While these report cards are about looking back on someone’s season, it doesn’t entirely seem right in Trea Turner’s case. There was no injury or excuse for why he had the worst season of his career but the format for how we do these report cards doesn’t seem right.
Here is one way to look at it: Trea Turner has seven more years on his contract, with an average annual value over $27 million. He will enter his age 33/34 season in 2027 and is coming off the worst season of his career. The Phillies are still
going to treat him like he’s a star player. He will play shortstop in 2027, albeit on thin ince. He will probably bat at the top of the lineup for most, if not all, of 2027 unless multiple players perform much better than him.
So instead of purely discussing what went right or wrong in 2026, the goal will be to put it all into context for what 2027 could look like. Is this a pure outlier? Is he cooked? The answer is probably somewhere in the middle.
2026 stats: 157 games, .242/.297/.378, .675 OPS, 15 home runs, 58 RBIs, 21 SBs, 21.0% K%, 6.9% BB%, 83 wRC+, 1.1 fWAR
What went right
Not a lot of things went right for Trea Turner but the physical markers are not in a terrible spot. He still ranks in the 98th percentile for sprint speed and he probably stole as many bases as he could with an on-base percentage below .300 and their two best hitters right after him for most of the season.
His 90th percentile exit velocity is roughly similar to his past at 103.6 mph, although a tick lower than in 2025. His bat speed looked normal as well. So the general surface-level physical markers we can use are not indicating he is physically cooked, at least not yet, but it doesn’t entirely tell the full story for him at the plate.
What went wrong
Trea Turner went from being good at making contact against velocity to not being good at it. His whiff rate against pitches 95+ jumped three ticks. His whiff rate against secondary pitches jumped over two ticks and his zone contact rate dropped roughly two ticks.
This all happened with Turner’s pull fly ball rate not spiking so it wasn’t like he was trying to sell out for power either. This is not some easy fix for anyone involved and why we should be very skeptical on 2026 being a complete outlier. He just might not be as good at making contact anymore.
Defensively is where a lot of concerns about 2026 will apply to 2027, at least initially. Trea Turner is going to be their shortstop to start next season. He finished with -10 outs above average at the most critical defensive position in the sport. He shouldn’t play another inning there but there are other factors that are leading to their decision.
With that said, his 2025 shortstop should’ve made him in the running for a Gold Glove but that is more of the outlier than the norm. He was below average at the position in 2023 and 24 with the Phillies, with similar questions about moving off the position. The game might be a little too fast for him at the position.
Luckily, he is someone that still profiles as a solid second baseman whenever he makes the transition. The athleticism is still there and second base would play better for his arm and likely his mind. He would be far from the first defensively challenged shortstop to make a comfortable transition to second base. It also helps that he spent two months at second with the Dodgers in 2021 and looked very good there.
Final Grade: F
He was bad, very bad and he needed to be a star. They gave him chance after chance to right the ship and he never got there. There is no other justified grade if we are purely going off of 2026.
As for what 2026 means for 2027 and beyond, if you combine his 2025 and 2026 slash lines, you get a .271/.325/.416 with a 100 OPS+. Drop a few points because of recency bias and you get roughly realistic expectations for Turner in 2027. Is that good enough to justify what they’re paying him and the role he will play in their 2027 success? No, not even close but that’s a conversation for a different day.
As for the defense? He is not a shortstop and eventually he cannot play shortstop for them. It would be wise to make it work with him at second base as soon as possible but it doesn’t quite have to be opening day of 2026. He can flip there at any point.
With a bounce back as a baserunner, you’re probably looking at a slightly below league-average hitter, miscast as a shortstop while being a very good base runner.
