marcis Ponder really be asked to play 20+ minutes, and if so, can he avoid foul trouble? With so much versatility on the wings, what will the rotations be (this is especially intriguing to me since Loucks has gone on record saying he doesn’t want to play more than 8-9 guys come conference season). With realistically zero returning players getting minutes, will the team struggle to find an identity early again? And who exactly will score from the perimeter? If I’m being brutally honest, I hope there’s still one more addition to the roster. I don’t like the idea of allocating two roster spots to guys who won’t be practicing with the team at all this summer/fall (A.J. Swinton due to injury and Jasen Lopez due to football) and in the cutthroat world that college sports has become, I’d tell Lopez that I’ll be his biggest fan on the gridiron but I need to use his spot for a shooter.
- Curt Weiler: You saw the proof of concept Luke Loucks was able to sell on the fundraising trail with how well his first team finished the season. That, in turn, paved the path to being in the conversation for more prominent transfers. Someone like Sebastian Rancik or Anthony Robinson II likely wouldn’t have given FSU the time of day at this time last year. Now, Loucks is established enough and has better financial support to be able to build a better roster. I’m interested if Loucks’ long term vision remains the same or if he has shifted a bit closer to the “Ham ball” size that we often saw with Leonard Hamilton’s teams. FSU being tied to the 7-foot-5 USC center transfer (who, of course, ended up at Louisville), raised an eyebrow.
No. 2: What do you think the strengths of the team will be and some of the weaknesses?
- Jordan: I think this team should be able to guard, and they will be able to win games by holding teams to 65 points or fewer. Anthony Robinson II was a massive get for Loucks out of the portal, a head-of-the-snake defender on the defensive end who sets the tone for the rest of the unit. As mentioned, the positional length on the roster should allow Florida State to switch 1-4, possibly even 1-5, and keep opponents from hunting mismatches. One concern I have is who will create for Florida State in the half-court late in games? Whenever FSU’s offense went cold last year, Robert McCray V took games over and bailed his team out. Robinson II has never been that player in college basketball. Could he break out in Tallahassee?
- Michael: In the Ham mode of “never count my scholarships,” I’m still hoping a knock down shooter somehow walks through that portal, because – unless several of these guys make huge jumps – we’re once again going to be watching a team miss a lot of open 3s. On the positive side, I think Luke has learned that the relative value of defense at the college level is higher, and leaned into guys who can defend a bit more this year. His system relies on stops and getting into transition, which this team will be better poised to do.
- Matt: I agree with Jordan that defense has the potential to be a real strength, and Robinson is a big reason why. He is my favorite roster portal addition. Another strength should be playing with pace and scoring in transition. FSU will have six guys 6’7 or taller and five of them can all legitimately grab a rebound or deflection and initiate the fast break. That’s the kind of “defense-to-offense” capability that turns 2 point leads into 12 point leads in a hurry. Unfortunately, I agree with Rogner and share his major concern for perimeter shooting. The transfer class is filled with guys who profile as more scorers than marksmen. Rancik’s free throw shooting demonstrates that he could be on the verge of becoming a knockdown three-point shooter, but it’s still just potential at this point. From the high school class, Brandon Bass, Jr. is highly regarded from three and Collin Paul showed real improvement in that area this past season, but relying on freshmen to be your best shooters feels mighty risky.
- Curt: I think this team’s improved size, physicality and “want to” will make it a better defensive team on the whole. I also think a player like Marcis Ponder, even though he’ll be a freshman, will make a difference. Nothing at all against Alex Steen, who did his job admirably given his skillset, but I can’t even begin to know how many times I looked at Matt last year during home games and said, “This team needs a Marcis Ponder.” That size should help FSU be a notably better defensive rebounding team when he’s on the court. Like the consensus seems to think, I agree this team could use another shooter. Banking on guys who were ok (or worse) shooters last year to take a step forward when transferring into the ACC is a tough ask. It’s the opposite of last year’s roster-building strategy of bringing in established mid-major shooters, which had mixed results at best, but I’m not sure it will be any more effective.
