Coming off their second buzzer-beater loss in 10 days, the Portland Trail Blazers will travel to San Francisco to take on the Golden State Warriors tonight.
NBA Cup Implications
This game marks the Blazers’ third NBA Cup bout.
Currently, they sit at fourth in the group, ahead of only the Golden State Warriors. Their placement is solely the product of point differential, with every team sitting at 1-1. To have a puncher’s chance at overcoming the “Group of Death,” the Blazers must win tonight’s game by a significant margin.
The Group Stage standings paint a bleak picture for Blazers fans (or, more likely, the Blazers fan) with significant emotional investment in the NBA Cup.
I tried my very best to work out all of the possible outcomes here, but none of us are on a basketball forum for combinatorial mathematics, so here is the most optimistic scenario:
If the Blazers finish 3-1, defeating both the Warriors and Spurs, the Rockets or Nuggets may also finish 3-1. If the Nuggets and Blazers tie, the Blazers own the head-to-head tiebreaker, so they would advance. If the Rockets tie the Blazers, the Rockets would advance, as “24-point butt-whooping” is the first criteria considered in the tiebreaker.
Without delving into the other 14,000,605 possible universes, we can devise a winning strategy for the Blazers: Beat the other team by a lot of points. They can work out the nuances of that strategy tonight against the Warriors.
The Warriors Report
The Warriors still employ Stephen Curry, which may place Portland’s gameplan in jeopardy. Even in his advanced age, Curry still cashes in on 39% of his threes on 11 per game. Jimmy Butler contributes an additional 18 points per game on 54% shooting, while Draymond Green is averaging being really good at defense and 11 potential technical fouls.
The Warriors have been a top-notch defense this season, posting the fifth best defensive rating in the league. That said, they sit below league-average in defensive rebounding, making them vulnerable to the likes of Donovan Clingan, the league leader in offensive boards.
All in all, they’re still the same-old Warriors: They will run complex screen actions to get Steph Curry an open three; they will move on those screens and we will all yell at our TV; they will be sound in their defensive rotations and swing the ball effectively. The Warriors are still good, and the Blazers must play clean, efficient hoops to overcome them.
The Blazers Report
“Ow,” said the Blazers’ roster, collectively.
Injuries have piled up to create one giant injury pile, upon which defeat has built its throne. That was way too dramatic, but injuries have suddenly and profusely impacted the Blazers’ ability to win basketball games. The exuberance that permeated the first week of the regular season has been replaced by Bulls fans wondering if they will ever receive the Blazers’ lottery-protected first-round pick. Fans ought to remember though: a season ebbs and flows. This moment in time just happens to be a fairly big ebb.
The Blazers’ gameplan has been largely predicated upon hockey-style line changes allowing them to maintain excessive pressure and pace. As injuries continue to pile up, though, the effectiveness of this gameplan has faltered. Though they still attempt the most field goals in the NBA, their worsening offensive production has minimized the value of those attempts.
Against the Warriors, the Blazers’ injury report continues to look like an itemized CVS receipt. Such a laundry-list of inactive players requires the Blazers’ top-end talent to continue to perform. They can no longer afford an off-night from Deni Avdija or Jerami Grant, lest they want to be treated to a lot of Yang Hansen minutes (I wouldn’t complain, personally). They must take care of the ball, win in second-chance points, and dare anyone not named Stephen Curry to beat them.
What you need to Know
Portland Trail Blazers (6-9) vs. Golden State Warriors (9-8) – Fri. Nov 21st – 4pm Pacific
How to watch via antenna or cable: See your options on the Rip City Television Network.
How to watch via streaming: BlazerVision in Oregon and Washington; League Pass everywhere else
Trail Blazers Injuries: Scoot Henderson, Damian Lillard, Matisse Thybulle, Blake Wesley (out); Jrue Holiday, Shaedon Sharpe, Robert Williams III (questionable); Jerami Grant (probable).
Warriors Injuries: DeAnthony Melton, Jonathan Kuminga (out); Buddy Hield, Draymond Green, Jimmy Butler (probable).
What to Watch For
The Leaderboard. To analyze the playoff implications of an NBA Cup game in November is ludicrous, but so are the Western Conference standings. A sizable gap has emerged between the West’s top 8 and everyone else. The Blazers currently sit at 9th, with a 6-9 record. They sit one spot, but two games behind the 8th place Warriors at 9-8. The season is young, but for the Blazers to crawl out of play-in contention and into the big leagues, they must convert early-season games into wins.
Steph Curry. The Blazers employ two fast, durable wings in Kris Murray and Toumani Camara, who, in previous matchups, have done a respectable job chasing Stephen Curry around (moving) screens.
Point Disparity. The NBA Cup does not accept weakness and takes no prisoners. To advance in the tournament, the Blazers must win by a substantial margin. If they do not, they may find themselves in a situation where their point differential prevents their promotion.
What Others Are Saying
Steve Kerr commented on the rampant, league-wide increase in injuries, attributing the trend to an increase in pace (the Blazers might agree):
