Hey everyone,
Happy Friday and welcome to this week’s mailbag post. On Monday I asked for questions and boy did you deliver! We had a bumper crop of questions this week, so this post is longer than usual.
I think we can chalk that up to all the excitement that was generated at UFC 333. We had a number of questions regarding the fallout from both Alexander Volkanovski vs. Movsar Evloev and Petr Yan vs. Merab Dvalishvili 2. We also got a few questions about UFC Halloween, which is a little surprising.
Scroll down to see what we were asked and what we had to say about it all.
Gunning for Gaethje
Question: Who should get the first (and potentially only) shot at Gaethje’s belt, Volkanovski or Tsaryukan? (Jack Reacharound)
Jesse Holland: Alexander Volkanovski had his shot at the lightweight title (twice) and he failed. Had he beaten Ilia Topuria at UFC 298 then I would be first in line for a third try; but he didn’t, so there’s no great argument to have Volkanovski cutting Topuria or Tsarukyan in the lightweight line.
Alex Behunin: The only answer is Arman Tsarukyan. I love Volk, and I love the idea of a super fight, but Arman has served his time in UFC jail and has earned it.
Thomas Myers: Tsaryukan, and it’s not even close. Volkanovski has proven, twice, that he is not Lightweight championship material. Having said that, Gaethje seemingly only has one fight left in him, so maybe he gets some sort of decision-making on his retirement fight. I think if UFC really wanted to sell tix, make Gaethje happy and deliver a must-watch fight, Max Holloway gets the nod.
Arman vs. Gaethje – the winner gets the winner of Ilia vs. Paddy.
Tim Edwards: It should be Arman Tsarukyan. But, to me, it feels like it’s going to be Volkanovski. This feels a lot like when Jon Jones was trying to manufacture the best swan song possible and the UFC were willing to play ball with that. I think there’s a chance the UFC works with Gaethje and Volkanovski to make this happen, since I think Gaethje would probably prefer this match-up over Tsarukyan.
GOAT Talk
Question: Is Volkanovski the GOAT @ 145 lbs? And is he a top 5 of all-time, regardless of division? (Jack Reacharound)
Jesse Holland: I consider Alexander Volkanovski the greatest featherweight in history. Aside from his record-setting nine title fight wins, his strength of schedule puts him in a league of his own. Trying to use the Ilia Topuria loss to argue against that is like ranking Chris Weidman over Anderson Silva as the middleweight GOAT.
Thomas Myers: Yes, he’s the Featherweight G.O.A.T. … and no, not on MMA’s Mt. Rushmore.
Alex Behunin: It was Jose Aldo for me due to title defenses, but this latest win has pushed Volkanovski atop Aldo for me – which feels weird because I’m such an MMA oldhead, but Volk is him.
Volk
Aldo
Max
Tim Edwards: He’s my GOAT. And it takes a lot for me to say that, since Jose Aldo has been one of my favorite fighters since the WEC days. As far as top five, all-time… He doesn’t crack mine: Georges St-Pierre, Anderson Silva, Fedor Emelianenko, Jon Jones and Demetrious Johnson have it locked down for now. And yes I do need to hold my nose when I put Jones in that list.
Evloev’s Issues
Q: Unless Movsar Evloev makes drastic changes to both his activity level and fighting style, is this the only time we’ll ever see him in a title fight in the UFC? (Igl00Man)
Jesse Holland: UFC didn’t want him to fight for the title to begin with, so now that he’s been defeated, it would take an act of God or a 10-fight win streak with 10 knockouts for Movsar Evloev to see a second title shot. The Russian turns 33 in February and I think it’s too late to teach this old dog new tricks.
Thomas Myers: Yes, UFC was reluctant to award him a title shot and that listless performance proved that their hesitance was correct.I know that I don’t want to see him in a title fight again, and I can’t imagine that I am alone on that front. There are more exciting, marketable options.
