Today is another milestone on the offseason highway! All 30 clubs must make their decisions on who to keep and who to outright off the 40-man roster by 3 PM CST to protect them from the Rule 5 draft on December 10th at the conclusion of the 2025 Winter Meetings being held in Orlando, Florida!
I think now would be a good time to walk through where the 40-man roster stands, who is being considered to be added, and who could potentially be on the bubble as 3 PM looms today. The week before the Rule 5
draft, like last year, I will run through some options who might be of interest to the Cardinals once the dust has settled and we have a better idea of who could potentially be available. Traditionally, you’re targeting relief pitchers, backup catchers, and bench pieces. Don’t tell the White Sox that after drafting their All-Star representative Shane Smith 1-1 in last year’s Rule 5 draft.
Players I expect to remain on the 40-man roster
C – Ivan Herrera, Pedro Pages, Jimmy Crooks
1B – Willson Contreras
2B – Brendan Donovan, Bryan Torres
3B – Nolan Arenado, Nolan Gorman, Cesar Prieto
SS – Masyn Winn, Thomas Saggese
OF – Alec Burleson, Jordan Walker, Victor Scott II, Lars Nootbaar, Nathan Church
SP – Sonny Gray, Matthew Liberatore, Michael McGreevy, Andre Pallante, Kyle Leahy, Tink Hence, TK Roby, Sem Robberse
RP – Riley O’Brien, JoJo Romero, Matt Svanson, Ryan Fernandez, Gordon Graceffo, Andre Granillo
That’s 30 players who I think are safe this year.
Players to be added to the 40-man
C – Leonardo Bernal, 1B – Blaze Jordan, OF – Joshua Baez, LHP Brycen Mautz, LHP Cooper Hjerpe, and LHP Pete Hansen.
This would bring the Cardinals’ roster to 36.
RHP Austin Love is someone, in my opinion, who should get strong consideration for a spot, as well. Love was 6-1 with a 2.41 ERA with a 27.3 K% in 56 IP for the Texas League Champion Springfield Cardinals. The 11.3 BB% and 3.50 FIP does give some pause, but also taking into consideration Love is scouted with a 70 grade Slider by Fangraphs, that’s Andre Granillo territory and the type of young upside arm the Cardinals should continue trying to push to the major leagues.
Players on the Bubble
UT- Jose Fermin, RHP Chris Roycroft
These two I’m 50-50 on as the addition of Bryan Torres makes Fermin redundant and has shown very little at the MLB level outside of posting a 154 wRC+ this past season in 50 PA’s. I also believe Fermin is out of options and would require waivers to be sent back to AAA next season, and with that in mind, his lack of flexibility could cost him his 40-man spot. For Roycroft, the arm talent is there, his high 90’s turbo sinker is a nightmare for right-handed hitters to try to do anything meaningful against. The problem is that his cutter/slider was trash last season, and even as an MLB reliever, you VERY rarely can exist with only one pitch unless you’re Mariano Rivera (Cutter) or Trevor Hoffman (Changeup); those guys still had other offerings that were at least MLB average or better, but you get the point. If the Cardinals believe they can fix his Cutter and make it a viable weapon against LHH, then running it back for another season wouldn’t bother me as a “Memphis Shuttle” candidate, but if they wanted to explore other options, I’d understand it.
Players I expect to be booted off the 40-man roster
C – Yohel Pozo, LHP John King, RHP Jorge Alcala, LHP Nick Raquet, OF Matt Koperniak
It’s been widely speculated by Cardinals beat writers that the team would likely outright Pozo and then re-sign him to a minor league contract to be a C/1B/DH option at Memphis and emergency depth at AAA in the event of injury, and those same writers speculate that Pozo would be amenable to the opportunity. John King was really disappointing last season, and he’s part of the old regime’s philosophy of pitching, which means his $2.1 million projected salary can safely go back into De-Wallet for someone else. Jorge Alcala was a decent find, and he has loud stuff out of the bullpen. Still, the Cardinals would likely prefer someone with more roster flexibility in that spot, and with him being owed $2.1 million, De-Wallet swallows up more unnecessary spending. Nick Raquet was a nice story in August when he was called up at 3o years old to pitch in Seattle, but he has no long-term future in the big leagues, and with the addition of at least 4 other LHP, a nice story is what he will stay. Finally, Matt Koperniak is staring up at Victor Scott II, Nathan Church, Lars Nootbaar (trade candidate), and Alec Burleson for LHH OF on the depth chart. Koperniak had a miserable start to the season but stabilized in the 2nd half. It likely wasn’t enough for him to hold his 40-man spot, and if he chooses to stay with the Cardinals on a minor league deal, so be it, but he seems to have reached his ceiling with the Cardinals.
The non-tender deadline follows on Friday, November 21st, and I would expect all other players, Donovan, Nootbaar, Romero, Pallante, Gorman, Liberatore, and Burleson to be offered a contract.
From Friday on, MLB will know who and what is out there and available, and teams will begin the process of building back up in their pursuit of 2026 goals and glory!
-Thanks for reading
