Wow, that was fun, right? Football is back, and the Packers look great, but are they really great, or did they just look great? I have no idea because Week 1 is a throne of lies, as the saying goes, but hey, let’s try to put some rigor to this anyway.
For your old-timey power rankings, there are plenty of options to choose from around the old internet, or you can just ask ChatGPT, which will tell you that Denver’s passing game was bad because of ebonix, probably. Everyone has a Power Ranking. People
LOVE Power Rankings! But over here in analytical nerd land, we’re trying something a little different. This is the futuristic cyber version of power rankings, and we’re using our best cyber technology to generate cyberly objective power rankings. Since power rankings are all about arguing about why the rankings are wrong, I’ve decided it’s disappointing to be subjectively wrong like everyone else. If we’re going to be wrong, we’re going to be objectively wrong. And so, in the spirit of being objectively wrong we have created C.A.L.C.U.L.A.T.O.R., the Comprehensive Analysis of League Competition Using Latest Analytics To Organize Rankings.
What goes into Calculator? Basically, every advanced stat I have available, in addition to data based on net point differential, and the current Super Bowl odds from our friends at FanDuel. I run some formulas to smooth everything out, create a unified scale, and here we go! You can see the preseason rankings (and last year’s rankings) here, and current rankings here. As a reminder, it’s only week one and our information is pretty limited. Even if you aggregate a bunch of small sample size data, it’s still small sample size data! However, the benefit of Calculator is that it knows enough to not declare the Colts the best team in football.
The Colts are just the fifth best team in football, while the Giants are bringing up the rear thanks to Russell Wilson, who is turbo-cooked. But who’s in first? Who could it be? Well let’s jump in.
(Please note, calculations were complete prior to Thursday’s games. Adjust Washington down or Green Bay up as much as you feel is warranted.)
1. Green Bay Packers: CALCULATOR Score: 114.61, Change from preseason ranking: 28.78 – The Packers destroyed the NFC’s best team from a year ago (and then the NFC’s third-ish best team!), and while some of the other top teams had some warts, the Packers were strong in all phases, by all metrics. They finished third in DVOA, fourth in EPA per Play, third in PFF grade, and shot up to +850 to win it all. Strictly speaking, Indy may have had the best performance this week, but Vegas trusts the Packers to actually be good. This also set up a fascinating Thursday night matchup against a team we’ll be discussing momentarily, but for now, let’s just bask in the glow of our outstanding C.A.L.C.U.L.A.T.O.R ranking.
Baltimore Ravens: 106.69, -4.15 – Why are the Ravens here despite their epic fourth quarter collapse against the Bills in their early game of the year contender? FTN, the outfit that runs DVOA, also has a statistic called “Post Game Win Expectancy” that tracks how often each team should win a game based on underlying statistics. The Bills PGWE was only 5%, as they were outgained by two yards per play, and had the worst defensive performance of the week. Baltimore’s defense wasn’t great, but they were much better than Buffalo’s, and it’s not their fault that Derrick Henry fumbled. Baltimore seems to have a knack for blowing up the stat sheet while blowing the game, but they’re still an incredibly talented team, and still +700 to win it all, behind only Buffalo.
3. Washington Commanders: 103.70, 26.38 – The next opponents for the Packers finished first in DVOA and third in EPA, but they’re still +2000 to win it all which pushes them down just a bit. It’s also too early for any metric to adjust for quality of opponent, but, well, it was the Giants, and my goodness, were the Giants bad. Russell Wilson has no business playing ahead of anyone at this point. Jayden Daniels was held in check as a passer, but the Giants never seriously threatened in this game, and they bullied their way to 212 rushing yards on 32 carries. Thursday should be a blast.
4. Philadelphia Eagles: 100.88, -2.91 – The Eagles finish Week 1 a respectable fourth, and are obviously a major contender in the NFC as the defending Super Bowl champs, but there were also a few red flags in their close victory over the Cowboys to open the season. They’re still +700 to win it all (second), and boast a robust DVOA, but they’re only 13th in EPA per Play, and it wasn’t exactly the greatest defensive performance as Dak was never sacked or picked. The Eagles will be fine, (and anything over 100 in CALCULATOR puts you firmly in the elite) and they’re more of a “fundamentally sound powerhouse” than anything, but it was an interesting start to say the least.
