The non-conference season is over, and without going too far out on a limb, I feel comfortable saying that no one is wildly impressed with the results. The preseason bravado has faded into the past, and reality
is slapping the fanbase in the face with a wet glove. Nobody is suggesting that the Will Wade hire was a mistake (so far – well, there’s always that one guy) but the Wolfpack nation buzz is, “you talk a big game, but you haven’t won any.” And if you said that to Coach Wade’s face, there’s no doubt he’d agree with you – probably in very colorful language. But he’s not done yet.
BTP Whine: Williams / Arceneaux
I had both of these guys as critical pieces in the Wolfpack’s success this season and I am a little concerned about Williams and a whole lot concerned about Arceneaux.
Williams has generally played well, but in the critical game against Ole Miss (a must win, in my opinion) he made too many defensive mistakes (was yanked after 2 minutes) and missed all of his shots from the floor. He has not taken the “I’m the best player and when the going gets tough, I will lead us to victory” role that I think he should, and he really is not playing defense well.
Arceneaux owes us a refund. He’s only played 10 of 13 games, and only twice played at least 20 minutes. This is the guy, that in the preseason, was described as one of the 15 best defensive players in the country. He should be starting. As Coach Wade has said on a couple of occasions, Arceneaux can do things no one else can do on this team. He has an unbelievable vertical leap and is very quick. We need him to turn the corner.
Conclusion:
Okay, sorry Darrion. The numbers look better than I thought. However, checking out for the Ole Miss game was not acceptable (especially since you were rested in the previous game just so you’d be ready to play) and without question your defense needs work. Coach Wade said, “the shoulder’s fine”, and it looked like it was in the Kansas game. You are averaging more fouls per game than at any time in your career. ACC opponents are going to try to get you in foul trouble every game. Fix it.
Terrance buddy, statistically, this is the worst season of your career. Fix it.
The Analytics
KenPom Scouting Report – (the metrics that stand out)
- Adj Efficiency Offense (22nd), Defense (43rd) – the defense has improved dramatically since Auburn
- Effective FG% Offense (19th)
- Turnover % Offense (25th)
- 3P% Offense (17th)
- 2P% Offense (48th)
- FT% Offense (58th)
- Steal % Offense (62nd)
- Non-Stl TO% Offense (23rd)
- Non-conference Strength of Schedule (61) – In the ACC, only Duke played a tougher schedule
- 3PA/FGA: Offense (54th), Defense (356th) <- a well earned terrible defensive score
Bart Torvik Tourney Odds – BT gives the Wolfpack an 93.2% chance to make the tournament, and predicts a 6.6 (?) seed. *
* Caveat: That prediction is based on Torvik’s win/loss algorithm. (similar to KenPom’s). Both sites score themselves on how accurate their algorithm is. Torvik calls it their FUN (fortune/failure unexplained by numbers) score, KenPom calls it their LUCK score. According to their rankings, NC State is no FUN (BT #318) and has no LUCK (KP #336). Take that prediction for what little it’s worth.
The NET
While the VCU and Liberty wins will look good on the resume, especially if (as is a good possibility) they win their respective conferences and make the NCAA tournament, neither are going to help our NET. However, the ACC looks much stronger so far this season, and currently there are plenty of opportunities for Q1 and Q2 wins to boost the NET.
Looking ahead, the schedule is favorable
- January – Right now, Georgia Tech is the only Q4 game in ACC play, and BC, FSU, Stanford, and Syracuse are the Q3 games. Stanford is the last game of the season, but we play the other four in January.
- February – When you’d hope the Pack is at or near it’s best, the schedule is currently 4 Q1 and 3 Q2 opportunities. Resume builder month.
- March is Duke, who will certainly hold serve as a Q1 game, and Stanford, currently Q3 but by that time will have had plenty of opportunities to move up. Both games are at home.
