With each gruesome loss, the bleakness of their situation increases.
You can see it in the numbers. After Monday night’s 5-1 loss to the Cubs, the Phillies are 8-14. They have had a similar, or worse, record a number of times in their long and storied franchise history, and the trends do not portent good tidings.
Generally speaking, bad teams begin a season 8-14. The record usually reflects the talent level of the team. But this Phillies team was expected to reach the postseason once again in 2026. They began the season as one of the National League teams most likely to reach the World Series. They have a payroll approaching $300 million.
And yet, here they sit, keeping company with some of the worst squads in franchise history.
If the Phillies finish with a losing record, like in 25 of the 26 instances listed above, they will not reach the postseason. But prior to the three wild card era that began in 2022, most of the teams listed above knew their seasons were over before April ended. The incentive to play hard, pursue mid-season trades and push for a playoff berth would have been foolish prior to the wild card era, let alone a time when six teams in each league, not 2 or 4, reach the postseason.
Last year, the Cincinnati Reds earned the third wild card with an 83-79 record, while the Tigers took the final wild card with an 87-75 mark. In 2024, it took 89 wins for anyone to earn entry in the NL, while the 86-win Tigers and Royals got the final spots. In ‘23, the Marlins and Diamondbacks each made the playoffs with 84 wins, with Arizona advancing all the way to the World Series, and in ‘22, your very own Philadelphia Phillies snuck into the postseason and went on a breathtaking run after a dreadful April and sputtering September that netted 87 victories during the regular season.
Let’s say it will take 86 wins for the Phillies to reach the playoffs. In order to get there, they would need to go 78-70 the rest of the way. It is not at all unreasonable to think this team can play 8 games over .500 the rest of the way. To get to 90 wins, they need to finish with an 82-66 record. That’s 14 games over .500 over the season’s final five-plus months. Again, far from impossible.
It’s difficult to envision this team going on a run like that right now.
It’s entirely possible that, like the 2012 Phillies, this particular group has reached its end point. It’s possible that, like the 1979 Phillies, it’s simply more of a setback season in which nothing is going to go right. It’s also possible that, like ‘22, the Phillies will stumble to a 22-29 start, replace their manager, and go on another tear.
All of those options seem equally likely.
But as MLB.com noted late last year, other teams have started as slowly, if not slower, and reached the October tournament.
First 25 Games:
Division winners
7-18: 2024 Astros (finished 88-73)
9-16: 2015 Rangers (finished 88-74)
9-16: 2006 Twins (finished 96-66)
10-15: 2006 Padres (finished 88-74)
10-15: 2005 Yankees (finished 95-67)
Seven division winners have started 11-14Wild Card winners
8-17: 2001 Athletics (finished 102-60)
10-15: 2014 Pirates (finished 88-74)
10-15: 2009 Rockies (finished 92-70)
10-15: 2007 Rockies (finished 90-73)*
10 Wild Card winners have started 11-14
These types of finishes were almost impossible prior to the wild card era in 1995, when four teams in each league reached the postseason. Through 1993, only two teams from each league, division winners of the four divisions, went to the playoffs.
This isn’t to say fans shouldn’t be concerned. The Phillies are playing some awful baseball right now, and there are no signs of a breakthrough. But while their Fangraphs playoff odds have understandably fallen over the last week, especially their chances of winning the NL East (12.4%), they are still being given a 45.0% chance of making the playoffs. Those are the 6th-best odds of any team in the NL, which would, you guessed it, place them in the No. 3 wild card spot.
All that’s difficult to swallow when they’re sporting a -42 run differential that is by far the worst in baseball (Royals -34 are 2nd-worst). Everyone should be prepared for a very different summer than the ones we’ve experienced over the last few years. History is not kind to Phils teams that have started like this.
But this is a different era of baseball, when slow starts to not automatically sink a team’s chances. The Phillies can wait this out, get hot, and still reasonably believe their playoff chances are not sunk.
It’s just not likely.
