The Astros missed the playoffs last year for the first time since 2016, but still finished with 87 wins. This year, the bottom may be dropping out, as they are tied for the eighth-worst record in baseball and are headed to their first losing season since 2014. Their dynasty run that included nine playoff appearances, four pennants, and two titles, appears to be coming to an end.
Houston Astros (31-39) vs. Kansas City Royals (28-41) at Kauffman Stadium, Kansas City, MO
Astros: 4.50 runs scored/game
(13th in MLB), 5.04 runs allowed/game (24th)
Royals: 3.90 runs scored/game (29th), 4.62 runs allowed/game (20th)
Despite playing in Minute Maid Park, the Astros have hit better away from home this year, and only five teams in baseball have hit more road homers. Jose Altuve is one hitter who has struggled on the road, hitting .189/.252/.263 away from Houston. Yordan Alvarez leads all qualified hitters in slugging percentage (.636) and wRC+ (189), and is second in on-base percentage (.430) and home runs (22). He is hitting lefties equally as well as righties. Jeremy Peña is hitting .328/.418/.534 with three home runs over his last 17 games.
Isaac Paredes has a 53.8 percent pull rate, seventh-highest in baseball. He’s a lifetime .196/.328/.373 hitter in 14 games at Kauffman Stadium. The Astros have the worst success rate on stolen bases, getting caught 33 percent of the time. Altuve and Paredes rank as poor defenders by Outs Above Average, but much of the rest of the team rates well.
Tatsuya Imai struggled in his first few starts in the big leagues after coming over from Japan, but he allowed just four runs in 17 innings over his last three starts. He has a 3.24 ERA in four road starts. He throws his slider 44.7 percent of the time, helping him induce a 51 percent groundball rate.
The Astros acquired Mike Burrows in the offseason in a trade with the Pirates, but he has struggled. He leads the majors in losses (8), home runs allowed (17), and he has the highest ERA among qualified starters at 5.77. He has given up four or more runs in 7 of his 13 starts. Lefties are hitting .321/.397/.575 against him. Noah Cameron has allowed just six earned runs in 30 innings over his last five starts for 1.80 ERA, but the Royals have won only one of those games.
Spencer Arrighetti is tied for third in the American League with seven wins, with five Quality Starts. Opponents are hitting just .185/.322/.260 against him. He throws his curveball one-third of the time, and the pitch has a 42 percent whiff rate. Stephen Kolek has allowed just seven earned runs in 32.1 innings over his last five starts.
The Astros have a 4.82 ERA from their bullpen, seventh-worst in baseball, with the third-highest walk rate. And yet, they have the fewest blown saves in baseball with just three. Josh Hader missed the first two months with shoulder and bicep injuries, but earned a save in his first game back. He has struck out 7 of the 13 batters he has faced so far, without allowing a hit. Bryan King, Bryan Abreu, and Enyel de los Santos had each earned saves prior to Hader’s return. Abreu has the highest walk rate among relievers. Steven Okert has a 60 percent flyball rate, third-highest in baseball.
The Astros had an awful month of April, but have played .500 ball since then. They split their season series with the Royals last year, with Kansas City winning the series at Kauffman. This is the fifth consecutive series for the Royals against a team that currently has a .500 record or worse. They’ve gone 6-7 over that stretch so far, and will need to do much better if they any hopes for climbing back into contention.