5. Indianapolis Colts: 98.90, 42.98 – If any result is likely to be “small sample noise” it’s this one, but in the Colts’ defense, they didn’t just beat a (probably awful) Miami team, they destroyed them, and that’s what good teams are supposed to do to bad teams. And while the Colts were bad last year, a lot of that poor play was based on Anthony Richardson just not being an NFL quarterback. The Colts were actually 14th in defensive EPA in 2024 and well above average against the run, so there was a foundation to build on, and the Colts defense harassed Tua into one of his worst games as a pro. On offense, do I trust Danny Dimes to resurrect his career here? I do not, but Jones is at least an NFL-level player, while Richardson, so far, is not, and he’s capable of occasionally playing a game like this. Combined with a strong, multifaceted rushing attack and…look, I don’t think the Colts will be even a top ten team this year, but they play in a division with the Jags, Titans, and Texans, and stranger things have happened.
6. Jacksonville Jaguars: 84.91, 29.89 – I traditionally never watch the Jaguars and I’m not going to start just because they lit up the Panthers, largely based on Travis Etienne going nuts. Those expecting a Trevor Lawrence breakout under the new leadership of Liam Coen, well, get Serious Man, he went 19/31 for 178 yards and got picked once while Brian Thomas is going to take one look at the box score and Burn After Reading, as he caught just 1 of 7 targets for 11 yards. On the plus side, the defense showed up as linebacker Ventrell Miller’s deep drops prevented Crossing routes, leaving the Panthers with Far to Go on third down. The defense really showed True Grit, picking Young twice, sacking him once, and showing Hunter Renfroe that this is no Game for Old Men. All of that said, watching the Jags remains an act of Intolerable Cruelty.
7. Denver Broncos: 84.73, 11.61 – Denver posted very good numbers in DVOA and EPA, but our friends at PFF had them just 18th overall, and while their Super Bowl odds aren’t terrible, they’re also basically average. And while Tennessee can’t be too happy with Cam Ward’s underwhelming first start, at least it was against a very good Bronco defense. What’s Bo Nix’s excuse for his 176-yard, 2-pick performance? The Broncos are talented, they appear to have a good defense but let me put it this way. Cam Ward was at least trying to push the ball and averaged 10.8 intended air yards for the Titans. Bo Nix was struggling to compete passes at 6.0 intended air yards per throw. If you’re going to be a game manager for a good defense, you at least have to complete your simple shirt throws, and NOT turn the ball over. Denver finished first in most defensive metrics this week. They don’t need THAT much from the offense.
8. Los Angeles Rams: 81.80, 9.13 – The number one team in football by PFF grade, Matthew Stafford was an efficient 21/29 for 245 yards, and none of the three sacks he took knocked him or his bad back from the game. Puka was great despite being concussed, and a ferocious Rams defense made life miserable for CJ Stroud. The Rams fly under the radar a bit in the NFC, but as long as Matthew Stafford can stand up, they’re a major threat, with playmakers across all phases of the game.
9. Buffalo Bills: 78.44, -24.82 – What exactly are the preseason favorite (and indeed, Super Bowl favorite at +650) Bills doing WAY down here at 9th? The Bills weren’t just bad on defense against the Ravens, they finished last in pass defense EPA, functionally last in run defense EPA (the Colts were worse, but the Dolphins only ran the ball 12 times against them), and last in defensive DVOA. While they were pretty great on offense, their rushing attack was only OK, and they wound up looking a lot like the Packers, with a strong passing game covering for a substandard ground game. Buffalo is good, I don’t doubt that, but they should be VERY concerned about their defense.
10. Los Angeles Chargers: 77.25, 7.32 – I think the Chargers are a good bet to shoot up the charts as the season moves along. For starters, their win over the Chiefs isn’t getting the analytics credit it (probably) deserves because it’s hard to adjust for quality of opponent this early. More importantly, they brought in Keenan Allen (who was still good last year on a horrible Bears offense) to provide those sweet, sweet veteran presents, take some pressure off Quentin Johnston (who looked much more refined in game one, and may be one to watch for the prototypical third year breakout), and allow Ladd McConkey to work in the slot full time. Add in Omarion Hampton at running back, and all of a sudden Justin Herbert’s cup runneth over. They were merely average in EPA, but 8th in PFF score, and up to +2000 to win it all.
