The first iteration of 2025’s College Football Playoff reveal is this Tuesday, and it’s expected to be a bit of a mess. It always is, but with the slight change in seeding rules that will no longer see the top
four conference champions get the top four seeds and a bye, deciphering who will land where has become just a little bit more tricky and narrative-fueled. Our attempt is to break through the narratives, escape the dreaded, antiquated AP Poll, and find out who the 12 best teams in the country are. Below, we are going to predict what the top 12 will be versus where I would have them.
Let’s start from the top. The top four, that is.
Ohio State Buckeyes (8-0)
Projected CFP Rank: #1
Our Rank: #1
As they have every week since our first poll, and as they likely will be for the CFP Committee, Ohio State is comfortably the top overall team. Led by redshirt freshman and Heisman front-runner quarterback, Julian Sayin, all everyone is waiting for is The Game on Thanksgiving weekend. Ohio State is the only team in the country that ranks first or second in Game Score, NET success rate, NET yards per play, and both offensive and defensive EPA per play. Ohio State likely will not be remotely tested until they hit the road for Ann Arbor for a game Ryan Day and the Buckeyes haven’t won since before COVID to face a team they will be heavy favorites against, just as they were a season ago. Given the last half-decade of that rivalry, it ranks above any test left on the schedule for any team in the nation.
Indiana Hoosiers (8-0)
Projected CFP Rank: #2
Our Rank: #2
Indiana is the best of the ‘sum of its parts’ teams in the nation. In an attempt for this to not seem backhanded, they are quite easily the second best team in the nation, boasting the best single game Game Score in their road win over Oregon. By sum of their parts, I mean that the Hoosiers can win games in any way needed, a major shift from their team a season ago. Fernando Mendoza is on pace to be in New York for the Heisman Trophy, and IU’s ground game led by Kaelon Black and Roman Hemby is consistent and has recently been dominant. On the other side of the ball, the defense has matched that, forcing 18 turnovers on the season and allowing just one team to rush for over 100 yards…Old Dominion, who rushed for 218 yards in week one. Sure. Cignetti’s teams have always prided themselves on doing every little thing correctly, and their way of slowly wearing down an opponent through the early stages before putting foot to pedal has created a fierce opposition to Ohio State’s three stages of death offense.
Texas A&M Aggies (8-0)
Projected CFP Rank: #3
Our Rank: #4
Easily the most confounding team in this top four, Texas A&M is currently the lone undefeated team overall in the SEC, but their season has been a roller coaster. They beat Notre Dame on the road by one, followed that up by getting into a low scoring dogfight with Auburn, went on the road and stole one from Arkansas after getting nearly 300 yards rushing put on their defense before outscoring LSU 35-7 in the second half of their blowout in Death Valley. They’re top 10 in NET success rate and yards per play, and EPA per play offensively and defensively but also have a negative turnover differential (-1) and have allowed 40 points twice. A&M will have ample chances to further bolster their résumé as they still have road games against Missouri and Texas left, but I’m looking for them to dominate. Finding a consistent high level of play coming off the LSU game will make A&M truly feel like a contender.
Alabama Crimson Tide (7-1)
Projected CFP Rank: #4
Our Rank: #5
Our first team that is truly second place in their conference by record, Alabama has racked up wins over our 9th, 16th, 17th, and 22nd ranked teams but also have the worst loss of any of the top 25 teams. Yes, it was in week one, and this Alabama team has excelled since then, but the flip side of the Oregon ‘you can’t play for the teams you beat’ is Alabama’s ‘you are at the mercy of the teams that beat you’. Florida State dominated Alabama in week one and have played under .500 since then. Now, computers don’t decide these rankings, and that’s ultimately why I think the Tide land within the top four. Outside of our pick, Oregon, there isn’t any real competition for that final fourth spot right now. Texas Tech has a more recent loss and doesn’t have the quantity of quality wins, Notre Dame has two losses, Alabama beat Georgia, and Georgia beat Ole Miss. This feels cut and dry.