No. 3: Luke Loucks took a heavy freshman class. Do you agree with the strategy and who are a couple names you expect to contribute this season?
- Jordan: Loucks said multiple times last season that he wants a team that matures and grows up together over time, even if that goal may be unrealistic. Well, the head coach is certainly trying with six freshmen coming to Tallahassee. While unconventional in the era of the transfer portal, I can appreciate Loucks trying to zig as the rest of the country zags. The top schools in the country no longer take large freshman classes because they just find veterans through the portal. There may be an opportunity for the Seminoles to build up through the high school ranks instead of spending top dollar in the portal. As far as names to know, Ponder, as mentioned, will have to be a massive piece for FSU on the boards. I am also curious what Jasen Lopez looks like, and whether he can play football and basketball.
- Michael: That’s how the budget works. It’s cheaper to bring in a bunch of freshmen and hope 2 or 3 can play right away. And it’s a bit easier now to land impressive high school classes because a lot of the blue bloods are becoming much more selective about who they’ll take out of the high school ranks. It’s better to let them develop somewhere else, and then pick off the ones you want in the portal. That said, the Seminoles absolutely 100% need Brandon Bass Jr to contribute. The lefty is one of the best shooters in the class, and fingers crossed that that translates to the college game. FSU’ll also need Marcis Ponder to play ~15 mpg just to give us size against many of our opponents. Legit bigs are the separator between the haves and have nots, and FSU needs Ponder to slow them down.
- Matt: I like it. Loucks acknowledged right away that roster turnover would be extremely high his first couple seasons before reaching a place where he’s using the portal to fill gaps as opposed within a core that already exists. While I can’t imagine he wanted to have a second year roster with potentially zero returning players contributing, this year’s high school class makes it seem likely that this will be the last time that happens. Even if you only hit on two or three of the group, it still lays a foundation for an exciting future. Looking at year one, if Ponder can’t give meaningful minutes in ACC play, the Seminoles are probably not dancing. His size and physicality might have been the difference last year in a few close losses (i.e. slowing down Reneau on the offensive glass against Miami) and Florida State needs him to be that guy this year.
- Curt: It makes sense from where FSU is financially. While the money for roster building is growing, it’s still not nearly there to compete with the teams building their rosters entirely through high-level transfers and top-ranked high-school prospects. Loucks paying so much attention to the high-school ranks in this age where more and more coaches are focused on the portal seems to have paid off with one of the higher-ranked HS classes in program history. There will be the learning curve in conference play which could lead to some resume-hurting losses but if you’re able to retain those guys for Year 2 or even 3, that’s when the decision will really start to pay dividends.
No. 4: What did you make of the Thomas Bassong situation and how do you feel Loucks did filling his spot?
- Jordan: College sports, in the day and age of the transfer portal, are weird. Bassong and the school announced early on in the offseason that he would return, even doing a press conference with the Frenchman, before Bassong changed course at the 11th hour and entered his name into the portal. With a Bassong-sized gap on the roster – and in budget – Loucks filled his spot with two versatile wings, Cooper Schwieger and Elisee Assui. Schwieger should be able to come in and play valuable minutes for Florida State, and profiles similarly to Rancik as a stretch four that can shoot. He mostly came off the bench at Wake Forest, but started 65 games in two seasons with Valparaiso and averaged 15.8 points per game his sophomore year. Depending on the version of Schwieger that FSU gets, he could be a massive addition. As for Assui, it is impossible to know what he can contribute this season. He can certainly guard with a body shaped like a cinder block, but whether he has enough offense to play heavy minutes remains to be seen. The best player comparison for him is Bassong, and it makes sense why Loucks went after Assui right after Bassong announced his intention to leave the program.