11. San Francisco 49ers: 76.35, -1.99 – It’s always a little weird when DVOA and EPA disagree drastically, and that’s exactly what we have here. The 49ers somehow finished second in overall EPA per Play this week, and as someone who watched that game, I have literally no idea how that’s possible. I suppose the best explanation is that they did manage to hit several long plays on offense, and Jake Moody (just cut) did miss a few kicks that would have made the score look more respectable. And their defense was quite good, though it’s not like they were facing some juggernaut. By DVOA though, they were just 15th, and while a last place special teams’ performance is dragging them down, they were only the 14th best offense and 9th best defense. It may not matter as the team is now extremely banged up with George Kittle hitting IR, and Brock Purdy nursing head, shoulder, knees and toe injuries.
12. Las Vegas Raiders: 71.05, 19.48 – Here’s a fun one! I like Geno Smith. I don’t think he’s a great quarterback, but he can air it out and he knows what he’s doing. The Geno Smith Seahawks were super fun, and so good they got Shane Waldron hired by the Bears. The Raiders had a bunch of issues last year, but the biggest may have been Antonio Pierce and Luke Getsy. Pete Carroll may be an old man at this point, but he’s a good coach, his teams tend to overperform, and he is intimately familiar with Geno’s game. Beating the Pats may not seem like much, but this was a highly entertaining game to watch and was only marred by a knee injury to Brock Bowers which is hopefully not too severe. The Raiders’ offensive line is still a work in progress and Ashton Jeanty struggled mightily as a result, but he also put some of the best two-yard runs of all time on tape. And the Raider defense will likely benefit from having Pete in charge. If you need a random game to watch on Sunday, they Raiders aren’t a bad way to go. They were 7th in EPA, and DVOA. See San Francisco! That’s how it’s supposed to work!
13. Kansas City Chiefs: 68.76, -29.59 – Oh, hey, the Chiefs lost a one-score game. Would you look at that. Regression to the mean comes for us all eventually, even Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid. The Chiefs are only this high because of their +1000 Super Bowl odds. Every other statistic hated them in this game.
14. Minnesota Vikings: 68.41, -4.67 – JJ McCarthy was absolutely awful for the first 75% of this game before snapping to life in the fourth quarter with three touchdowns (2 passing, 1 rushing) to complete the comeback against the Bears. Early on the game looked far too fast for McCarthy as he was taking forever to get through his reads and threw one of the worst pick-sixes you will ever see as a result, but he got it together late to salvage the day and leave the question of whether he’s actually good or not for another day. One of the weirdest quirks about the Vikings, and early season DVOA is that they finished 13th overall with 18.2, but the 14th ranked team (Tampa) had a 0 DVOA. That’s a big drop-off! The Bears did a lot of the heavy lifting in this one and so we didn’t really learn that much, but it’s entirely possible that the Vikings get off to a somewhat hot start. They have JJ’s draftmate Michael Penix and the Falcons next, followed by the Bengals (who appear to be good), Steelers, and Browns before their bye week.
15. New York Jets: 66.58, 16.56. The Jets probably should have won their game against the Aaron and the Steelers They gained 123 more yards than Pittsburgh, Justin Fields only took a single sack, and the Jets absolutely gashed the Steelers on the ground. So, what happened?
A. On the Jets’ first touchdown of the game, a penalty moved up the PAT and they decided to go for two but failed. They lost by two.
B. In a week where kickers were generally terrible, Chris Boswell hit from 56 and 60.
C. Xavier Gipson fumbled a kickoff return at the start of the fourth quarter, and Rodgers punched it in two plays later,
D. On their ensuing drive the Jets scored a touchdown to go up one, and again, failed on a two point try.
E. On their final drive on fourth and three, Garrett Wilson dropped the ball (on a hard hit from Jalen Ramsey).
Aaron played like his old self and the Steelers did what they needed to do, but the Jets finished higher in essentially every underlying major statistic. Fun use of Justin Fields too.
