Despite six straight losses — five coming to start off Big Ten play — the Purdue Boilermakers are not a complete disaster. In fact, they have the same number of wins as two other teams the Michigan Wolverines
have already beaten this year (Wisconsin, Michigan State) and sit higher than both at No. 77 in SP+, with the offense (79th) and defense (81st) right around that overall ranking.
Obviously, Purdue is not scoring enough points right now, with a 17.6 PPG mark in conference play ranking 116th nationally. However, this is hardly the fault of the run offense. At 152 YPG on the ground, the Boilermakers are middle of the pack, as are their 6 rushing touchdowns. But at 5.17 YPC, this is a top-25 run game in terms of efficiency against conference opponents, making this a matchup to watch on Saturday.
The engines that could (find the end zone someday)
Though Michigan did not face Purdue last season, this will actually be its third time facing running back Devin Mockobee. As a freshman, Mockobee logged 17 carries for 71 yards and a touchdown in the 2022 Big Ten Championship Game, then struggled the following season in Ann Arbor, running for just 2.92 YPC on 13 attempts in the blowout loss. Overall, the stats for his final year are on pace with the priors, which is going to give him a strong overall career in West Lafayette.
Mockobee is not an elite athlete, but he runs hard and keeps the ball moving. In Big Ten games he has 320 yards on 67 carries for a very respectable 4.78 YPC, ninth among running backs with at least 50 attempts in-conference. That oddly has translated to just one score, but that likely is a function of the Boilermakers falling behind so often; when they are able to get him the ball, it usually turns out to be beneficial.
Joining Mockobee in the backfield is Virginia Tech transfer Malachi Thomas. While Thomas is definitely the change-of-pace back, he has made the most of his touches: in the last three games he has 14 carries for 117 yards (8.35 YPC). Like his running back partner, Thomas has also done his damage without impacting the scoreboard, having yet to find the end zone, but it feels just like a matter of time.
Opposite day
Strangely, the Michigan run defense has somewhat ended up with the opposite problem. Even with the USC debacle, Big Ten opponents are running for just 3.19 YPC against the Wolverines (just 2.28 YPC for non-Trojan offenses), but have scored 6 rushing touchdowns in those five games. That is not a terrible number of touchdowns to allow, but it feels a little higher than expected given the down-to-down success.
Saturday night brings an interesting matchup when the Purdue offense tries to run against Michigan. The defense should be favored here given its track record and recruiting profile, but Mockobee is not easy to take down and Thomas could certainly break one loose. Neither rusher is going to see this game as the one that suddenly brings positive regression to their touchdown numbers, but the Wolverines have allowed a rushing score in four straight, so who knows.
The biggest challenge for the visitors will again be game script. If Michigan can get ahead early, Purdue is going to have to throw, even if Mockobee is picking up four or five yards a carry. A steady run game is just not enough to help reverse what likely becomes a big deficit, and the senior rusher is unfortunately looking at loss No. 3 against the Wolverines in his career. If he continues to run hard and grind out yardage, at least he will be remembered with an air of respect.
