When those TV ads for personal injury attorneys run on TV (which is constantly), you will often see a disclaimer that “past results are not a guarantee of future results”. Which is true, especially because the ads only tout the attorney’s big successes, not the losses.
How is this relevant to Pounding the Rock readers? Because this is my annual Overs and Unders predictions for the NBA’s Western Conference – a tradition unlike any other. Oh wait, that’s the Masters.
Anyway, the attorney disclaimer is especially
appropriate because (a) I am an attorney (non-personal injury division) and (b) I somehow went 11-4 on my preseason over/under predictions for the 2025-26 season. Yes, 11 wins and only 4 losses. Hence – “past results are not a guarantee of future results”. Note that I did not mention my record in prior seasons. Suffice it say those prior predictions were not as good as 11 and 4.
My biggest win last season was on the Vegas preseason prediction for the Spurs. Vegas said 43.5 wins, my prediction was “OVER, OVER, OVER”, and the Spurs won 62. So I went 11-4 overall and nailed the most important prediction.
But that was last season, and I am not one to rest on my laurels. Indeed, I don’t believe I own any laurels, don’t know what they are, and I don’t know how or where or why one would rest on them. Instead, I will wade into the breach once again and try to repeat last season’s successes (as will the Spurs).
Last season’s preseason article started with teams at the top of the conference and went down.. This season I will flip that and start with the lousy teams, ending with the good ones, thereby cleverly leaving the Spurs until the end. Because the Spurs are finally once again good. Very good.
I am adding one thing: how close the 2025-26 Vegas preseason prediction was to each team’s final win total. I will call that HDVD – How Did Vegas Do?
Remember that my past success is not a guarantee of future results. Especially because I have asked some basketball minds that I respect to weigh in on their favorite teams — you can expect some perhaps unjustified fan optimism. And away we go, starting with the dregs of the Western Conference:
Sacramento Kings
HDVD — Last season, Vegas predicted the Kings would win 35.5 games, a total whiff by the “smart guys”. The Kings won only 22.
Despite great fans, this is a very sorry franchise. At least the Clippers have taken over the spot for saddest NBA franchise. Vegas predicts that this year’s Kings will win 21.5 games, even less than last season’s disaster. Long-suffering fan Kings fan Brent weighed in with this:
“The 21.5 O/U number for the Kings is patently offensive—much like the Kings’ defense. On paper, the Kings have the pieces to blow past 22 wins. On the court, history suggests the Kings will try to win 40 games, but will win exactly 21 games, and somehow not even get a top 3 draft pick in return. It seems like a decade ago that the Kings were the 3 seed in the West, but it seems like yesterday that Robert Horry buried that 3 . As a loyal Kings fan, I’m cautiously optimistic about this season with the promise of Darius Acuff, Jr. I’ll take the over.”
New Orleans Pelicans
HDVD — Vegas predicted the Pelicans would win 30.5 games in 2025-26, but they couldn’t even reach that low goal, winning only 26.
This year, Vegas has the Pelicans winning 28.5 games. Like the Kings, another sorry franchise, though the food is better. Do you remember when people thought Zion Williamson would be a true force in the league? Maybe he should play in a city where the food isn’t so good. I have New Orleans as UNDER, again, as does New Orleans resident Steve:
“Wins and losses are less important than proving Bill Simmons’ speculation about the Pels leaving NOLA wrong. Just a few years ago, the Pels were a promising team that was a fun watch with a growing fan base. Now, it’s hard to see a path to the playoffs for the Pels in a stacked conference. I’ll take the under on 28.5 wins but the over on Simmons being wrong and the Pels staying in NOLA.”
Memphis Grizzlies
HDVD — Vegas’s worst over-confident prediction last season. Predicted to win 40.5 wins, the Grizzlies won only 25.
Vegas may have learned its lesson and now has the Grizz winning only 28.5. Memphis grew tired of tying their future to the mercurial Ja Morant, shipping him to Portland after the season. This was after trading Jaren Jackson Jr. to Utah during the season. The new projected starting lineup: Ty Jerome, Cedric Coward, Jerami Grant, Cameron Boozer, and Zach Edey.
That line-up sounds a lot like an UNDER to me.
Los Angeles Clippers
HDVD — Another over-confident Vegas pick: Predicted to win 48.5 wins in 2025-26, the Clips limped in with 42 wins, and then lost to the Warriors in the Play-In round. Of course, news then got worse.