16. Cincinnati Bengals: 66.08, -8.26 – Cincinnati was NOT good in this game, especially on offense. Joe Burrow completed one pass in the entire fourth quarter while being sacked three times. Fortunately for Cinci, Joe Flacco is prone to throwing picks, and he did, but the anemic offense was concerning (even if Cleveland’s defense is worth paying attention to. Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins destroyed fantasy owners everywhere, and it will be interesting to see how they do against the pesky Jags next week.
17. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 65.73, -7.44 – Tampa had a DVOA of exactly 0 in Week One, which is pretty crazy, but also checks out as their EPA per Play was .09, or as close to 0 as we tend to get. And it checks out because the Bucs looked just OK, needing a missed Younghoe Koo 44-yard field goal to escape with a victory. On the plus side, rookie wide receiver Emeka Egbuka is goooooooooood.
18. Arizona Cardinals: 65.04, -1.40 – Speaking of unimpressive wins, the Cardinals barely survived the cap-strangled, Spencer Rattler-led New Orleans Saints 20-13. The Saints had three shots at the end zone from the Arizona 18 to end the game, but Rattler was unable to connect with Juwan Johnson or Chris Olave to tie things up, but this game was much closer than it had any right to be. Most concerning for the Cards, the Saints managed to sack Kyler Murray five times, and hit him a bunch more, which is not a great harbinger for long term success. Then again, maybe it wasn’t as bad as it looked. In terms of EPA, the Cardinals were pretty good, finishing eight, but special teams play destroyed their DVOA, landing them 17th.
19. Pittsburgh Steelers: 55.72, -6.44 – There’s no disagreement between DVOA and EPA for the Steelers, who stole a game from the Jets despite a -8.5 DVOA and a -0.05 EPA per Play. That said, I have to give credit where credit is due, as Aaron Rodgers looked good, and showed some zip on his fastball that we haven’t seen in several years. Rodgers isn’t as mobile as he once was, but if he can sling it, the Steelers have a fighting chance, and Rodgers may benefit from playing in a situation where he’s just the quarterback, and not the coach and GM.
20. Dallas Cowboys: 55.50, 1.60 – With Micah Parsons the Cowboys could always rely on a solid defensive effort to bolster their good, if never quite great offense. Without him, while the offense was posting a nice effort against a tough opponent that ranked sixth in DVOA, the defense finished 28th. Whoops.
21. Chicago Bears: 55.44, -6.26 – The Bears actually finished with a slightly positive EPA per play, but everything else was a disaster with PFF as the harshest critic at 24th. While JJ McCarthy rallied in the fourth quarter to bring the Vikings a close victory, Caleb turtled and continues to look like he doesn’t really know what to do out there. At least the Chicago turf was in midseason form.
22. Cleveland Browns: 52.08, 6.54 – I am genuinely surprised to see the Browns above the Bears. They are, in actuality, a good defensive team and finished as a top 10 unit across the board, but their special teams were poor, and while Vegas has little faith in the Bears (+5000) they have whatever the opposite of faith is in the Browns (+40000). The Browns face the Packers in Week 3, and while they’re a multi-quarterback mess of a team, you do need to be careful with them. They sacked Joe Burrow three times, and they were a missed PAT away from a tie score. They are the quintessential Cleveland team that isn’t as good as the sum of their parts.
23. Atlanta Falcons: 50.71, -12.26 – A thrilling Michael Penix-led comeback fell just short, and it’s probably for the best because the Falcons were pretty bad in this game. In particular, Drake London caught just 8 of 15 targets for 55 yards, which completely tanked their passing game efficiency. It’s never good when your running back is your leading receiver, even if Bijan did go off for 100 yards and a touchdown, as you cannot count on 50-yards of YAC every game. The Falcons are right about 23rd in all major metrics, so this is dead on.
24. Houston Texans: 49.25, -20.40 – I was hopeful that a new offensive coordinator might reinvigorate CJ Stroud and the Texans offense, but that emphatically did not happen. We should give some credit to the Rams, who appear to have a very good defense, but it’s always alarming when a team fails to score a touchdown, especially when all three of the field goals from Ka’imi Fairbairn in this game came from 45 yards or further. Woof.
