The Miami Dolphins teased us with a 13-3 halftime lead over the New England Patriots in Week 8. But then the real Dolphins showed up and ended up losing 24-19, despite drawing close late. Here’s what I saw upon initial watch.
THE OFFENSE WASN’T GREAT, BUT WASN’T THE CULPRIT
I’m sure most of you are like “WHAT?!?!?” But hear me out on this. The Dolphins had a rough 3rd quarter in which they only gained 6 net yards. That is bad, but there are some circumstances behind that. There were some additional issues that need to be cleaned up. First would
be the number of sacks. Willis was sacked 5 times, 3 of which occurred on the 1st 2 drives. Everyone will want to blame the new guy – Jarrett Kingston – but I saw All-Pro Aaron Brewer get blown up a few times also. The entire OL was an issue early on. They started to settle down later though. The run game was less effective than it has been, but as I pointed out Friday in Three Reasons Why, the Pats are good in run defense, limiting teams to under 4 yards per carry. BUT… I like that Willis spread the ball around with 9 different players getting a target. Overall, I thought Willis played with command of the offense and looked decent. His stats weren’t “elite” and there was the interception that doinked off the helmet of a Pats player, but he was not the problem in this game. Gordon got it going late and the WRs did well against a stingy Patriots secondary. They had their moments. However…
THE DEFENSE IS MOVING IN THE WRONG DIRECTION
Anytime there is a new coach and a new scheme, it takes some time for players to adjust. That is especially pronounced with a young roster like the Dolphins have. I was hoping to see some improvement to this point in the season. But alas, that just isn’t happening. The stats reveal the issues. Let’s start with pass defense.
The Dolphins are allowing a completion percentage of 76.9%, which is on pace to be the worst in league history. Anyone and everyone can complete a pass against the Dolphins. I would argue that one of us could complete a pass against this defense. In 7 games this season, the Dolphins have allowed 195 pass attempts. Only 45 total have fallen incomplete. 4 of those INTs and the Dolphins are dead last in passes defensed at 13. They aren’t stopping anyone from catching the ball. They are allowing 8.3 yards per attempt, which is tied for 2nd worst. Teams are passing at will against the Dolphins, to the point it seems they don’t even have to try hard. Almost any time an opponent drops back to pass, their pass catchers are wide open; the Dolphins defenders aren’t around the ball. On the 2 TD passes for NE, the receivers were wide open. It’s just too easy. It is unacceptable.
The run defense is another issue. If you look at YPC allowed, the Dolphins are actually respectable, tied for 7th at 3.8 YPA. But that is mostly due to volume. The Dolphins allow 29.7 attempts per game, which is 2.8 higher than the league average. Teams run a lot against the Dolphins. The Dolphins had 2 good games against opponents, where they limited them to under 100 rushing yards. But they have allowed 100+ rushing yards in the last four games, and have allowed at least one RB in each of the last 4 games to average over 4 yards per carry. They aren’t getting stops either. In Sunday’s game, they allowed the RBs to gain critical yards late to keep drives alive and ultimately finish off the Dolphins. It’s not a time of possession issue either. The Pats only had the ball about 2 minutes longer than the Dolphins.
The Dolphins are also bad in terms of getting off the field. They are 2nd worst in the league at 3rd down conversion percentage at 50.6%; only the Cowboys are worse. In 7 games, the Dolphins have forced 18 punts, which is 2nd worst – Cincy has forced 17 punts. That’s an average of 2.6 per game. League average is 28.3 and 3.8 per game. The Dolphins have only produced 6 turnovers. The Dolphins allow 2.74 points per drive, which is second worst – Buffalo is at 2.76.
Nothing exemplifies what the defense is more than the final sequence of events in this game. The Dolphins scored a late TD to make it a one score game. They didn’t get the onside kick, but had a timeout plus the 2 minute warning. It was a long shot, but a stop on 3rd down means the Dolphins would get the ball back for a slight chance to make a play. The play sequence: 2 yard pass – 2 minute warning, 3 yard run – timeout. Here is the chance for the stop. Get a stop and get about a 1 minute to do something… 5 yard run. 1st down. Game over.
