James Franklin fought valiantly, James Franklin fought nobly, James Franklin fought honorably, and James Franklin died.
I’m halfway through the third season of Game of Thrones on my 5th or 6th rewatch,
and as such my obsession with its lore has grown in tandem with my mandatory interest in College Football. As a result, I’ve begun to see certain parallels between the world of Westeros and the landscape of the NCAA.
While I’m sure the average man would tell you James Franklin is hardly an apt allegory to Rhaegar Targaryen (specifically in the honor department), I think there is an important lesson to glean from everyone’s favorite 6 seasons of dramatic television: Politics control everything.
On paper, Iowa loses this game 9 times out of 10. Penn State has more talent and a much higher pedigree, no argument.After a little scheming, some good spending from the boosters, and some injury magic, however, Iowa opens against the Nittany Lions as a favorite. At 4-2, Iowa faces a challenging yet winnable home game against a College Football blue-blood, potentially giving them the momentum to storm through Minnesota and create a sense of confidence going into their most challenging game of the season against Oregon.
Penn State is a strong opponent. Even with the Northwestern and UCLA losses in mind, the Nittany Lions are no slouch, and they have buttloads of talent on both sides of the ball. But, with enough bravery, and a little cunning, the Hawks may just find themselves winning this football game.
(Blackwater Bay, anyone?)
THE OFFENSE
Three Yards and a Cloud of Mud
Penn State has the 71st ranked rush defense in College Football. Iowa has the 43rd best rush offense and is top 5 in YPC. Not to mention, it’s going to rain. While Gronowski’s status as starter is unshaken, his injury status is still unknown, and it was clear that he was struggling to move effectively against Wisconsin. Expecting that Gronowski isn’t going to be at 100%, and with the return of RVZ giving Gronowski a deep threat on longer downs he had been sorely lacking all season, Iowa should be expected to rely heavily on the run game this Saturday, balancing it out with pocket-based throws from Gronowski.
With Jaz Patterson being the only RB out of the line-up, Iowa will have a good rotation of backs throughout the game. However, Gronowski’s injury status leaves a massive question mark when it comes to Iowa’s primary scoring method this season: QB rushes. Iowa has scored 15 rushing touchdowns this season. Eight of those touchdowns are Gronowski’s. Against Wisconsin, Gronowski showed solid maneuverability, but also demonstrated an inability to decelerate or make cuts, which are imperative to improvisational running. If Gronowski is 100%, this Iowa team could, in theory, run all over the Nittany Lions. If not, Iowa loses its main method of reaching the end-zone, forcing them to rely on the RB room and Gronowski’s ability to beat a very talented secondary. Speaking of Gronowski…
THE BENCH-O-METER – CURRENT STATUS: SPENCER PETRAS BEFORE WE SAW PADILLA PLAY AGAINST OSU
Last Week’s Requirements: N/A
Gronowski’s Stats: 107yds passing, 9yds rushing, 1 rushing TD and 1 INT.
Gronowski had a decent outing against a tough Indiana defense. He followed it up with another decent outing against a really, really bad Wisconsin defense. Granted, Gron was clearly struggling with injury for most of the game, and the Hayden Large one-handed catch was called back which shaved off ~40 yards on his passing total, but altogether the most exciting play produced by a QB this game was Hecklinski’s single completion, wherein he finally proved an Iowa back-up can actually complete a screen pass.
Gronowski faces a pretty solid secondary in Penn State, and even with a homefield advantage, the rain aspect throws a massive wrench in an already awkward passing system. While the run should provide Iowa with a way to win the game, Iowa’s pass game will still need to pick up plenty of slack. Gronowski has yet to throw a touchdown against any teams other than Albany and UMass, both of whom play at an FCS level. (While UMass does not play FCS competition, they most definitely play at an FCS level). To truly kick this offense into gear, this team needs to start scoring passing touchdowns to alleviate the pressure from the RBs. And Wetjen.
Required Stats against Penn State: ~130yds passing, 30yds rushing, 1 passing TD, no INTs.
If Gronowski can establish some semblance of a pass game to compliment the offense, this is a victory, clean and simple. So long as Gronowski manages to game effectively and eliminates stupid turnovers (that pick against Wisconsin was egregious), Iowa should be in a strong position to beat the Nittany Lions in Iowa City.