- Michael: I’d prefer he were still here, but in this era players are going to get bad advice and coaches can’t be held hostage, especially by a guy who still needs at least one more year of development before he’ll really shine, imo. Mostly, I feel for the kid, because it’s obvious he loved it in Tallahassee and wanted to stay. Sometimes the right move is to fire your agent, not the coach.
- Matt: The situation sucks and it would be totally avoidable if the NCAA would grow up and decide to treat the players for what they are (employees) and allow for multi-year contracts and buy-out damages. It’s clear Thomas was getting bad advice; waiting so long to enter the portal meant most of the top schools had already used the bulk of their budget and filled their rosters. Growing up means tough life lessons and this feels like it will be one. All that said, I applaud Loucks for moving on quickly and sending a message to players and agents that FSU won’t be held hostage. And while I am admittedly a huge fan of Bassong and his potential on the court, I’m impressed this staff had such a capable back-up plan lined up. Loucks and Michael Fly were prioritizing retaining Bassong for most of last season, and for good reason. But as Rogner said, he likely doesn’t become a true stud until the 2027-28 season. Before he announced he was portaling, I asked our slack group whether it was even feasible to start all three of Taylor, Abaev, and Bassong. Assui comes in with experience competing against grown men and with a skill set that feels more ready to contribute at both ends this coming season, even if his ceiling might be lower long term than Bassong’s.
- Curt: Matt put it well. It sucks. He wants to be here but was clearly pressured by outside forces (an “agent”) to push for more money. This agent may have worked with Mike Norvell before because we’ve seen that strategy work time and time again on the FSU football roster. That Loucks didn’t get involved in that game and appears to have informed him they will be moving on (and quickly finding an apparent replacement), here’s hoping that sends a message to anyone else who tries these power games with Loucks. Because it’ll only happen more the greater of success he finds in Tallahassee.
No. 5: Although the 26-27 schedule has not been released yet, what are your early expectations for Loucks’ second season?
- Jordan: There is good news and bad news for Florida State. The good news is they have improved. The bad news is that so is the rest of the ACC and Florida. Duke, UF, and Virginia both did a great job retaining players from the portal. Miami and Louisville hit the portal hard and are much more talented than FSU on paper. NC State and North Carolina each have new coaches, but are investing heavily in their new bench bosses. No matter what creative moves Loucks tries, it is difficult to imagine the Noles as a top-5 team in the ACC. With that in mind, the goal this season should be to get an at-large bid to the NCAA tournament by taking advantage of the Quad 1 games on the schedule against increased competition.
- Michael: As long as the Seminoles stay relatively healthy and get some contribution from the freshmen, I think we’ll see FSU playing meaningful basketball in Feb/Mar as one of the bubbly teams. If for some reason one or two of the freshmen end up blowing up the place, then FSU’ll have a shot at top 4 in the conference and a favorable seed in the Dance.
- Matt: We know at a minimum FSU will be playing Dayton and UF in Tallahassee, Texas A&M in Texas, likely another SEC opponent in the ACC/SEC challenge, plus an 18-game ACC schedule. That’s a lot of opportunities to impress the committee, but as we saw this year, also a lot of chances to fall on your face. My fear is that people see a more talented roster and just assume FSU will be better than last season. I can’t imagine they’ll have as many 30+ point losses as last year, but I also think folks underestimate just how good the Seminoles were the final 6 weeks. My hunch is Florida State will be more consistently “solid” but perhaps lack the high end ceiling of the team we saw against Clemson, SMU, and Duke down the stretch. If Florida State can sneak into the tourney as a 10 or 11 seed, I’ll be giddy about 2027-28.
- Curt: As evidenced by last year’s team after THAT stretch in both non-conference and conference play, it’s clear that Loucks can adapt to a roster and get the most out of them. He has better clay to work with this season. Supposing they avoid any non-con pitfalls (which I don’t think there will be many of given how I know they want to schedule), I think this team will be firmly in the bubble conversation down the stretch of the season. How he maximizes this team’s talent could determine whether the NCAA Tournament streak comes to an end or not.
