The 2026 MLB draft kicks off this Saturday, at 1:00pm ET. Because of MLB’s ironclad commitment to preventing this from becoming an event, it will occur while several teams are playing actual MLB games, although the Jays specifically will be in San Diego and don’t go until 8:40pm.
The first 10 picks, which will inexplicably take 90 minutes, will air on NBC and Peacock. After that, it’ll stream on MLB.com, MLB TV and MLB+, and for those who have cable MLB network will carry picks 11-40. Because why
would your own network cover the whole first day of your sport’s draft?
Day one includes the first four rounds, while day 2 on Sunday will cover rounds 5-20. That’s an upgrade over last season, as the event isn’t unnecessarily split into three days. Day 2 will also stream on MLB.com and the apps.
The Blue Jays will have a fairly quiet day one. Their first pick, which would normally be 29th overall as the World Series losers, will be bumped back 10 spots to #39 because they tried to hard to win spent over the second luxury tax threshold last season.
They also forfeited their second round pick for signing Dylan Cease after he turned down the Padres’ Qualifying offer. He’s been more than worth it, posting what’s shaping up to be arguably his best statistical season and making a strong case to be in the Cy Young mix, but given the state of the rest of the team they’ll miss the opportunity to strengthen the farm.
After #39, they’ll pick again at #103 at the back of the third round and #131 in the fourth. On day two, they’ll select #164 in the fifth round, and 29th in each round thereafter.
Their bonus pool of $5,543,100 is the second smallest ahead of only the Dodgers, who both pick after them and took two Qualifying Offer penalties in addition to the luxury tax knock back. Nearly half that money, $2.57 million, is attached to the #39 pick. As a reminder of the rules, teams pay a 50% surcharge for exceeding their bonus pool by up to 5%. About 20 teams, including the Jays, always use that 5% overage. But by crossing 5%, the penalty jumps to a 75% surcharge and the loss of a future first round pick. Nobody has ever paid that penalty, and the Jays won’t start now, so 105% of the pool less a dollar ($5,820,254) is functionally a hard cap.* That pool has to cover all of their picks in the first 10 rounds, plus any bonus amounts in rounds 11-20 larger than $150,000. If a player in the top 10 rounds fails to sign, the team forfeits the entire bonus amount associated with that pick, which can wreak havoc with plans if they’d expected to move money around between picks. For that reason, expect that teams almost always have had tentative contact with players taken in the first few rounds and know what it’ll take to land them.
*Teams can also give prospects a $2,500 roster bonus that doesn’t count against the pool. That allows the Jays to move $22,500 around, but doesn’t materially change the situation.
Strategically, their lack of resources puts them in a bit of a bind. Normally, teams have three general draft strategies available. First, they can offer an over slot bonus in the first or second round, picking up a single prospect they love at the cost of having to find some bargains later. The Jays did that in 2020 for Austin Martin and in 2022 for Brandon Barriera, but I don’t think it’s likely here for a couple of reasons. First, Austin Martin and Brandon Barriera, and the guys behind them didn’t exactly rescue those strategies. Second, because in those years they had a lot of draft capital (the 5th selection in 2020 and three second round picks in 2022), so even with a deficit to make up they could land multiple significant prospects. That’s very different from 2026.
Second, teams can play it roughly straight, giving them the “expected” amount of money to work with later on. The Trey Yesavage, Gunnar Hoglund and Alek Manoah picks in 2024, 2021 and 2019 fit that mold for Toronto, with pretty good success.
Third, they can cut a deal for a player willing to sign for less than the slot bonus at their pick to move some money down the draft, maybe getting multiple solid prospects instead of one top guy. Jojo Parker and Arjun Nimmala represent moderately under slot deals in recent years. The Jays won’t have a specific player in mind at #103 or 131 if they go that route, just the expectation that someone exciting will be around when they next pick that they can use money on. They might also wait and take a shot after the 10th round on a top tier high schooler who slides because a high bonus demand or a strong commitment to go to college make them too risky to take with a slotted pick. That was the play last year, trimming money through most of the top 10 to give $1.7 million to Blaine Bullard in the 12th round.
My sense is that the Jays are opportunistic, rather than having a clearly discernible philosophy. They were tied pretty heavily to Jojo Parker last year at #8, but Yesavage, Arjun Nimmala in 2023, Barriera, Hoglund, and Martin were all somewhat out of the blue. Those six guys represent all four major demographics in the draft (two college pitchers, a college hitter, a high school arm and a pair of high school bats), and signed at different prices relative to the slot where they were chosen. They also have totally different profiles, from a command artist in Hoglund to Yesavage’s nasty stuff and from ultra-polished hit tool over everything Martin to tool shed with swing and miss concerns Nimmala. The only common thread is that if you had been watching public scouting draft boards in the weeks before each of those drafts you’d have expected them to go sooner than they ultimately did.
That seems likely to continue in 2026. They’ll let who’s on the board at #39 dictate the shape of the remainder of the draft, probably with a preference to cut some money but a willingness to go to or above slot for the right player.
Speaking of players, this is normally where I’d take a second post to profile a half dozen likely options. That’s an exercise in futility when the first pick is outside the first round, though. Instead, tomorrow I’ll take a look at each of the four demographics and a handful of names I think might be out there for their first pick.