25. New Orleans Saints: 48.91, 2.38 – The Saints were frisky, I’ll give them that, and most advanced stats (they finished 18th in DVOA, and 16th in PFF grade) would have them much higher, but here, Super Bowl odds, at +40000, are the killer. They may have a defense, and they were a few unlucky bounces away from forcing overtime.
26. Seattle Seahawks: 44.55, -16.74 – You can take the Sam Darnold out of Minnesota, and you can also take the Minnesota out of Same Darnold, who once again looks like “Sam Darnold” without the elite scheming of Kevin O’Connell and elite receiving of Justin Jefferson and crew. At least Jaxon Smith-Njigba (9 catches, 124 yards) did something, unfortunately he also put the ball on the ground twice. The Seahawks had the second worst EPA of the week, but PFF loved them, and had them 13th, which is a consistent trend from 2024.
27. Detroit Lions: 40.21, -54.16 – You may be shocked to see the Lions this low, especially given the Packers appear to be quite good. And the Lions are still a robust +1900 to win it all, which is keeping them from being even lower. The fact is the Lions were HORRIBLE in game one and ranked 30th in DVOA and 29th in EPA per Play. They were dominated, and there’s not really an underlying positive upside to this game, other than quality of opponent. I wrote and podcasted before the season that Detroit may take a bigger step back than people realize because of the major shocks they took, losing Ben Johnson, Aaron Glenn, Frank Ragnow, Kevin Zeitler, Carlton Davis. It’s a lot. The Lions will probably be fine, but they should also be on fraud watch.
28. New England Patriots: 39.08, -11.02 – Speaking of fraud watch…is Drake Maye gonna be OK? I know the Pats need a massive talent infusion, but he takes a LOT of sacks (the Raiders hot to him four times) and hits, and this can’t be good for his development. New England had a better DVOA than the Lions (LOL), and they’re somehow +8000 to win it all, which I would short if I could.
29. Tennessee Titans: 31.25, -13.81 – The Titans have no talent, and it was Cam Ward’s first game against an elite Denver defense, but man was he bad. No touchdowns, four Joe Slye field goals, and that’s it. Ward was sacked six times, and the single worst thing for a quarterback’s development is taking a ton of sacks, so this is worth monitoring. For everyone in survivor pools, the Titans should be on your radar all year.
30. Carolina Panthers: 31.09, -11.04 – The two worst receiver performances of Week 1 both come from this game as Hunter Renfroe caught two of six targets for 11 yards while Xavier Legette caught three of seven for 10 yards. Combined, that’s five of thirteen targets for 21 yards, or 1.61 yards per target. The Jaguars are a hot pick to improve drastically this season, and maybe they will, but when you play against the Panthers it’s hard to tell. Tet McMillan looks good, at least.
31. Miami Dolphins: 18.83, -39.49 – It’s one thing to lose to the possibly upstart Jaguars or the Bengals or the Rams, or even the Vikings. It’s quite another to get absolutely boat-raced by the Daniel Jones-led Colts, and believe it or not, this game wasn’t as close as you think. The Dolphins scored their loan touchdown and two-point conversion with 6:29 remaining in the game on 4th and 11, and at that point the Colts were up 30. They had the second lowest DVOA of the week, and by far the lowest EPA. By far. The Seahawks were second worst with -.303, which is amazing, but Miami landed at an unbelievable -.497, meaning that every play they ran, or had run against them, resulted in the equivalent of negative half a point. Miami is mostly not last because of Super Bowl odds, which, LOL.
32. New York Giants: 16.48, -31.25 – Russell Wilson probably needs to call it a career. Wilson was once a fantastic quarterback, leading the offensive side of the Legion of Boom Seahawks, but he’s been awful for several seasons now with his accuracy having deserted him completely. He’ll occasionally make an insane play where he manages to buy time for a big throw, but for the most part he’s a mechanical mess who has become painfully slow at getting through his reads. The Giants’ defense wasn’t great, but probably deserved better in holding a good Washington offense to 21 points. New York was dead last in DVOA by a country mile, and Wilson’s performance was a huge part of it.