The Great White Hope
As I mentioned earlier, Gronowski has only thrown three touchdowns this season, all of which were against our two weakest opponents, UMass and UAlbany. There are a myriad of reasons for this drought in passing scores, but with the return of Reece Vander-Zee to the line-up, one of these reasons is seemingly solved. RVZ was Gronowski’s clear first choice throughout the offseason before he was prematurely sidelined with an injury prior to the start of the season. He saw limited action in the 4th quarter against Wisconsin, but is now fully back to the depth chart against Penn State.
RVZ is the closest thing Iowa has to deep threat, bolstering the limited ranks of pro-size receivers in Iowa’s arsenal while also showing amazing speed, agility, and length. RVZ’s addition to the receiver room allows for more flexibility for Gronowski in the pass game, and should hopefully improve this offense’s efficiency by miles. Against pro-size (and arguably pro-ready) corners, Iowa is lucky to gain another deep-threat receiver like RVZ, who should pair well with younger receivers like Dayton Howard and Jarriet Buie.
THE DEFENSE
Kay-Train, Baby
While the conditions seem to play in our favor, tipping the scales towards a run-heavy game with limited passing action, the rain and QB mysteries are a double edged sword. As Penn State prepares for their first game without their three year starter at QB, they aren’t without weapons. Kaytron Allen is a serious threat in the backfield, and is likely the biggest threat to Iowa’s chances.
With all signs pointing toward an insanely risky and frustratingly awkward day for the pass game, Freshman QB Ethan Grunkemeyer isn’t expected to air it out against Iowa, leaving most of the scoring responsibility to Allen. Iowa has a good run defense, but over the course of the season they’ve struggled with completing tackles, giving up large chunks of YAC while letting run plays break into the second level. Kaytron is by far the best RB this team has faced so far, and a team rallying behind a player of his caliber is capable of performing at an exceptionally high level. It’s imperative for the defense to shut the run out and force Grunkemeyer to spread the ball out, capitalizing on mistakes in the passing game.
Battle of the Gro/uns
Gron and Grunk are two sides of the same coin going into this game. Gronowski is a talented QB with an insane amount of experience that struggles in the pass game against FBS opponents while stunning in the rush game. Grunkemeyer is a talented QB with little to no experience that excels in the pass game while lacking in any real mobility. Neither provide an all around answer to a successful offense (at least, not with Gronowski’s injury). Ultimately, despite their disparities, the defensive strategy for this game should be relatively the same for both teams: shut down the run and force the pass.
For Penn State, it’s about forcing Gronowski to throw the ball on important downs, stuffing the run early to create long 3rd down passes. Iowa only converted 5 of their 12 third downs against Wisconsin, exposing a massive weakness in their ability to finish drives. For Iowa, the name of the game is putting pressure on Grunkemeyer. If Gronowski’s time in CFB tells us anything, it’s that playing in Kinnick for the first time is very, very hard. A hostile environment and wet conditions creates mistakes, mistakes that the Iowa defense can easily capitalize on. Stuffing Kaytron Allen puts the ball in Grunkemeyer’s hands, giving this Iowa defense a better shot at actually generating the mistakes it so desperately needs to actually come out on top this weekend.
Even despite opening as favorite, this is no easy win for the Hawkeyes. Really, this game is still a 50/50. Whether or not this Penn State team has collapsed after losing their beloved Head Coach and starting quarterback has yet to be determined, and it’s a very real possibility that this team has rallied behind their interim coach and talented roster in any effort to win out and potentially run the table. This is a make or break game for Penn State, and ultimately, it is for Iowa, too.
With a win here, at home, Iowa can go into the Minnesota game with enough momentum to (hopefully) slide past the Gophers and settle into the bye before taking on their toughest challenge yet: Oregon. Winning here likely means going into the Oregon game at 6-2 with enough motivation to move mountains. A loss makes this team 5-3 or potentially 4-4, jeopardizing any real chance at making something out of this year.
And, as painful as it is to say, there’s nothing any of us can do but wait.
As always,
GO HAWKS!