My entire point here is that the defense is a massive problem. We Dolphins fans tend fixate on the QB and OL. It’s always their fault for every loss and we even find issues in the victories. We all knew coming in that Malik Willis was going to need some refinement and is probably not the long-term answer. But we should stop worrying about him for the moment because that isn’t getting fixed in 2026. We’ve all heard the adage “defense wins championships”. Miami is barely fielding a defense that could reach a below-average status, let alone a defense worthy of being in the playoffs. This group is bad and what’s worse is there are only a handful of players that could be considered building blocks within the group.
Right now, I would say Zach Sieler, Chop Robinson, Jordan Phillips, Jordyn Brooks, Jacob Rodriguez, and Chris Johnson are the only players deserving of a prominent role next season. And really, that all depends. Rodriguez started hot but has started falling off in recent games. Johnson is ok at this point. You may see those names and think that’s half of the starters. But teams need at least 3 pass rushers, 4 defensive tackles, 4 linebackers, 5 corners, and 3-4 safeties. Miami has 6 out of 20 for next season and one of them is over 30 years old. They need 2 additional edge rushers to have a solid trio. They need 2 additional DTs, particularly one that is a pass rusher. They have half of the needed LBs, though I’ll be somewhat lenient towards Trey Moore because he hasn’t played yet. But he’s a 4th round pick, so expectations should be limited accordingly. They have 1 CB out of 5 and 0 safeties out of 4. Not only is this not getting fixed in 2026, but it’s not getting fixed in 2027 either. Not completely. Even with the high draft pick and all the FA money, they’ll likely get 4 of those things fixed. Why only 4? Because counting on every draft pick to be a hit is foolish. FAs are hit or miss.
I’ve warned everyone who will listen… this rebuild is going to take time. The Dolphins are on pace for 2-3 wins this season. They aren’t going from 2-3 wins to 10-11 wins in 2027. You can safely bet on 5-6 wins. Then MAYBE after 3 full drafts and 2 big offseasons in FA, they will have enough talent to be competitive. But they aren’t close right and the issue isn’t the man under center or his protection. But that’s what everyone wants to focus on.
THIS AND THAT
- What about that pesky 3rd quarter? The Dolphins only gained 6 yards and that’s turrible. But let’s discuss it. The Dolphins defense got a rare 3-and out. The offense went 1 yard run, incomplete pass that wouldn’t have counted because of a penalty, and a pass to Greg Dulcich that he wasn’t even looking for. The Pats get the ball. 7 rushing yards on the 1st 2 plays, then a 4 yards pass with 3 to gain on 3rd down. Can’t get off the field. Then an 8 yard run followed by a TD pass where the WR was, to know one’s surprise, wide slap open. The next drive: incomplete pass, 5 yard run that ended up going backwards thanks to a penalty on Gordon. Then an incomplete pass to Wright that maybe wasn’t a great pass, but who cares? If Wright catches it, he wasn’t getting the 20 yards needed to get a 1st down. The Pats got the ball back with 8:35 left in the quarter. 13 plays. 8 runs. A fumbled snap that became a 26-yard pass play. One TD. The defense actually got a 3rd down stop, but allowed a close play that was overturned for a 4th down conversion. A completed pass… shocking. The Dolphins got the ball back and ran their next offensive play with 54 seconds left in the quarter. Are we all gonna blame Willis for that quarter? Is he supposed to make Dulcich be ready to catch ball? Is he responsible for Gordon’s 15-yard penalty that made it 3rd and 20 instead of 3rd and 5? Let’s not sugar coat it… the offense wasn’t good. But the defense didn’t do their part.
- Willis’ interception was a mistake, and Locked On Dolphins brought up that his throwing motion was possibly affected by a defender. That’s neither here nor there. What I want to discuss is the throwing motion. Willis has a three-quarter slot delivery for his throws. It’s not going to change, nor should it. But it is something that we will have to accept as long as he is the QB. There are benefits to it and drawbacks. That INT was one of them.
