Howdy y’all. I’m a little behind this week, so I didn’t get to watch and write all the stuff I wanted to for here or AOR. I’m trying to develop a few regular posts for this site each week to keep all y’all as engaged as possible. You know, given what this season is and all. Y’all saw the Tuesday Thoughts post, and I’m gonna make that one a regular. If y’all have any ideas for additional posts, let me know.
Anyway… I figured I would start a post with 3 things to watch for in each game that promote
optimism and 3 things that should make us worried. Aside from the usual stuff. So welcome to The Earl’s Three For Three!
Three Reasons for Hope
1. Experience Has Been Gained
Last week, the Dolphins’ rookies played 27.2% of the possible snaps. That was league-leading and nearly 10% more than the next closest team (Browns at 16.7%). Over a quarter of the snaps were played by someone who had never taken an NFL snap. Chris Johnson, Jacob Rodriguez, and Kadyn Proctor played every snap. Caleb Douglas, Michael Taaffe, and Chris Bell played 91%, 75%, and 52%, respectively. Not all of this was pretty. Johnson was picked on early and often, and Taaffe missed a few assignments. But this week, they know what it’s like. They know the feeling of stepping onto an NFL field for the first time. Once upon a time, I had the opportunity to interview Cameron Wake over the phone for The Phinsider. I asked him about his first experience in the NFL, and he talked about that feeling when you first step out there and think, “I made it.” I imagine it was overwhelming for these young players, even ones like Proctor who played for one of the biggest college programs out there. But not only is the first-time feeling gone, but they also have a good idea of what the play is like at the NFL level. I recall a comment from Hall of Fame LB Patrick Willis about getting hit by Edgerrin James in his first game and realizing what “grown man” strength was and how the NFL is on a different level. That’s gone now. These rookies have seen the real game now. They have felt the real game now. They still don’t know enough yet, but they won’t be as surprised now. That’ll lead to smarter and quicker decisions, better communication, and higher confidence.
2. There Is Hope Up Front
The Rams are a true Super Bowl contender, and the 49ers shut them down. That should be scary, right? Not necessarily. Despite the outcome, the Rams still put up 290 yards of offense, with 122coming on the ground. The 49ers allowed the Rams a 4.2 YPC average. There was also not a single sack in this game. The 49ers generated 8 pressures on 29 dropbacks, but recorded no sacks. Miami’s offensive line isn’t as accomplished as LA’s, but they should have extra motivation this week after how they performed against Vegas. The 49ers can’t just pin their ears back and rush the passer either. Matthew Stafford is great at maneuvering the pocket, but he does not have the ability to threaten defenses on the ground like Malik Willis. They may play more “contain” rather than straight rush. All it takes is for him or Achane to hit a big play to force the defense to play honest. This is a chance for the offensive line to make a statement against a front that is not quite as formidable.
3. Caleb Douglas Is A Weapon
The most important thing Douglas has brought to the Dolphins is his ability to get open. Much has been made about his size and speed since the draft. His stat line stood out and set franchise records. But what really stood out in week one was his ability to create separation. Douglas generated 5.3 yards of separation at the catch, despite having less cushion than other receivers. The Raiders tried to press him, and he still won. Of course, the Raiders secondary isn’t exactly loaded with premier talent. But for a rookie in his first game, and on the road, he stood out in a big way. He’ll have a much tougher test this week. The 49ers’ defensive back group, led by emerging star Renardo Green, is more talented than Las Vegas’s. Now that word is out on Douglas, he will get far more attention. But nothing suggests Douglas will fail to succeed this week. He is quickly becoming a go-to weapon and potentially a star.
Three Areas of Concern
1. The 49ers Are Also Strong Up Front
The Rams gained 122 yards on the ground, which is nice. But the 49ers gained 174 yards on the ground. And did so with only 1 more attempt than the Rams. They leaned heavily on both CMC and rookie Kaelon Black, with CMC going 10-68 and Black going 14-65. Deebo Samuel got in on the act with a 12-yard carry. The Niners did not record a single negative run play. This is a frightening idea, as the Dolphins were just pantsed by Ashton Jeanty and the Raiders, who, while talented, only had a 3.7 YPC average last season and an offensive line as maligned as the Dolphins’. The Dolphins will need to tighten up SIGNIFICANTLY if they want to have any hope of containing the 49ers rushing attack. The Niners’ passing game wasn’t necessarily special. Purdy went 25-for-34 for 205 yards. That’s a YPA of 6.1, which is meh. But he also threw 3 TDs. He was also not under any pressure whatsoever, despite the Rams having added the reigning defensive player of the year in Myles Garrett. Garrett is now on IR, but he played 40 snaps and generated 1 pressure. As a team, the Rams generated three total pressures. Miami generated 4 pressures last week. Granted, the Dolphins didn’t earn the right to rush the passer, and Cousins got the ball out quickly. Purdy also had time to throw quickly. Regardless, the Dolphins failed the test against a Raider front and now face a much better offensive line.
2. Kyle Shanahan Is A Madman
If you read my most recent article at Aqua And Orange Review, I highlighted some offensive personnel and defensive package tendencies from the first week of action. The Niners defense was mostly base 4-3 until they got a big enough lead to force LA to throw more. Miami was heavily 11-personnel, which may have been due to their situation. The flip side to this is that Kyle Shanahan does not stick to any one personnel grouping exclusively. I’ll let you read the AOR article for that, but his ability to use a variety of groupings for any play call will keep Miami’s young and inexperienced defense on their heels. Jeff Hafley has his tendencies too, but whether he can go toe-to-toe with Shanahan is a big question, especially with this group. They have worked together, so they know each other well. It may come down to the talent more than the Xs & Os. I think Hafley will have some answers, but this defense hasn’t seen the funkShanahan is about to throw at them.
3. Miami’s Linebackers Are Good; San Francisco’s Linebackers Are Better
I thought about discussing the plethora of playmakers at the 49ers’ disposal and how it will be a “pick your poison” situation for the defense. I thought about discussing some of Brock Purdy’s playmaking skills. But those are obvious choices that everyone discusses. I want to look at another position group: the linebackers. Jordyn Brooks is an All-Pro, and Jacob Rodriguez looked good in his first action for the Dolphins. But the 49ers have the best LB in the game with Fred Warner and a solid running mate in Dre Greenlaw. They will close the middle of the field for the Dolphins. They will allow the 49ers to call coverages that some teams could not call due to LB limitations. This will force the Dolphins to call plays that avoid where Warner and Greenlaw are camping out. Even if they are out of position or away from the play, they have the range to get in on the action. This also affects the run game and the intermediate passing game. Slowik will have to get creative to neutralize those players. Miami hopes to have a linebacking duo that becomes one of the best in the league. This week, they face the prototype.
I said what I said
Three areas of hope. Three areas of concern. What more can you ask for? I’m not going to sugar coat the situation: the Dolphins are outgunned and outclassed in every aspect of this contest. The 49ers have weapons upon weapons on both sides of the ball. The Dolphins… don’t. Maybe in a couple of years, this youth movement will pay dividends, and a rebuilding team looks at Miami as outclassing them. But I can’t see much hope for a win here. Maybe everything clicks at the same time, but it will probably be ugly. Still, if Miami can get some contributions from the young’uns and show some growth from week one, that’s a win for this team.
