Silly season seems to start earlier and earlier every season, as disgruntled donors and administrations of P4 programs are more and more likely to can coaches mid-season than ever before. Silly season takes
on particular significance when blue blood programs have job openings in the middle of the year, which is the case this season now that Penn State has fired James Franklin and Florida finally put Billy Napier out of his hot seat misery.
The chaos extends beyond those programs though, as teams with successful coaches across the country are now embroiled with speculation as to when and where their coaches will be poached by better (perceptually at least) programs. Mizzou is deeply mired in such chaos as Eli Drinkwitz’s name has been tossed around by just about everyone for multiple job openings this season. As nerve wracking as it may be for Mizzou fans, make no mistake. This is a positive for the program.
As Drinkwitz himself said in the week prior to the Auburn game, having your coaches’ names mentioned as candidates for good jobs means your program is doing well. No one wants to hire a coach who goes .500 every year, and while that was Drinkwitz’s status prior to 2023, since then he’s gone a stellar 27-6. When you win big at a program with the historical record of Mizzou, people and programs take notice. That’s a good thing.
Despite the positives, Mizzou fans have valid concerns that Drinkwitz might get poached this off season. So which programs have the best shot at pulling him away? Here are three that might have a chance:
Florida
Why they have a chance: Of all the programs with current openings, Florida is the only one that has won a championship (two actually) this millennium. They have won three of the things in the last 30 years. It has been proven by more than one coach that Florida is place where good coaches can win at the highest level. That can’t necessarily be said about every job in the SEC.
Florida is also the only current opening in what is, at worst, the second richest recruiting hotbed in the country. It is virtually impossible to bring bad recruiting classes to Gainsville. Even Dan Mullen, who did not even try to recruit, brought in top 15-20 classes every year. For a guy like Eli Drinkwitz, who has proven to be an excellent recruiter to a school that is much harder to pull talent to, the idea of pressing the Easy button in high school recruiting might be awfully tempting.
Why their pitch won’t work: By all accounts, Florida’s top priority is wooing Lane Kiffin away from Oxford this off-season. That makes a lot of sense as Kiffin has experience as a head coach in the state while at Florida Atlantic and has done incredible things with a perennial doormat at Ole Miss. Kiffin is a different cat, though, and may choose to stay where he’s comfortable in Mississippi. If the Gators move on, I’m not sure Eli Drinkwitz would be their second call either. So if he’s not option one or two, would Drinkwitz be interested in being third (or fourth) choice? Hard to say.
Additionally, salary will not be a factor. Drinkwitz already is in the top 10 or 11 in coaching salaries in the country. He is making more than Billy Napier was. If Florida throws a bag at Drinkwitz, Mizzou will be able to, at worst, match that amount. As far as NIL funding goes, Florida seems to have been slow on the uptake in developing a good NIL infrastructure. Not the case for Mizzou, which led the pack in establishing an excellent NIL set up. At worst, the two programs are a wash in that area.
Finally, the expectations and job pressure are just different. Now most, if not all, P4 head coaches have egos the size of Florida and believe they can win anywhere. But Florida has fired their last four coaches. Make that five of the last six. Two of their last three coaches (McElwain and Mullen) won at least one SEC East championship but were fired within four years anyway. Two coaches (Muschamp and McElwain) won an SEC Coach of the Year honor, but were fired within four years anyway. Florida fans have no patience and no chill. At his current pace, Drinkwitz might have a statue built for him outside Faurot Field if he wins 8-9 games a year for the next decade. That record will get him fired by 2030 in Gainsville.
Chance he goes to Florida if offered the job: 25%
Penn State
Why they have a chance: Penn State is a behemoth in their local region as that program owns the Northeast in terms of fan base and recruiting. They have incredible financial and alumni support, judged by the fact that they put more than 100,000 people in their stadium every week. On game days, Beaver Stadium becomes the third largest city in Pennsylvania. On every other day, State College has a population of 41,000.
On top of that, Penn State plays in the Big 10. The Big 10 brings all the money of the SEC (probably a bit more money, actually) without the competition. Penn State will perennially be favored in just about every Big 10 game other than perhaps against three other programs (maybe four if USC ever gains relevance again). The path to a 14 or 16 team playoff is paved in gold for this program and just about any coach they hire should be able to make it at least 50% of the time.
Why their pitch won’t work: Like Florida, I don’t think Drinkwitz is Penn State’s top (or even second) choice. Also similar to Florida, I’m not sure firing a coach who has gone 101-42 in 12 years and just made the national semifinal LAST YEAR is going to attract a lot of top tier coaches. Drinkwitz is a southern guy. He was born and grew up in the South and he has coached his whole career in the South, minus a brief stint at Boise State (yes I know Missouri isn’t the South but we play in the SEC which is basically the same thing.) While geographic fit isn’t as important as it used to be, culturally Drinkwitz and the wine and cheese crowd of Pennsylvania might not be easiest fit.
All in all though, I think Penn State might actually have a better pitch for Drink than Florida if they choose to make it. Being a top dog in the Big 10 is a heck of a lot easier than being one of 10 top dogs in the SEC. That said, I’d be quite surprised if he gets an offer.
Chance he goes to Penn State if offered the job: 50%
Auburn
Why they have a chance: Okay, so Auburn isn’t technically open right now, but after Mizzou handed the blue and orange tigers an overtime loss, the job certainly seems to be, at least spiritually, open. Culturally, this might be the most obvious fit if Drinkwitz was going to make a move. He’s a southerner and Auburn is about as southern as you can get. Plus, Drinkwitz has lived in Auburn, coached at Auburn and won at Auburn as he was on staff when they won the 2010 national championship. Auburn sits deep in the fertile recruiting grounds of Alabama/Georgia/Florida as it is within a two-hour drive of Atlanta and the Florida panhandle.
Additionally, they have an incredibly rabid and supportive (psychotically so?) fan base that is willing to take out title loans on their double wides in order to buy season tickets on the Plains. As the atmosphere of the game against Mizzou can attest, there will never be apathy at Auburn.
Why their pitch won’t work: For just about all the reasons listed above. Drinkwitz has coached at Auburn. He knows how absolutely batsh*t and unreasonable their fanbase is on a daily basis. He won a natty with them in 2010 and while he had moved on by 2012, so had the rest of their coaching staff because they were fired. Also, Auburn treated not one, but two of his friends and mentors, Guz Malzahn and Brian Harsin, like absolute trash. They went as far as trying to fabricate infidelity on the part of Harsin in order to force him out of the job. That’s not something you watch happen to your friends and then sign up to be a part of a few years later.
Chance he goes to Auburn if offered the job: 5%
Having his name bandied about for prolific programs has to be a thrill for Drinkwitz (and his pocketbook.) He owes it to himself and his family to answer every phone call he receives. He’s earned it with the way he has built Mizzou into a consistent winner.
Having said that, in the modern transfer portal NIL era, jobs like Florida and Auburn just aren’t that much better than Mizzou. In Columbia, Eli Drinkwitz is the king of the castle. He has gotten everything he has asked for since he stepped on campus, to the point that it even chased away an athletic director in the process. If he chooses to leave, it will not be because Mizzou did or didn’t do something that peeved him, but rather for personal reasons which are completely subjective.
Ultimately, I don’t think Drinkwitz will leave to take any of these jobs, even if offered. But hey. If he does, Mizzou is in a hell of a better place than it was in late 2019 when he was hired. The facilities improvements and NIL support means the pool Mizzou would be drawing from would be much, much richer than what it was when Jim Sterk brought his first sad-sack list of names to the curators in December 2019. That’s not a bad place to be.