So we’ve projected who will be slotted the first round byes. Let’s look at the teams who will be projected to play home games in round one:
Georgia Bulldogs (7-1)
Projected CFP Rank: #5
Our Rank: #9
No team in college football has a horseshoe up its…you know…quite like Georgia. Missed field goals, questionable review calls, fake timeouts, and knockdown drag out fights against teams that should not be competing with this team, Georgia still stands at 7-1 with their lone loss coming at home to Alabama. Our biggest discrepancy in regards to being lower on a team within this top 12 comes here. Georgia’s offense is good, but they continually fluctuate to the opponent they’re playing. They’ve seen two good defenses, and they’ve scored 20 points against them both. Defensively, it’s more of the same. Similar to A&M, they have a negative turnover margin, and they’re allowing over 5.3 yards per play in SEC play. It’s the least Kirby Smart team that’s been in Athens since he took over, and nobody will benefit more from the logo on their helmet in the CFP rankings than the Dawgs come Tuesday night.
Oregon Ducks (7-1)
Projected CFP Rank: #6
Our Rank: #3
The AP and Coaches Poll are determined to tell you that Oregon is not a top five team in the country. I fully believe the CFP Committee will as well. They are, pretty easily, in fact, a top three team, but it’s pretty easy to see why they are not seen as such solely related to their résumé. Simply put, you can win the games you’re supposed to, but you can’t win games for other teams. Oregon had a top-3 win on the road a month ago essentially rendered useless as Penn State’s free fall of five straight losses has completely cratered Oregon’s résumé up to this point. While they do have three games remaining against our top 25 teams — at Iowa, USC, and at Washington — their lack of quality wins up to this point likely keeps them out of the CFP top four on Tuesday.
Ole Miss Rebels (8-1)
Projected CFP Rank: #7
Our Rank: #8
Ole Miss has been chaotic good thus far. They’ve toyed with their food, they’ve also gone on the road and pulled off some big wins. All in all, this is Lane Kiffin’s best shot at the CFP yet, and barring any serious slip-up against Florida or in the Egg Bowl at Mississippi State, expect to see them there. Ole Miss is a jack of all trades, but master of none. They are explosive down the field, defensively challenged, and Trinidad Chambliss has had to shoulder the load of the offense far too often as a middling defense make Kiffin’s passing game have to be great. That being said, they went blow for blow with Georgia before they ultimately took the knockout hook, and they went into Norman and put up numbers against the Sooners defense that no one else has come close to this season. Putting where Kiffin will coach next season aside, this is a team that has earned a slot to host a CFP game right now.
Texas Tech Red Raiders (7-1)
Projected CFP Rank: #8
Our Rank: #6
It would be a net failure of the eye test if BYU is ranked over Texas Tech on Tuesday. By far, the best team in the Big 12 is Texas Tech, and if not for a loss at Arizona State where they were without starting quarterback Behren Morton, Texas Tech would likely still be our #3 team. The Red Raider offense is capable, but the defense is where they get their shine. First in EPA per play allowed, fourth in success rate against, sixth in yards per play allowed, tenth in sacks, tied second in turnovers forced. It’s not just Big 12 good, it’s tops in the nation caliber as they have legit Sunday dudes on that defense and along the front seven. The offense is a very solid unit that compliments the defense well. Their overall numbers are dragged down by Morton missing two games, but they’ve scored 35+ points in seven of nine games, have yet to play a game within 20 points that Morton has started, and are averaging a stout 6.1 yards per play. They also boat raced a very good Utah team on their own field. Do not sleep on the Red Raiders. Should they win out, this is a team capable of stealing a bye.
Now let’s look at the two teams most likely to be tabbed for the two away at-large bids for the first week of the CFP Rankings.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish (6-2)
Projected CFP Rank: #9
Our Rank: #7
Notre Dame had about as bad a start to the season that they could have conceived. They went on the road to Miami in week one and dropped a 27-24 game that they never led. The following week, they dropped their home opener to Texas A&M, 41-40, blowing a 10-point lead and missing a late extra point that led to their defeat. They responded exactly how they had to, and they have not played a close game since, including a 34-24 win over USC that I labeled a must-win for the Irish. Notre Dame has hopped on the backs of Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price who have combined for over 1400 rushing yards and 19 touchdowns. First year starting QB, CJ Carr, has also come along nicely, though he’s shown struggles when Notre Dame is forced to throw the ball as a primary source of offense. Notre Dame likely cannot work themselves into a bye given their lack of quality wins, but winning out should lock up their spot in the CFP.
