As we rapidly approach the halfway point of the college football season — immersing ourselves deeply within conference play — we begin to uncover, more and more, the true identity of each Big Ten team.
It was a fairly simple slate of games in the Big Ten this week, with a handful of in-conference matchups highlighted by a tight game between Washington and Maryland and a dramatic loss for the No. 7 Penn State Nittany Lions in Pasadena.
In this week’s Big Ten Power Rankings, we take a close look at each team’s body of work up to this point in the season. When comparing teams head-to-head, I will first answer the question: “Who would be favored if these teams were to play head-to-head?” From there, if no obvious favorite exists, I will be specifically focused on comparing relative strength of victories and strength of losses to determine appropriate rank.
Note: All AP Top 25 rankings listed represent the current rank of the team, not the rank at the time of the game.
1. No. 3 Oregon (-)
Wins (5): Montana State, Oklahoma State, Northwestern, Oregon State, Penn State
Losses (0): N/A
Scoring Margin: +31.5 (2nd in FBS)
It’s a crime that Oregon is not ranked above Ohio State in the AP Top 25. Oregon only has one non-power four conference victory, and their most impressive win was away, in Happy Valley, at the Penn State whiteout game. Meanwhile, the Buckeyes have played two non-power four conference games, and their most impressive performance was against Texas. However, they faced the Longhorns at home, in Arch Manning’s first-ever game, and won by just seven points.
Dante Moore has played like a Heisman contender through five games, and the Ducks defense is 7th in points allowed. Dan Lanning’s team, at this moment, is the best in the nation.
2. No. 1 Ohio State (-)
Wins (5): Texas, Grambling, Ohio, Washington, Minnesota
Losses (0): N/A
Scoring Margin: +23.0 (7th in FBS)
Though Ohio State hasn’t really played a game of significance, it has taken care of business in dominant fashion. The Buckeyes’ most notable quality is their defense, which has limited its opponents to a nation-leading 5.0 points per game — on average, teams do not score a single touchdown in games against the Ohio State defense. Led by former NFL head coach Matt Patricia and some incredible performances from defensive end Caden Curry, this is the best defense in the nation.
However, I think this Buckeye team still has a lot to prove. Despite a nation-leading 80.2% completion percentage, sophomore quarterback Julian Sayin hasn’t been placed in uncomfortable passing situations, having mostly been assigned short, first-read throws to talented offensive playmakers. Will Sayin be up to the task in the coming weeks against ranked Big Ten opponents? Ohio State faithful must hope so.
3. No. 7 Indiana (-)
Wins (5): Old Dominion, Kennesaw State, Indiana State, Illinois, Iowa
Losses (0): N/A
Scoring Margin: +29.5 (3rd in FBS)
Indiana 63, No. 17 Illinois 10: That’s the most impressive win in the Big Ten so far this football season. Unlike Indiana’s playoff team last season that went the whole year without a ranked win, this year’s edition of the Hoosiers already has one against a N0. 17 Illinois team (while continuing to beat the brakes off of each of their opponents).
What’s the difference? Fernando Mendoza, the junior transfer from UC Berkeley, who sports the second best passer rating in all of college football. The key for Mendoza has been efficiency, as the standout signal caller has completed 73.0% of his passes while maintaining a ridiculous 16-1 TD/INT ratio.
Indiana versus Oregon this Saturday will be must-see TV.
4. No. 15 Michigan (-)
Wins: New Mexico, Central Michigan, Nebraska, Wisconsin
Losses (1): No. 6 Oklahoma
Scoring Margin: +16.6 (17th in FBS)
This has been a somewhat polarizing season for Wolverine football fans. At home last week against Wisconsin, Michigan controlled the game, winning the turnover battle and outgaining the Badgers 445-252. Donaven McCulley caught a long 29-yard touchdown pass, and the defense was in control the entire game. However, in the games against Nebraska and Oklahoma, the passing offense has really struggled. Against the Sooners, Underwood was 9-for-24, and McCulley caught just three passes.
Though the Wolverines have the most talent of the Sherrone Moore era, they’re going to have to be more consistent in their upcoming games against the likes of USC, Washington and Ohio State if they want to become legitimate Big Ten contenders.
5. Penn State (-)
Wins (3): Nevada, Florida International, Villanova
Losses (2): N0. 3 Oregon, UCLA
Scoring Margin: +14.5 (23rd in FBS)
Somehow, James Franklin still has a job after the Nittany Lions suffered the worst loss of the college football season against UCLA, who was an ugly 0-4 entering the matchup. Though I stood besides Franklin after PSU’s loss to Oregon the week prior, for me, this game was the final straw. Tim Skipper, UCLA’s interim head coach, now has as many top-ten wins as Franklin after just three weeks as head honcho.
