The MLB Draft is only 8 days away, which means we are firmly in mock draft season. For a while, the Nats were being heavily connected to high school two-way player Jared Grindlinger. However, as we get closer to the draft, the winds seem to be shifting towards a college hitter. Both MLB Pipeline and Baseball America mocked Mississippi State infielder Ace Reese to the Nats, with Pipeline saying that the Nats “like” Reese.
When you look at Reese’s profile, there is a lot to like. There is a strong argument to be made that Reese has been the most productive hitter in the SEC the last two seasons. After transferring from Houston to Mississippi State following his freshman year, the infielder hit the ground running. Reese hit .352 with 21 homers and a 1.140 OPS. This year he had a strong follow up campaign, hitting .336 with 24 homers and a 1.152 OPS.
With Ace Reese, you are buying the bat. He is a third baseman right now, but his speed and defense are fringy. The 6’4 slugger has a chance to stick at third, but there is also a real possibility he will have to move to first base. With that sort of profile, you have to be very sure about the bat.
There is certainly a strong case that Reese has an elite bat. He has plus in game power and makes more contact than your average slugger. Reese has a real chance to be a .260ish bat with 30 home run power. Even at first base, that bat would play in a real way.
However, his offensive profile is not perfect. The biggest flaw in Reese’s offensive profile is his tendency to chase. In each of the last two seasons, he has chased more than the average hitter. His contact numbers also took a slight step back this year, though he does not have a bad hit tool by any means.
Between the chase rates and the slight hit tool concerns, there are more yellow flags in the offensive profile than you would like to see from a bat first guy. You have to worry a little bit about whether his chase issues could be exploited more as he gets into the upper minors and the big leagues. Reese has the power as his calling card, but with his lack of patience, he will also have to hit for a reasonably high average to be a high end bat.
Reese is in a big clump of college hitters who all had good years but left some questions. Our guy Paul made a very cool graphic comparing some of their underlying data. As you can see, Reese has elite power and is a barrel machine. However, the chase and whiff does create some risk in the profile.
Honestly, Reese’s profile is not too different from Ethan Petry, who the Nats took in the second round last year. Petry had some chase in his game, which has actually gotten better in pro ball. Reese chases more than Petry did, but he also has a better hit tool.
I am a bit higher on Reese than Paul is because I have more faith in the hit and power combination. However, if they were to pick Reese at 11, I would like it to be on an underslot deal. In the MLB Pipeline mock, the Nats take Reese over Chris Hacopian and Tyler Bell, which would be interesting to say the least. Bell is a more well rounded profile than Reese, and Hacopian might be the best pure hitter in the draft.
The appeal with Ace Reese is real though. This is a player who can hit absolute tape measure shots and has a gorgeous swing. He has good bat speed, barrels balls up with ease and has a real chance to be at least a 30 homer bat. True middle of the order bats are not easy to find, and Reese has that potential.
It feels crazy, but the draft is just over a week away. Paul Toboni and the scouting team are entering crunch time when it comes to who they pick. For a while, it seemed like they wanted to make a big swing on Grindlinger, and that is still possible. However, as draft day gets closer, it seems like they are falling back on the safety of taking a college hitter.
