The first overall pick in the draft has been a QB in 19 of the 25 drafts this century with 2001 being the first draft of this century. The other six drafts have either had an edge (four) or an offensive tackle (two).
- 2025 Cam Ward QB
- 2024 Caleb Williams QB
- 2023 Bryce Young QB
- 2022 Travon Walker DE
- 2021 Trevor Lawrence QB
- 2020 Joe Burrow QB
- 2019 Kyler Murray QB
- 2018 Baker Mayfield QB
- 2017 Myles Garrett DE
- 2016 Jared Goff QB
- 2015 Jameis Winston QB
- 2014 Jadeveon Clowney DE
- 2013 Eric Fisher T
- 2012 Andrew Luck QB
- 2011 Cam Newton QB
- 2010 Sam Bradford QB
- 2009 Matthew Stafford QB
- 2008 Jake Long T
- 2007 JaMarcus Russell QB
- 2006 Mario Williams DE
- 2005 Alex Smith QB
- 2004 Eli Manning QB
- 2003 Carson Palmer QB
- 2002 David Carr QB
- 2001 Michael Vick QB
So it’s a very safe bet that the first overall pick will be a QB, particularly since the Raiders are in dire need of one.
The Denver Broncos do not have a pick in the first round after trading that pick to get Jaylen Waddle, which is a smart move since the chances or finding an elite WR
at 26 are slim. The last time the Broncos didn’t have a first round pick was 2023. Our first pick in that draft was Marvin Mims at 63. The Broncos didn’t have a first round pick in the previous draft as well. In that draft we landed Nik Bonitto with the 64th pick. That’s two really good second round picks after years of making terrible picks in the second round, which I wrote about in the past. Here are a few of the failures that the Broncos took in the second round, not in chronological order.
- Adam Gotsis
- Cody Latimer
- Brock Osweiler
- Alphonso Smith
- Tim Crowder
- Tony Scheffler
- Tatum Bell
- DeMarcus Walker
- Ty Sambrailo
- Montee Ball
- Darcel McBath
- Richard Quinn
- Darius Watts
- Terry Pierce
- Paul Toviessi
The Broncos currently have seven picks this year with one in the second, two in the fourth, and three in the seventh. The Broncos have ended up with seven picks in the last two drafts after having only five in the 2023 draft.
This is a very deep draft so there should be some good talent available for the Broncos in the second and fourth rounds. The Broncos need and IDL to replace John Franklin-Myers and a TE to replace any of them, as they were all poor in 2025.
According to the realistic draft pick values (Fitzgerald-Speilberger, F-S), the Broncos have the second least draft capital to spend in this draft with only 3134 points. Only the Falcons have less with 2909. The money needed to sign the Bronco rookies from this draft is the 3rd least in the NFL at $7.6MM. The Broncos have the least cap space available, but that will change when some expensive vets are released during or before camp.
The 26th pick that the Broncos traded to get Jaylen Waddle has an F-S value of 1349. F-S is a much more realistic pick value relative to the “Jimmy Johnson” chart (which he didn’t invent). The F-S chart assigns realistic value to second, third and fourth rounds picks which are grossly undervalued by the old/outdated chart. The approximate value by pick is shown on the right Y-axis.
