2025 stats: 128 G, 535 PA, .231/.340/.430, .198 ISO, 13 BB%, 25 K%, 118 wRC+, 3.7 fWAR
Here it is. The moment that the Giants’ 2025 season tripped over itself and started its long tumble to kaput.
Note Matt
Chapman’s right hand. See the squish of digits, wrist bent awkwardly over palm, all crushed by his thigh as he helplessly dove back to first on a throw over in the 8th inning on the 8th of June.
Out on the pick-off and out for a month — it might as well have been out for the season…
Overly dramatic? Maybe, but the point is this is a penny-on-the-tracks moment. Chapman was an offensive train going full-steam ahead and this awkward slide derailed it. At that point in the season, the third baseman had managed a seamless transition from one year to the other. 2024, his debut season with San Francisco, was a renaissance heavy with a bounty of trophies and accolades and firmly cemented Chapman as the backbone of the roster. TDespite the intervening off-season months, the transition into his second year went seamlessly, as if no time had passed at all. There he was as resolute and as sturdy as ever. Habit and control manifest as he charged in on a slow-roller, or barreled a pitch back up the middle. Chapman was the same, only the dates had changed.
By June 8th, the Giants were ten games above .500, a game behind LA for the NL West, and Chapman had been on the field for all of it. He was hitting the baseball as hard as ever (94 MPH avg. EV) and working walks at a higher clip (15%) than at any other point in his career. His .209 ISO paced the roster and his overall 132 wRC+ (272 PA) was second to Heliot Ramos’s 136 wRC+. Things were starting to look up after a so-so May for San Francisco. A sweep of Atlanta was imminent, made all the sweeter by a walk-off wild pitch on Friday chased with Chapman’s walk-off 2-run homer on Saturday.
Then in the 8th inning with a 4-3 lead, Chapman got caught jumping. He went towards second as Braves’ reliever Dylan Dodd went towards first. In the scramble back to the bag, Chapman fell on his hand — the one without the oven-mitt. A cruel flop that couldn’t have come at a worse time: the injury grounded Chapman at the very moment Willy Adames was about to take flight.
Chapman wouldn’t take the field again until July 5th, and when he returned it was clear that he wasn’t operating at 100-percent and acknowledged he probably wouldn’t be until he could properly rest the hand during the winter. He’d miss ten more games in August citing a nagging discomfort. I get it: it’s hard writing a blog post with stiff fingers, or a numb hand — imagine throwing a baseball across a diamond, or swinging a bat at a 95 MPH pitch.
The missed time meant Chapman would only play in 128 games, his lowest season total (not counting 2020) since 2017 when he first broke into the Majors. The injury cut his season nearly perfectly down the middle. The 132 wRC+ he posted over his first 65 games (272 PA) dropped to 104 wRC+ over his final 63 games (263 PA). He still had a keen eye for the strike zone but the batted ball stats suffered. The average exit velocity dropped to 90 MPH — still pretty solid, but not as effective considering that a lot of that hard contact was being directed into the ground. The groundball rate off his bat jumped from 35% to 45%, as did his batted ball rate to his pull-side, which speaks to a lack of confidence in his top hand. He had to cheat, start swings earlier to generate power. This inevitably led to a lot of rolled-over baseballs rather than what we typically see of him, which is directing a lot of pitches back up the middle.
Even with this second half fall-off, Chapman’s overall numbers were able to remain pretty solid. The team as a whole weren’t so lucky. After posting the fifth best record in the National League through June 8th, the Giants went 43-53 for the remainder of the season which was the 11th best record in the NL — bad enough to have postseason contention slip their fingers.
A year that “could’ve been” for the Giants and for Chapman — it wasn’t all loss though. He was just announced as a finalist for another Silver Slugger Award. He won’t get a chance to defend his National League Gold Glove at third considering both Fangraphs and Statcast measured a regression on his fielding performance compared to 2024 — but measuring Chapman’s defensive seasons is a bit like ranking Paul Thomas Anderson films. When you produce the defensive equivalent of “There Will Be Blood” or “The Master,” other great (but not as-great) performances like “Inherent Vice” will find it hard to measure up.
The San Francisco Giants have locked up the left-side of the infield for the remainder of the decade. Matt Chapman and Willy Adames are signed to be the backbone and heart of this line-up. What fed the excitement and anticipation of fans going into the 2025 season was the prospect of seeing those two play together. Their chemistry was meant to animate a roster that was a flesh bag without them. While we were treated to glimpses of this partnership, one of the defining bummers of this past season was the fact that the dominant coordinating conjunction between these two key players was or rather than and.
Adames’s 135 wRC+ post June 8th swapped with Chapman’s wRC+ pre-June 8th. Like ships in the night, when one arrived, the other went. As aggravating as this was to watch, all is not lost. The pairing is still promised. We have this to look forward to in 2026 — finally , hopefully, a roster with Chapman and Adames actually synced.