BYU Cougars (8-0)
Projected CFP Rank: #10
Our Rank: #13
The Cougars are the lowest ranked remaining unbeaten after Georgia Tech fell this past weekend, and while I anticipate them to be an initial at-large road team, I don’t see it lasting. They have been surviving more than winning at times, and while that obviously doesn’t matter to them so long as they’re winning, it’s created the hardest team to rank in the country. I have them ranked three spots lower than a 2-loss Utah team that they beat by a score at home, and that all comes down to winning dominance. BYU has defeated teams in the 76-100 range by an average of just 13 points, the lowest among the top 25 teams, and it’s taken legitimate late game heroics to stave off upsets (Colorado, Arizona). Regardless, BYU does a lot right. They don’t turn the ball over, they create a lot of takeaways, and they have been dominant on the ground. The ultimate test comes this weekend at Texas Tech. The winner not only controls their own destiny in the Big 12, but whoever wins is put in the driver’s seat for any form of an at-large bid as well.
The ACC
There are currently six teams in the ACC with none or one loss. Let’s look at their paths forward.
(30) Virginia
— Despite a loss to ACC foe NC State in week two, the game was a non-conference affair that was played to preserve the rivalry between the schools. This has been huge for Virginia as their lone loss does not count against them in league play. The Cavaliers finish the season with Wake Forest and Virginia Tech at home and Duke on the road sandwiched between. The game at Duke could go a long way in deciding their fate.
(23) Georgia Tech
— The Yellow Jackets suffered their first loss at the hands of NC State this past weekend, and while they still sit second in the standings, don’t let it fool you. Louisville and SMU have played one fewer league game so far, and both hold tiebreakers over Tech. While Tech is on a bye week, a Louisville win over Cal this weekend vaults them over the Yellow Jackets. In most likely scenario, what Tech needs is to win out in league play and either for Virginia to lose at Duke or Louisville to fall at SMU.
(21) Louisville
— As we just touched on, a win for Louisville this week vaults them into second place in the ACC, but after that, things will not be easy for Brohm and co. as they play host to a Clemson team fighting well below their talent level and head to SMU to finish up league play. Should Louisville find themselves in Charlotte, they’ll have earned it.
(28) Pitt
— The deck had to be stacked against someone, and that someone is the Pitt Panthers. A loss to Louisville puts them behind the 8-ball there, and they finish conference play with (23)Georgia Tech on the road and (15)Miami with non-conference opponent Notre Dame still to play next weekend. Good luck!
(37) SMU
— After a massive upset win over Miami last weekend, the Ponies have played their hand right after it appeared a loss at Wake Forest might derail their season. Now, they’ll need some help, but they have road games at (116)Boston College and (83)California with a massive showdown in DFW against Louisville in between. Should SMU win out, they will need a Georgia Tech loss or two UVA losses to clinch an ACC Title berth once again.
(40) Duke
— Darian Mensah and the Blue Devils are playing inspired football after miraculously pulling off an upset win at Clemson (seriously, go look at the ‘How Bad Did We Get Beat’ graph from last weekend…sheesh, Clemson). Their path forward is very clear to see. Win out and beat UVA, that’s step one. Step two is SMU beating Louisville — Duke holds a non-H2H tiebreaker over the Mustangs — and step three is Pitt beating Georgia Tech and losing to Miami. A lot of moving parts, yes, but SMU gets the home field advantage over Louisville, Georgia Tech has looked beatable all season long, and Miami will be favored over Pitt. The Blue Devils are narrow betting favorites to reach the ACC Championship Game right now, so take that for what you will.