- Ollie Gordon’s penalty was a killer, even though I will blame the defense for not getting a stop on the ensuing drive. It was a boneheaded move by the young man. But I like his fire and passion. He will need to control it, but that fire has been missing from this team for a while. Perhaps he needs to give some to the defense because they need as much fire as possible.
- I want to hit on a point made by NeenerWhacker in the comment section of my last post. He said “Ok Earl – let’s see if your Oline theory is correct. I bet we struggle to run the ball Sunday.” I did suggest in the post that New England’s run defense was good, and it may not be as favorable a matchup. But I want to elaborate on my overall point. A GREAT OL is a nice thing in the NFL, but it’s not 100% necessary nor should teams go out of their way to get a GREAT one. Teams can and will succeed with an average OL, Teams just can’t have a BAD OL. Teams need 5 good to decent starters and hope for 3 quality depth players. In general, one particular OL does not make or break an individual game, and one particular OL does not add much if any to the win column for a team. For years, the Dolphins have lacked having quality OL either in the starting group or in the depth. Kadyn Proctor is a becoming a very good LG and I think that’s where he stays long term. His presence was missed in this game. Would he have altered the outcome? No. Maybe the offense sustains an additional drive. But unless he plays on defense also, then I don’t know that it would have mattered. However, the point I have made and will continue to make is that Dolphins fans have become so obsessed with the OL that they want the elitest of elite OLs, thinking that is necessary for being successful. That is untrue. Originally, I had a longer thought all typed out with stats and numbers, but I realized I was getting away from my point. Which is this: the difference between a bad offensive lineman and overall OL and an average offensive lineman and overall OL is a striking difference. The difference between average and great is not nearly as noticeable. While none of the OL played well particularly well Sunday, Kingston showed he is more along the lines of below average depth. It’s probably why they made a claim for Christian Haynes. Miami is FINE along the OL with their starters, even if they are just average. Average is really all you need. They just can’t have BAD again. Depth is an issue, but that is across the board for ANY team. NO team has 2 or 3 depth players that are good enough to start. If they did… they would start. Somewhere. Kingston ain’t one, although he had his moments.
- Can they PLEASE find a decent kicker? Why is this so difficult? League average FG% is 83.8. Neither Patterson nor Gonzalez were/are close. The FA market is meh. The Dolphins need to draft a kicker. Mel Kiper’s rankings have Luke Drzewiecki (Minnesota), David Olano (Texas A&M), Lucas Carneiro (Ole Miss), and Nolan Hauser (Clemson) as the top kicker prospects. Normally, I don’t keep up with specialists for the draft, but perhaps the Dolphins need to use a late rounder on a prospect that can be reliable.
- I called it: “I dislike making predictions, but I think Chop has his breakout game for this season with at least 2 sacks.” Chop got 2 sacks and had 8 pressures. He is playing well enough to warrant the Dolphins picking up his 5th year option. He needs a serious running mate though. The best edge rusher for where Miami is expected to draft would be Colin Simmons. The Texas site has him listed at 6’3”, 246, so he’d be a smaller edge for Hafley’s defense. But he has the talent to be an All-Pro player. Most draft sites have him as a top 5 prospect. He will be in serious consideration for the Dolphins.
- Another defensive prospect for Miami at 3 is cornerback Leonard Moore. A prototype CB that can excel in man or zone. I’m sure Hafley will be enamored with Moore given his DB coach background. Both are on my short list for players I want the Dolphins to draft in R1. Either he or Simmons would boost a very weak defense.
- Chris Johnson… come on man!
I SAID WHAT I SAID
This was a bad loss, probably the worst of the season. In all the other games, the outcome was decided pretty much by halftime. If not, the QB issues were so glaring that you knew the game was not going to go Miami’s way. Miami had the lead at halftime and should have kept their foot on the gas, but New England found answers that Miami couldn’t counter. This defense will be tough to watch this season mainly due to the lack of talent. They just don’t have enough horses to consistently hold other teams down. Perhaps things will turn around. Not gonna be easy though.