Clippers are the third team that Vegas has at 28.5 wins for this season. That prediction may be the high point for the next four or five years as the Clippers will both lose many games and have already lost all their draft picks for the next five years.The NBA may have done Steve Ballmer a favor by barring him from the arena for a year. I think the overall bad vibes on the team will lead to an UNDER, but Clips fan Adam has an optimistic take for this season:
“OVER. Sure our future has been completely destroyed, but that didn’t affect this year. After an extremely long off season and finally turning the page on trading our future for one Western Conference Finals, Ty Lue has a team with which he typically excels and does have several former All-Stars to utilize. I can see this team fighting for a Play-In spot, but unfortunately our league leading streak of winning seasons is in serious jeopardy. The life of a Clippers fan!”
Dallas Mavericks
HDVD — Vegas predicted the Mavs would win 39.5 games last season, missing badly as the Mavs won only 26 times.
Vegas has Mavs improving to 35.5 wins. Mavs fan Dylan has higher hopes than that:
“I’ll take the over on 35.5. Dallas won 26 games last year, but this team is bigger, longer, and healthier. Dereck Lively II anchors the defense when he’s right (opponents shot 58.5% at the rim against him as a rookie, a mark between Evan Mobley and Bam Adebayo), and Daniel Gafford, Morez Johnson Jr., Santi Aldama, and Zaccharie Risacher add length, plus real shooting, since Aldama and Risacher both shot 35% or better from three last year. Cooper Flagg, now 6’10” barefoot by his own account, is set up for a big second-year leap, and Kyrie Irving is a year and a half removed from his ACL tear. It all hinges on health, but I like Dallas to clear 35.5.”
Utah Jazz
HDVD — The Jazz were predicted to be bad with 19.5 wins, and they were bad, but just not quite as bad as predicted, with 22 wins.
Vegas predicts significant improvement for the Jazz, up to 36.5 wins. I think they will exceed that, so I have OVER. Salt Lake City’s own Steve agrees:
“First: In Danny We Trust
Second: We aren’t trying to tank! Always a big plus when trying to win!
I think we are a 42+ game winner this year. The team is constructed much better and we have more depth than before.
Darryn Peterson is incredible. I watched him live in a couple of summer games and he can flat out play. He is one of the purest shooters I’ve seen. Expect mistakes, but he is a huge boost to the offense.
The “it factor” is that the players love the owner Ryan Smith. He treats them great, he isn’t in it for the personal fame, and the Jazz are a central part of his grand design to build up the state of Utah.“
Portland Trail Blazers
HDVD — Last season, Vegas predicted 34.5 wins. Blazers easily surpassed that, with a winning record at 42 – 40.
Vegas predicts the Blazers will beat that this year with 43.5 wins. Blazers fan Steve takes the UNDER:
“I’ve got the Blazers at 42 wins this year. They have more overall talent than last year, but I just hate how this roster fits together. After a decade of limiting themselves by pairing Lillard with another undersized guard that can’t defend, their big offseason move is putting an even older and slower (and post-injury) Lillard with Ja Morant? Something, something… definition of insanity. At least CJ McCollum could shoot!”
Golden State Warriors
HDVD — Vegas predicted the Ws to win a solid 45.5 games, but injuries to Jimmy Butler and Steph Curry made that impossible. Warriors finished at 37-45.
Vegas has the Warriors below .500 again this year with 39.5 wins. Former college roommate Corey thinks that is an accurate assessment, but leans under:
“Depends when Jimmy Butler gets back. With Jimmy, they’ll be over .500. Without him, they’ll be under .500. Like I said, 39.5 sounds about right. Those Las Vegas guys know their [profanity deleted].”
Phoenix Suns
HDVD — The Suns’ 45 wins vastly exceeded the Vegas prediction on 31.5 wins. Indeed, that was the second biggest over-performance by any team in the conference. We all know which had team had the biggest.
Vegas has the Suns dropping back to 39.5 wins this year. One projection I read said this: “Center Mark Williams is expected to miss roughly the first four months following labrum surgery, opening early minutes for players like Khaman Maluach.” If you are like me, you have never heard of (and cannot pronounce) Maluach. That alone makes the Suns an UNDER for me. Best friend Dave, who lives in Tucson, concurs:
“The Suns are setting on Devin Booker, who has been a high-level scorer his entire career…all of it in Phoenix. The frontcourt isn’t strong enough. The addition of Luke Kennard gives them another shooter to go along with Book and Colin Gillespie. Did they need another shooter? Suns were a nice surprise last year. This year, I say no. Under 39.5 wins.”
