Go back a week, and you’ll see that the Yankees had been favored to win this series.
They had former Cy Young Gerrit Cole on the mound for game one and the should the unthinkable happen and New York drop game one, they’d have the for sure victory in game two behind probable 2026 Cy Young Cam Schlittler. Plus, they’d have the added benefit of a home away from home with a raucous pro-Yankee crowd at Tropicana Field.
Four days and two games later things look very different.
In case you need a recap: Over
the first two games of the ALDS, it’d be hard to fathom a team playing much worse (decent pitching notwithstanding) than the New York Yankees. They are having a historically awful time against the Rays pitching. Drew Rasmussen came just four outs shy of a no-hitter during game one and Freddy Peralta held the Bronx Bombers in check for the first three innings of his outing until Ben Rice ruined things. Ben Rice and Austin Wells have been the extent of the Yankees offense thus far with the entirety of the rest of the Yankees lineup collectively going 1-46.
For game two, Schlittler pitched well but couldn’t overcome a relentless Rays offense and an absolute abysmal atrocious defense behind him. Typical Rays chaos resulted in botched plays, errors, stolen bases, and well timed hits that allowed the Rays to tally five runs. The Yankees offense mustered two runs, both courtesy of Ben Rice solo homeruns. Cam Booser had the most difficult part of the night for the Rays, facing Cody Bellinger with the bases loaded and two away. After getting ahead 0-2, Bellinger lined a ball to center field that wouldn’t have been a homerun in 18 of the 30 MLB ballparks (including Yankee Stadium). Johnny DeLuca tracked it down, with little difficulty, for the final out.
Ian Seymour worked three innings, allowing just one run (Ben Rice’s 2nd homerun). Then Bryan Baker worked another perfect inning, recording his second save. With a Rays victory on Wednesday, if Baker records the save he’ll become just the 4th pitcher in MLB history to record a save in a League Division Series sweep.
And about tonight? Well, the Yankees won’t make things easy on the Rays as the series heads to New York.
Tampa Bay will face one of the best left-handed starting pitchers in baseball as Max Fried is scheduled to take the mound. There was some talk of Fried missing the start so he could be with his pregnant girlfriend, who is expected to deliver their baby any day now. However, Fried confirmed with reporters on Tuesday that he would be starting Game Three of the ALDS against Tampa Bay.
Fried signed a record breaking contract with the Yankees prior to the 2025 season and proceeded to put up possibly the best year of his career. This past season, Fried endured two seperate stints on the Injured List but when healthy, he was equally if not better than his 2025 campaign.
Over 20 starts, Fried compiled a 2.80 ERA | 2.65 FIP with a 24.0 K% & 7.6 BB% spread over 112.2 IP. Expect the Rays to load their starting lineup with right-handed bats as Fried is nearly unhittable against lefties. Those who share the same side of the plate as Fried hit just .174/.245/.228 this season over 103 PA while righties hit .209/.270/.288. Another testament to how great of a pitcher Fried is that he is able to keep the ball in the park despite playing in a stadium that is known for being a homerun haven. That being said, Fried’s numbers in New York are much worse than when on the road. All four homeruns that Fried has surrendered this season came at home and he has a 3.42 ERA in the Bronx compared to 2.34 away (and yes, that is FOUR HOME RUNS ALL SEASON).
Going to the mound for the Rays is one of the best free agent signings in franchise history, veteran hurler Nick Martinez.
Martinez has pitched all around the league and even in Japan for a spell. Most recently, Martinez was with the Cincinnati Reds and provided them with two excellent years. Despite his success, the Rays were able to snag Martinez as a free agent on a one year, $13M deal (there is a mutual option for 2027 but given Martinez’s 2026 campaign, he’ll get PAID).
During this past season with Tampa Bay, Martinez showcased himself as an excellent starting pitcher and possibly even better teammate helping to foster an amazing environment within the Rays clubhouse. He’s not a strikeout pitcher but manages to induce plenty of weak contact, which is a good approach when he has one of the game’s top defenses behind. Martinez helped his own cause by having some of the best command in baseball, evidenced by a 3.6 BB% which was easily the lowest in baseball among qualifying pitchers (2nd was Drew Rasmussen and Chris Sale with 4.8%). Among pitchers with at least 40 IP (there were 389 of them), Martinez’s 3.6 BB% was still the lowest while fellow Rays Kevin Kelly and Cam Booser slide just behind him at 3.9%.
The Yankees offense has been held in check by the Rays pitching staff but regression may be imminent. Not many baseball offenses will sustain a 1-46 performance and perhaps the squad will be riveted by return home to what is sure to be an incredible atmosphere. Then again, not many teams have a stable of arms like the Rays and thus far, they’ve been able to limit the Yankees to just 2 runs over two games while keeping most of their bullpen rested.
Game three begins tonight at 8pm on TBS