Alex Behunin: I still think Movsar beats most of the division, but I think the UFC brass is going to rebook him vs. Pico next – and that is an awful matchup for him … meaning he’s going to be on a two-fight losing streak and nowhere near title land.
Tim Edwards: This isn’t the last we’ve seen of Evloev. I think this is like Topuria’s loss to Gaethje, where a really great fighter came up against someone who is also excellent and was able to seize the moment when it came. I think he’s probably going to factor in the post-Volkanovski landscape at Featherweight.
Epic Trilogy
Q: where do you rank the Merab-Yan trilogy all time? (cavemanoncomputer)
Jesse Holland: It’s definitely up there. My personal favorites are Chuck Liddell vs. Randy Couture, Conor McGregor vs. Dustin Poirier, and Frankie Edgar vs. Gray Maynard.
Alex Behunin: Considering the storyline with Merab blanking him in the first fight, Yan blanking him in the second fight, and then the third fight being so competitive – it’ll be ranked very highly all-time.
I’d say top 10 for me right now. – Maybe I’ll do a best trilogies of all time list.
Thanks for the idea!
Tim Edwards: As far as the quality of individual fights, I don’t think you can beat it, personally. Each contest was fascinating and an amazing rebuke of the UFC’s present day shift of trying to make every fight a 90 second KO.
Any advice?
Q: What do you do with Alexander Volkov? (cavemanoncomputer)
Jesse Holland: That depends on the Ciryl Gane vs. Josh Hokit fight at UFC 334. A victory for Gane should set up the rematch against Alexander Volkov, who got screwed in his first fight against “Bon Gamin.” If Hokit wins, I think Volkov gets Gane anyway if Alex Pereira beats Sergei Pavlovich at UFC 335. If Pereira loses, it’s Hokit vs. Volkov, which sounds funny when I say it out loud.
Thomas Myers: I think this all hinges on Aspinall – if he returns soon, Volkov is likely on the outside looking in. If Pereira defeats Pavlovich, my guess is he’d have to take one more super tough fight before earning a much-deserved title shot if Aspinall returns to fight the winner of Gane vs. Hokit.
Alex Behunin: He’s pretty fucked if Aspinall comes back or Alex Pereira wins – but if neither of those happen, he’ll get next.
Tim Edwards: He’s gotta get into as many Nina Drama videos as possible.
Moicano the Gate Keeper
Q: Renato Moicano: contender or gate keeper? (Jack Reacharound)
Jesse Holland: Renato Moicano is a true gatekeeper. He crushes cans and goes from contender to pretender against the Top 5. He calls himself “Money” but in 20 UFC fights he’s only scored two post-fight performance bonuses.
Alex Behunin: He’s definitely more of a gatekeeper than a contender at this point. But he’s still a Top 15 fighter in the most cut-throat division. I guess I can share this story now – Over the past three-ish months, I’ve talked to about 40 fighters from American Top Team, and I asked them all who is the toughest person to spar with – all but 4 of them (because they were bigger) said Moicano.
Thomas Myers: I think he’s certainly knocking on the door – I don’t think he beats the seven contenders seeded in front of him. And the seven fighters ranked behind him – Mateusz Gamrot, Mauricio Ruffy, Grant Dawson, Tom Nolan, Tofiq Musayev, Rafael Fiziev and Esteban Ribovics – would almost all be a handful for “Money.” There are times, though, like against Chris Duncan, where Moicano still looks like a stud. I think he’s just a very tough, well-rounded finisher who might have one final (failed) push to the Top 5 if he can topple the latest up-and-comer.
Tim Edwards: His performances against Islam Makhachev and then Beneil Dariush made him look like a pretender. And the win over Benoit Saint-Denis has lost some lustre with BSD’s loss to Paddy Pimblett. I think he’s closer to gate keeper than contender right now. But I don’t think he’s a very good gate keeper, since he’s not letting many folks through. And I think he shuts the gate on Nolan this weekend, too.
