My philosophy as a fanalyst writer is to write things that I want to read. Right now, I want to read an article that tells me if things are going to get better for the Guardians as they lose a bunch of gut-wrenching games in the post-All-Star break era.
I will leave aside the pitching for now. I think we can generally still trust the Guardians will iron out their current bullpen trouble and manage to have a good starting rotation. The depth is a bit thin, but I’m optimistic about Justin Campbell,
Braylon Doughty, post TJ-Kahl Stephen and Franklin Gomez, and Harrison Bodendorf. Gotta hope Liam Peterson and them boys from the current draft class hit the ground running to be ready for when Gavin Williams is traded. It’s the hitting that’s the issue and I need to know if this much ballyhooed “next wave” of hitters are gonna help or not.
Player Comp 1: Ralphy Velazquez, 21 years old, Reaching Triple-A, 94 wRC+, 22.4/9.4 K/BB%, 33.7% chase rate, 15.6% whiff rate at Columbus. 89.6 mph average exit velo, 37% hard-hit rate.
Kyle Manzardo, 22 years old, first year of Triple-A, 96 wRC+, 19.3/13.3 K/BB%, 23.3% chase rate, 8.1% chase rate. 90.6 mph average exit velo, 48% hard-hit hit rate.
Analysis: As our friend and CtC writer Matt Seese pointed out… shoulder and back problems seem to have really messed up our boy Kyle Manzardo. Ralphy’s numbers are good and I suspect they will look a good deal better by the end of the season but Manzardo was still a better hitting prospect when the Guardians acquired him. Ralphy has four things going for him over 2023 Kyle: 1. Younger when reaching Triple-A, 2. No shoulder or back injuries so far, 3. Plays a good first base and may be able to play left field, 4. Has mostly even splits so doesn’t need platooned. But, the jury is still very much out here because of Ralphy’s whiff and chase issues.
Player Comp 2: Angel Genao, 22 years old, first year of Triple-A, 123 wRC+, 16.1/14.4% K/BB%, 26.5 chase rate, 7.2% whiff rate. 89.5 mph average exit velo, 45% hard-hit rate.
Brayan Rocchio, 21-22 years old, first year of Triple-A, 123 wRC+, 12.6/10.4 K/BB%, 86.7 average exit velo, 31.6% hard-hit rate.
Analysis: Hey, Genao is a clearly better hitting prospect than Rocchio was… and Rocchio is a solid major league player. Good news! Genao also has pretty even splits as a switch-hitter (Rocchio was always significantly worse vs. LHP). I am not sure where they should play him, but Genao should be promoted fairly soon.
Player Comp 3: Cooper Ingle, 24 years old at Triple-A, 168 wRC+, 21/17 K/BB%, 89.8, 44%, 19.7% chase rate, 6.7% swinging stike rate, 78.5% contact rate.
Bo Naylor, 23 years old at Triple-A, 124 wRC+, 19.3/18.1 K/BB%, 90.8 mph average exit velo, 45% hhr, 23% chase rate, 8.9% swinging strike rate, 77.8% contact rate
Analysis: These numbers are very similar in a lot of ways. Why didn’t Bo pan out as a hitter? We really don’t know yet. Will they succeed with Ingle where they failed with Bo? We can only hope. The big issue is trying to figure out where to play Ingle, whether left field, catcher or some kind of DH-combo? In some ways, Ingle’s closer comp may be CJ Kayfus… which is why he is certainly my preference of this bunch to be included in potential trade talks.
Player Comp 4: Juneiker Caceres, 18 years old at Low-A, 153 wRC+, 9.7/13.1 K/BB%, 4.9% swinging strike rate, 88.9% contact rate, .238 ISO.
Junior Caminero, 18 years old at ACL-Low-A, 143 wRC+, 15.9/8.5 K/BB%, 14.8% swinging strike rate, 72.9% contact rate, .184 ISO
Analysis: It’s official – Caceres will be better than Caminero! Just kidding, but, it’s not hard to see why the team may be reluctant to include Caceres in any potential trades. There is a lot to like about his advanced approach at the plate and burgeoning power as a teenager. Caminero being able to play third is a HUGE tilt in his value at the equivalent age, as well, but if Caceres’s bat continues to develop, Cleveland will happily put him in left or right field at Progressive Field in another couple years and call it a day.
Player Comp 5: Nolan Schubart, 22 years old at High-A-Double-A, 135 wRC+, .267 ISO, 33/20.3 K/BB%, 61% contact rate, 16.3% swinging strike rate.
Bobby Bradley, 21 years old at Double-A, 114 wRC+, .263 ISO, 25/11 K/BB%, 74.1% contact rate, 12.4% swinging strike rate.
Analysis: I am sharing this one to mention that if players like Schubart, LaViolette and Walton do not manage to cut their whiff rates soon, I don’t see much optimism that they’ll be able to help in the big leagues. There is more optimism for bats like Dean Curley and the injured Luke Hill, but I’m not sold on this “SLG AT ALL COSTS” approach that got us the former three names.
Overall, I think there is some reason for measured optimism that the next wave of bats that is lapping up on the shores of Lake Erie will help push our team out of the offensive deserted island on which they currently reside. But… it’s also no sure thing, yet. If you’re content to just wait to see the next round of youngsters solve our problems, I’d challenge you that it is no sure thing that this organization’s hitter scouting and development issues clearly seen since 2019 are on the way to being solved. The Guardians should be aggressive, then, today if there is a chance to deal a good prospect listed above for a proven, controllable bat that can reasonably help in the middle of their order.
