What the A’s hoped would be a contending year turned into squarely a “development” year, even though the AL West is currently paced, with 8 games left, by two teams who sit at 77-77. Did the wheat and chaff separate itself for the A’s to properly assess their 2027 options? Quite a bit, actually…
Wheat: Henry Bolte
Bolte came out like a lightning bolte, then suffered through a horrendous July (.164/.243/.224, 27 wRC+), then rebounded big time. In aggregate, Bolte is looking more and more each day like “the
real deal,” especially when you consider that his latest exploits are his finest.
While Bolte still has areas in need of refining, such as his reads on pop flies and a K rate still too high at 28.5%, two key patterns have emerged recently.
One is that Bolte’s patience doesn’t just result in too many called third strikes — it also allows him to maintain a high OBP as a lead off hitter by working the count and drawing his fair share of walks. Bolte’s 8.3% BB rate is boosted by his knack for drawing the other kind of freebie: he leads the team far and away with 14 HBP. All this has helped keep Bolte’s OBP robust at .358, impressive for a 23 year old rookie.
Wednesday’s game also featured an important milestone when Bolte took Nick Martinez deep for his 11th HR of the season. At the end of the day Bolte’s slugging percentage sat above .400 for the first time. No one doubts that Bolte has raw power, but the slugging has been slow to come due to a scarcity of balls lifted beyond the infield. That is shifting and with the slugging percentage creeping ever higher.
A stat that has been worth watching throughout is Bolte’s line drive %, which has been steadily well below average since his call up, generally checking in around 12%-15% where league average is around 20%. Progress is also being seen here as the A’s CFer has his LD% now up to 16.9% overall thanks to a solid 22.8% in August, 18.2% so far in September.
And for all the gnashing of teeth each time he gets a slow read on a pop fly and Bledays it into a single, in fact Bolte is putting up excellent defensive numbers in CF thanks to his excellent range from left-center to right-center and on balls over his head. He is at +4 DRS/+3 OAA in CF, more than good enough to warrant every day playing time.
Zack Gelof and Lawrence Butler have taught us not to fall in love too quickly with a terrific partial season and not to give up too fast on a fallen star, and the jury is still out on who Bolte will prove to be long term. But right now he’s looking like an essential core piece with exciting upside, just 110 games into his MLB career.
Chaff: Tommy White
Early in his rookie season White had not one but two 4-hit games, and in Tampa Bay he HRed as part of a 3-hit night. Enjoy the occasional successes because if there’s one thing White has established in his maiden voyage is that he’s bad at everything.
Even with those pleasant 3 games, White’s season slash line stands at .253/.269/.335, good (bad) for a 58 wRC+, result of a terrible hacktastic approach of swinging early and often and getting himself out as often as the opposing pitcher plays a role.
Give White “credit” for consistency. His wRC+s month by month, beginning with his July call up, have been 62, 56, 56. His BB rate, discovered by scientists using a powerful microscope, is 2.3%, and due to swinging at scores of pitches he can’t do anything productive with, “Tommy Tanks”‘s ISO sits at a woeful .082 with among the lowest exit velocity in the league.
Defensively, White is at -3 OAA at 3B in just 173 innings. Over at 1B he’s not much better, with -2 OAA in 196 innings.
None of this is a product of White being rushed due to injuries on the infield necessitating his call up. White is doing exactly what he has been doing throughout his time in the minors and it is playing out just as you would expect.
White was drafted just before the Red Sox selected SP Peyton Tolle. Oops.
Honorable Mention:
Despite the unfortunate HR served up to Jose Ramirez last night on a flat changeup, I like Seth Johnson as a potential plus reliever going forward. He’s no sure thing, as his career 7.34 ERA reflects, but he has a plus fastball and curve with a developing changeup and has shown several flashed of genuine dominance. He’s someone I think the A’s should give a longer look to in 2027.
Alika Williams can’t actually hit, even though he has put up respectable numbers and yet he is an excellent utility infielder to have on the roster. His offensive shortcomings come partly from being too vulnerable to RHP (he doesn’t recognize spin well, helping to produce his .220/.259/.358, 61 wrC+ line), but against LHP he is at .304/.347/.489, 126 wRC+ and might be league average against LHP going forward.
More to the point Alika is a slick fielding SS and 2Bman who provides legitimate value defensively on the infield. He even reminds me just a tad of Mark Ellis in the way he seems to get such a good ‘jump’ on ground balls, seemingly moving in the right direction as the ball is hit. I feel like Williams is what the A’s hoped Nick Allen would be.
Dishonorable Mention:
Chris Roycroft, like Johnson, has a big time arm but I’m not sold on his stuff/control/command playing any better than Joel Kuhnel’s. Kuhnel has had flashes of brilliance with 3 different teams this season including the A’s, but ultimately just isn’t very good. I see Roycroft following the same path — he’s still worth a look in a lost season but I’m not holding my breath.
Carlos Cortes’ April was super fun and it’s odd how mediocre players can have incredible months out of nowhere. But enough about John Mabry. Cortes has come crashing back to earth and with Soderstrom-Bolte-Butler set in the OF with Denzel Clarke profiling as an ideal 4th OFer, Devin Taylor knocking on the door and Drew Burress not far behind, I don’t see a place for Cortes on the future A’s.
For one thing Cortes is unplayably bad in the outfield, a truth that becomes more exposed the more he is put out there. In just 731 innings (the equivalent of half a season), Cortes is at -8 DRS/-8 OAA and to the eyeballs those numbers feel generous.
At the plate, the Cortes who worked the count for 12-14 pitch at bats, sprayed liners to all fields, and could turn on an inside pitch to wallop it 400 feet? That guy hasn’t been around for a loooong time. Cortes hit .106/.160/.170 in June, and is batting all of .207/.258/.314, 50 wRC+ since the All-Star break.
Certainly he’s better than that, but he has to hit a ton to offer any value because his defense is so bad. And don’t get excited about him pinch hitting, because as a pinch hitter he has been especially terrible, going 2 for 22 with 8 K.
Any wheat/chaff additions to suggest? And do you buy, or refute, these assessments? Food for banter until the A’s battle the Guardians again at 3:10pm PDT…