And yet, with all their talent and their +14.5 scoring margin, the Nittany Lions still belong at N0. 5 in these power rankings. Even if it was playing on the road, Penn State would still be favored against teams ranked Nos. 6-18 on this list because of the NFL talent — Dani Dennis-Sutton, Zane Durant, Kaytron Allen, Nick Singleton — that still exists on this team.
6. No. 17 Illinois (-)
Wins (4): Western Illinois, Duke, USC, Purdue
Losses (1): No. 7 Indiana
Scoring Margin: +5.8 (49th in FBS)
Penn State over a 4-1 Illinois ranked N0. 17 in the country? Yes. When looking at Illinois’ body of work this season, it’s really hard to ignore Indiana’s complete destruction of the Fighting Illini in Week 4. Illinois was run off the field, losing 63-10 and getting outgained 579-161. Indiana had the ball for nearly 40 minutes, gaining 31 first downs.
Though Penn State took that bad loss against UCLA last Saturday, Illinois’ loss against Indiana was worse. When playing No. 3 Oregon, Penn State proved it could compete at a high level against the best teams in the nation. But when playing No. 7 Indiana, Illinois proved it can’t. I love Hank Beatty, but Penn State is a better football team than Illinois.
7. USC (-)
Wins (4): Missouri State, Georgia Southern, Purdue, Michigan State
Losses (1): No. 17 Illinois
Scoring Margin: +25.4 (4th in FBS)
The Trojans are one of the nation’s highest-scoring teams, fueled by a powerful quarterback-to-wide receiver connection between Jordan Maiava and Makai Lemon. The problem for USC has been its defense, which has conceded over 30 points in each of its last two conference games against Michigan State and Illinois. USC can score with everybody, but its defense has not shown that it can get enough stops to contend with the conference’s top teams.
8. Nebraska (+3)
Wins (4): Cincinnati, Akron, Houston Christian, Michigan State
Losses (1): No. 15 Michigan
Scoring Margin: +19.8 (12th in FBS)
After winning their three non-conference games by an average of 41 points, Cornhusker fans were very excited at the possibility of a breakout season. And, though Nebraska suffered a heartbreaking 30–27 loss at home against N0. 15 Michigan, it has continued to play really good football in Big Ten play. Dylan Raiola’s completion percentage is up 7.1% from last season (74.2% this year), and his TD/INT ratio has improved from 1.18 to 6.0, a major improvement. With a relatively easy conference schedule remaining, it’s not crazy to say that Nebraska has a legitimate chance to run the table and finish 11-1. Do not sleep on this Cornhusker team.
9. Washington (+1)
Wins (4): Colorado State, UC Davis, Washington State, Maryland
Losses (1): No. 1 Ohio State
Scoring Margin: +9.5 (39th in FBS)
Washington has been impressive so far this season. Though the Huskies struggled to score against the Buckeyes’ suffocating defense front, their defense held the Buckeyes to just 24 points, most of which came late in the second half. And then, despite the defeating home loss to Ohio State, the Huskies went on the road and downed Maryland, scoring 24 straight points after trailing 20-0 late in the third quarter to come back and beat the Terrapins. With Michigan, Illinois and Oregon still on the schedule, don’t be surprised if Washington pulls off an upset in the latter part of the season.
10. Iowa (-2)
Wins (3): Albany, UMass, Rutgers
Losses (2): N0. 22 Iowa State, No. 7 Indiana
Scoring Margin: +10.5 (35th in FBS)
Though none of Iowa’s wins have been impressive, its losses have been. Iowa played tough against No. 22 Iowa State, losing by just 3 points, and played No. 7 Indiana even tougher, forcing Mendoza’s first interception of the season.
The key for the Hawkeyes in Big Ten play will be if receivers Sam Phillips and Jacob Gill can find a way to get open downfield, giving senior quarterback Mark Gronowski a chance to take some shots. Against ranked opponents, Iowa’s been held to 14 points and 137.5 passing yards per game. The Hawkeyes are going to need to do better than that if they want to make some noise.
11. Maryland (-2)
Wins (4): Florida Atlantic, Northern Illinois, Towson, Wisconsin
Losses (1): Washington
Scoring Margin: +14.0 (25th in FBS)
It feels like Maryland saw its season slip away in the fourth quarter of its matchup last weekend against Washington. In a “prove-it” game, at home in front of a raucous crowd in College Park, the Terrapins led 20-0 with under four minutes remaining in the third quarter. From that point forward, the Terrapins were outscored 24-0, gaining just 52 yards on offense. They have a defensive star in linebacker Daniel Wingate — third in tackles in the Big Ten. But, in big moments, Malik Washington and this Maryland offense have to be better.