Los Angeles Lakers
HDVD — The 2025-26 Lakers outperformed the Vegas prediction of 47.5 win with a surprising 53 – 29 record. They then overcame a bunch of injuries to knock off the Rockets in the first round, before getting swept by OKC in a series that was not as close as 4 – 0 would indicate.
This year Vegas has the Lakers sliding back a bit — good-bye Lebron — to 45.5 wins. Always optimistic Lakers fan Mike disagrees with Vegas:
“Don’t short the Lakers this year boys. Luka and his merry band of young shooters, defenders, rim runners and one very large shot blocker in the middle. I like 50 wins and a 3/4 seed.”
Yup, that is an OVER from Mike. (I think that is Mike’s 27th consecutive “over” for the Lakers.)
Houston Rockets
HDVD — The Rockets 52 wins was slightly less than the 55.5 wins that Vegas projected.
Despite the return of point guard Fred VanVleet, the Rockets are predicted to fall back to 46.5 wins this season. Perhaps Vegas believes that the ageless Kevin Durant will finally start showing his age? If not, having an actual point guard should help the offense, though the defense and rebounding may drop a bit. All in all, I think 46.5 wins underestimates the Rockets. OVER.
Denver Nuggets
HDVD — The best prediction by Vegas last season. The Nuggets’ win over the Spurs in the last game of the regular season put them at 54 wins, right in line with the Vegas prediction of 53.5.
This year, Vegas predicts that the Nuggets will regress a bit to 48.5 games. That regression is probably based on health more than talent because the team still has Jokic, Gordon and Murray, and picked up ex-Spur DeMar DeRozan. DeRozan can still get buckets with the best of them (so long as those buckets, are twos, not threes). Hey, I see the Nuggets also picked up Lonnie Walker IV! I still root for that guy, now in his eighth (!!) year in the NBA. Let’s go OVER on the Nuggets and their two ex-Spurs.
And let’s also root for more Joker passes like this one:
Minnesota Timberwolves
HDVD — Another good prediction by Vegas last season. The Wolves won 49 games, just missing the 50.5 Vegas prediction..
This season’s prediction is similar: 48.5 games. The big news in Minnesota is the team’s pick-up of LeMelo Ball and Jonathan Kuminga, giving up Naz Reid, Julius Randle and ex-Spur Kyle Anderson. Vegas presumably looked at all the changes, threw up its hands, and said “How many games did they win last year? Go with that.” I did something similar — flipped a coin and it came up “tails”. UNDER.
Oklahoma City Thunder
HDVD — At the start of last season, the consensus was that OKC was an unstoppable juggernaut. Vegas had the Thunder winning 62.5 games, and they beat that with 64 wins — an outstanding season. Happily ,four of the Thunder’s regular season losses were to one team, and that same team then beat the Thunder four more times in the playoffs. Put another way, the Spurs provided 8 of the Thunder’s total of 22 losses for the regular season and playoffs combined.
Vegas has OKC winning 60.5 games this season. OKC hopes Jalen Williams will be healthier this season, and that 7’3″ rookie Aday Mara can stand up to Victor Wembanyama better than Chet Holmgren did in the playoffs. The Thunder need both things to happen, because OKC surrendered valuable rotation guys Lu Dort, Aaron Wiggins and Isaiah Joe in the off-season. For me, losing those guys pushes OKC just slightly below 60.5. I have the Thunder as a very slight UNDER.
But the OKC Thunder are still the primary impediment to the Spurs’ quest for the crown.
San Antonio Spurs
HDVD — The Spurs absolutely crushed everyone’s expectations in 2025-2026, including but not limited to Vegas’s 43.5 win prediction. The Spurs’ 62-20 record meant they exceeded the projection by 18.5 “extra” wins — Vegas’s biggest miss of the year, by a lot.
The Vegas 2026-27 prediction for the Spurs is the same as the prediction for the Thunder — 60.5 wins. I don’t think the Spurs will match last season’s 18.5 game over-performance — though a 79 – 3 record would be even more joyous than last season. I am contractually required to say OVER, but this season I will go with just one OVER instead of OVER,OVER, OVER. Let’s bring it on home with a 63-19 record and the number one seed.
