Welcome back to another year of football. We at value of things have a tradition that we do every week. You will see two features on a weekly the basis. The first will usually be a post-mortem on the previous’s weeks games. That will come on Monday or Tuesday depending on when the game was played. We will include the relevant numbers from the game and either a great, good, and bad in victory or good, bad, and ugly in defeat. Then, later in the week you will see “By the numbers.” It is a simple look
at the rankings on offense and defense to give us some idea of what each team will try to attack in the upcoming game.
Early season games are difficult at best. Small sample sizes are the enemy of good analysis and a look at the previous season’s numbers is often even less significant. However, it is all we got in the early going. Obviously, we could do a huge deep dive into numbers and as much as I love deep dives, we want to keep this relatively simple so that everyone can digest it well. Below is a table of how each team ranked in passing yards, rushing yards, and passing yards defended, and rushing yards defended. It isn’t perfect and I know regular commenters will beg for more. We might get there in subsequent looks, but really this is what we have going in.
Keep in mind that all numbers have a context and they often play against each other in what Bill O’Brien used to lovingly call “complimentary football.” Being in the top of the league or bottom of the league in total yards in rushing or passing is not necessarily an indicator of anything by itself. For instance, the Bills struggled against the run, so teams just didn’t pass as much against them. They didn’t need to. On the flip side, when you are in the top ten in both categories (as the Texans are) then that means you have a really good overall defense. I know I’m not breaking any new ground here.
What will the Bills offense try to do?
It seems counterintuitive sometimes when you have a former league MVP at quarterback, but the key to the Bills offense is their rushing attack. Obviously, Josh Allen is a huge part of that. Still, if the Bills can run the football without Allen then they will be stay ahead of the sticks and keep the Texans’ pass rush at bay. Obviously, the Texans have been effective at stopping the run and some new defensive additions aim to get even better in that department. Allen has been harassed in two games against the defense and if they have to rely on his right arm to move the football it could be a long day for him again.
What will the Bills defense try to do?
It’s probably simple enough to say that whichever team runs the football most effectively will win the game. This is the weakness of the Bills’ defense, but it is something they hope they have addressed effectively in the offseason. Historically, the Texans have not been effective running the football, so this is a historical contest between two weak links to see which one has the upper hand.
What will the Texans offense try to do?
This is simple. They have to run the football effectively. That means converting on third and short and fourth and short to keep the sticks moving. If they are able to do that they will win the time of possession battle and keep their defense fresh. A fresh defense means more harassment and it means a more desperate Bills attack that will take chances. The numbers above don’t really capture the whole truth on the Texans history of running the football. They have been inconsistent from game to game in the past and the preseason didn’t show much as we did not see a lot of the starters. It is the biggest unknown of the entire offseason.
What will the Texans defense try to do?
This one is also simple. If the Texans can make the Bills one-dimensional then they will have a feast day again. The key is keeping them behind the sticks and keeping Allen bottled up in the pocket. History has shown that he will take chances and sometimes gets burned by those chances. Getting key turnovers in the game obviously feeds right into that offensive philosophy above. In particular, look for J.D. Clowney to play a key role in setting the edge on rushing plays when he is in the game. He gives the Texans a dimension they did not have in the last couple of seasons.