12. Michigan State (+1)
Wins (3): Western Michigan, Boston College, Youngstown State
Losses (2): USC, Nebraska
Scoring Margin: -1.5 (75th in FBS)
After underwhelming in out-of-conference play despite going 3-0, the Spartans have played tough against two good opponents. Against USC, Michigan State was competitive entering the 4th quarter, down just 31-24 before the Trojans pulled away late. The storyline was similar against Nebraska, who won 38-27 after the game entered the final quarter deadlocked at 21. If the Spartans can play four quality quarters, this team certainly has bowl potential.
13. Minnesota (-1)
Wins (3): Buffalo, Northwestern State, Rutgers
Losses (2): California, No. 1 Ohio State
Scoring Margin: -9.0 (97th in FBS)
It was a rough go for Minnesota last week against Ohio State. The Golden Gophers took their second loss of the season, once again struggling offensively when facing a notable opponent. Against the Buckeyes, the Golden Gophers leading receiver was tight end Jameson Geers, who caught just one pass for 25 yards. To be competitive, Minnesota has to find a way to throw the ball like they have in their three wins. For now, they’re N0.11.
14. Northwestern (-)
Wins (3): Western Illinois, UCLA, Louisiana Monroe
Losses (2): Tulane, No. 3 Oregon
Scoring Margin: -0.5 (69th in FBS)
Ahh, the home Northwestern Wildcats. All season, Northwestern has had success running the football, ranking 35th in the nation at 196.0 yards per game. Despite an injury to star running back Cam Porter, Caleb Komolafe has heeded the call, averaging 4.5 yards a carry and getting in the end zone for four touchdowns. Better yet, Preston Stone seemed to be a different quarterback in Week 6 against ULM, tossing three touchdown passes and racking up 262 passing yards. Entering another “prove-it” game on the road against Penn State, Northwestern hopes to stay competitive.
15. Wisconsin (-)
Wins (2): Miami OH, Middle Tennessee
Losses (3): N0. 8 Alabama, Maryland, No. 15 Michigan
Scoring Margin: -1.2 (73rd in FBS)
Wisconsin has no spark. Though each of its losses have come against quality power-four opponents, the Badgers were uncompetitive in each of their three losses, scoring just over 11 points per game. Likely without starting quarterback Billy Edwards Jr. again this weekend, Badger fans will continue to find themselves waiting for basketball season.
16. Rutgers (-)
Wins (3): Ohio, Miami OH, Norfolk State
Losses (2): Iowa, Minnesota
Scoring Margin: +4.5 (54th in FBS)
Down 31-28 with 3:19 to go, Athan Kaliakmanis had a chance to lead his players down the field and steal a win in Minneapolis. Though the drive had a promising start, the offense faltered after crossing midfield, forcing a 56-yard field goal try that proved to be too long for the leg of Dane Pizzaro. Rutgers has fought hard in Big Ten play, but a lack of late-game playmaking has proven to be costly. Yet, if the Scarlet Knights can figure things out, a bowl berth is still in play considering their current 3-2 record.
17. UCLA (+1)
Wins (1): Penn State
Losses (4): Utah, UNLV, New Mexico, Northwestern
Scoring Margin: -12.6 (108th in FBS)
UCLA beat the 0-12 allegations, pulling off a stunning 42-37 upset victory against Penn State. Nico Iamaleava’s five-star talent was on full display, as the Tennessee transfer accumulated 394 all-purpose yards and five all-purpose touchdowns. Though it’s really hard to identify what this UCLA team is going to look like moving forward this season, the Bruins now have a better win than many teams in the Big Ten. If UCLA can grab another win on the road in East Lansing this weekend, they will be major risers in these power rankings.
18. Purdue (-1)
Wins (2): Ball State, Southern Illinois
Losses (3): USC, No. 16 Notre Dame, No. 22 Illinois
Scoring Margin: -6.8 (90th in FBS)
Purdue’s offense can run up the score, putting up an average of 28.5 points per game in back-t0-back weeks against ranked opponents. However, outside of standout linebacker Charles Correa, who’s fifth in the Big Ten with 43 tackles, this is the worst defense in the Big Ten. After allowing over 45o yards of total offense in three straight weeks, Purdue will look to right the ship on the road against Minnesota.
