Jameson Taillon brought out his A game. It’s easy to forget that he had a really great run earlier this season. Over a six-game stretch from May 14 through June 12, he made six starts — all quality starts — and went 5-1 with a 2.31 ERA over 39 innings of work. I see all of the things you all do and I understand that he’s more of a back of the rotation guy on a playoff caliber team. But that doesn’t mean he hasn’t been valuable to this team this season. With all of the injuries, he helped keep this team not
only afloat, but standing amongst the best teams in baseball.
I don’t ever think I’m particularly revealing deep, dark secrets when I talk about how the regular season is often as much about the players 25-45 in your organization matter as much as those 1-5. A lot of the small market teams are able to field a decent team from 1-15. It may lack the star power of the Dodgers, but as someone sitting down here in Tampa, the Rays have a lot of talent similar to what the Brewers field. What they can’t do is just keeping a next man up when there’s an injury or poor performance.
The Cubs have had 52 players appear for them this season. 13 hitters and 16 pitchers have produced at least 0.1 bWAR. Jameson Taillon checks in under the 1.0 bWAR mark. He’s not exactly producing immense value. And yet, the team is 12-9 when he starts. He has 10 wins now. In those 10 wins, he’s got a 1.89 ERA. Jameson isn’t a guy who racked up 10 wins pitching for a strong offensive team with a good defense. He shoved in those 10 wins.
I’m not sure I know how to identify this, but if you are going to have a starter with a 3.93 ERA, if those results are at least a little stratified, that’s more valuable than consistency is. Not that starters throw anywhere near nine innings with any frequency anymore, if you allow four runs regularly, you are going to lose a lot of games. But 10 games where you allowed basically 2 or less? Those are games, where if the offense shows up at all, you win most of the time.
The other real storyline out of this game was a couple of extra-base hits for Pete Crow-Armstrong. I had to smile during his post-game interview. I just saw a commenter noting that Ron Coomer was saying that he was out in front too much and another commenter saying JD was saying the same thing. PCA, in his interview, talked about working with Justin Turner on driving the ball to center and staying back more.
Whatever the lesson, for one day at least it appears to have paid dividends. He drove the ball a couple of times, one of those left the yard. He is very much alive for a 30 double/30 homer/30 steal season. He just needs one more homer. He’s tailed off quite a bit from his lofty first half. But also, this still ends up being a pretty special season for a 23-year-old. I’ll take it. I really hope he gets that last homer. I suspect he’ll get it before the end of this road trip.
Another win. The Cubs inch closer to clinching a postseason berth. They could do so before they leave Pittsburgh.
Pitch Counts:
- Cubs: 152, 37 BF
- Pirates: 160, 39 BF
This is another game where both teams are in that “yellow” light range. The Cubs threw 16.89 pitches per inning and the Pirates 17.78. That number of pitches suggests you worked pretty hard and things could go sideways with a mistake or two. But neither team is off the deep end in the danger zone. The Cubs only faced two fewer batters than the Pirates did and won by four. The difference? The Pirates had only three hits, one a double. The Cubs had two doubles and two homers. Those produced three of the four runs.
Out of the Cub bullpen, Michael Soroka threw 39 pitches. He hasn’t been working out of the bullpen this year, though he has in the past. Still, I wouldn’t think we’ll see him again in this series. Porter Hodge has thrown three of the last four days, threw 21 pitches and wasn’t particularly effective. I don’t think we see him before Wednesday. Craig Counsell tried to avoid using Brad Keller, but ended up using him. He only threw four pitches to close out the save, but now has also thrown three times in four games. I imagine Craig will try to stay clear of using him Tuesday too.
Could be a weird bullpen day. Caleb Thielbar, Drew Pomeranz and Andrew Kittredge for the win? Aaron Civale if they need some depth behind Cade Horton.
Three Stars:
- PCA had a double, homer, stolen base, and two runs scored. Best game in a while.
- Jameson Taillon. Six scoreless. Two hits, two walks.
- Dansby Swanson had a single, a double, a run driven in and a stolen base.
Game 150, September 15: Cubs 4, Pirates 0 (86-64)
Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.
THREE HEROES:
- Superhero: Jameson Taillon (.305). 6 IP, 22 BF, 2 H, 2 BB, 0 ER, 3 K (W 10-6)
- Hero: PCA (.096). 2-4, HR, 2B, RBI, 2 R, SB
- Sidekick: Nico Hoerner (.079). 1-4, BB, R
THREE GOATS:
- Billy Goat: Moisés Ballesteros (-.064). 0-4
- Goat: Willi Castro (-.050). 0-3, BB
- Kid: Matt Shaw (-.042). 1-3, BB, CS
WPA Play of the Game: Michael Busch hit a solo homer leading off the third inning to open the scoring. (.114)
*Pirates Play of the Game: The game was still scoreless and Matt Shaw was on first with no outs in the third. Pirate catcher Joey Bart threw Shaw out trying to steal second. (.065)
Cubs Player of the Game:
Yesterday’s Winner: Nico Hoerner received 188 out of 192 votes.
Rizzo Award Standings: (Top 5/Bottom 5)
The award is named for Anthony Rizzo, who finished first in this category three of the first four years it was in existence and four times overall. He also recorded the highest season total ever at +65.5. The point scale is three points for a Superhero down to negative three points for a Billy Goat.
- Kyle Tucker +29
- Matthew Boyd+20
- Shōta Imanaga/Jameson Taillon +19
- Cade Horton +15.5
- Julian Merryweather -15
- Dansby Swanson -17.33
- Ben Brown -19
- Carson Kelly -21
- Seiya Suzuki -29
Scoreboard Watching: Padres (Wild Card 2) 0ff (Cubs up 4). Mets (WC 3) 0ff (Cubs up 9; Mets max is 89 wins). Diamondbacks won (Cubs up 10.5; D-backs max is 87 wins). Giants lose (Cubs up 11; Giants max is 87 wins). Reds won (Cubs up 11; Reds max is 87 wins). The Cubs’ magic number to clinch a playoff spot is 2 with 12 games to go. For what it’s worth, the Brewers lost (Cubs down 5.5). We’ll count down the magic number against the Giants/Reds until the Cubs clinch a playoff spot. Then we’ll turn our attention (presumably) to the Mets and Brewers.
Up Next: The prime game of the set. Cade Horton (10-4, 2.70, 110 IP) makes his 21st start (22 appearances) of the season. He’s 5-1 with a 1.24 ERA over his last seven (36.1 IP). He’s been nothing short of spectacular. I laughed today remembering a midseason list of standout young pitchers that reside in the NL Central. I don’t recall Cade being on that list. And he’s had the best second half of all of them. June 13 Cade threw 5.2 scoreless innings against the Pirates at Wrigley Field. He allowed three hits and a walk.
Paul Skenes has a chance to win the NL Cy Young at the age of 23. He’s 10-9 with a 1.92 ERA over 178 innings. If voters can look past the Pirates’ abysmal record, which is not in any way Paul’s fault, he’s probably been the best pitcher in the NL. He’s 4-1 with a 1.58 ERA over his last seven (40 IP). So he’s finishing particularly strong and some wins have finally come. He faced Horton in that June 13 game and also threw five scoreless. He’s 0-1 against the Cubs this year with three runs allowed in 10 innings. He was 2-0 against the Cubs last year in three starts. In three of his five career starts against the Cubs, he allowed no runs.
This will be a tough one. But Cade keeps passing these tests. Same formula. Keep it close early and win late.