Dana’s Dilemma
Q: My 1st question! I’m such a babe in the MMA woods lol. Given the landscape of these prelim-level main events, do we think this is mainly due to the lack of stars and the current model for filling cards with contender series fighters? Could it also be that Dana White is divesting in this sport as he dives all the way into boxing? Both-And? Apologies if we’ve discussed this already. (Piccolo Monstero)
Jesse Holland: UFC structured its Paramount+ deal the same way it did ESPN+, promising (on average) UFC cards every weekend in addition to relevant shoulder programming. There is not enough quality talent to make every card (or even most cards) exciting but that is not how UFC is packaged and sold. UFC is the star you are tuning in to watch, not the fighters who command top billing.
Thomas Myers: Dana White and Co. need to meet a contractual quota for Paramount+ … and it’s significant. Even with Contender Series, it’s hard to fill 12-fight card events with notable talent from top to bottom each week. It doesn’t help that White has his own side quests like Power Slap and whatever else and can’t even promote numbered events well (see Cong, Wang for evidence of that). The bad news? UFC still makes money hand over fist for TKO Global Inc., so don’t expect much to change moving forward.
Alex Behunin: UFC is already bought and paid for the next 7 years, meaning the promotion can do whatever they want to and book as many shitty fights as they want to fill the 43 events per year.
There definitely is a huge lack of star power, so hopefully there will be a few fighters that will break through.
Latest Fraud Check
Q: Losene Keita fraud checked? He’s got 1 win the UFC, over Naimov (who’s umm not top 10 shall we say), lost to a very technical non-finisher Nathaniel Wood and got destroyed by Aaron Pico. He was never in the fight against Pico. I mean for all his hype, that’s not much of a resume. (LoneCowboy)
Jesse Holland: Losene Keita was a betting underdog against Aaron Pico, so I don’t think that qualifies as a fraud check. I also don’t think “Black Panther” was overly hyped, he was more in that “one to watch” category. And we did watch. We watched him get destroyed.
Alex Behunin: No, I don’t think he was fraud-checked because I don’t think Wood or Pico are bad fighters. He just ran into Pico – who at his best is UFC champion caliber – also, it was on shorter notice.
I am Keita mark though, and believe he’ll be a mainstay in the Featherweight division for years to come.
Thomas Myers: He’s not for me. I am not a Pico fan (don’t trust his chin or IQ), but Keita proved that he has an even worse chin (and IQ). My guess is UFC probably puts him up against a wrestler (or someone who is more comfortable on the ground) when he returns next to really see what they have … and I don’t think it’s much long-term.
Missing Longo
Q: Do you think Merab missed Ray Longo in his corner (He didn’t travel, they specifically pointed it out). He was doing great in the 1st and 2nd but as Petr adjusted, he failed to adjust back. (LoneCowboy)
Thomas Myers: I asked myself this same question when I learned, during his walkout, that Longo was not cornering him. And it alarmed me. I think Merab is Merab, but after that second round, he needed some real focusing, direction. He was so sloppy, all over the place, and could not extend a takedown to save his life. That’s more on how good Petr Yan really is, and how prepared he was for the “The Machine.” I just think having Longo in his corner might have given him the extra push, and raw, motivating truth, that he needed to do something different, or push even harder, down the stretch. In short, Merab needed everything in his toolkit to beat Yan … and he didn’t have it. We will never really know.
Jesse Holland: I don’t think Merab has anything to adjust. What you see is what you get when it comes to “The Machine” and I doubt Ray Longo could have screamed anything loud enough to change that.
Alex Behunin: I think Ray Longo, Trevor Whittman, and Firas Zahabi could have been in Merab’s corner and he still would have lost. Petr Yan just has his number now.
Prospect Watch
Q: Tom Nolan and Jacobe Smith are both up & coming prospects being highlighted on the upcoming card. Are either of them the real deal or just the next hype jobs? (Jack Reacharound)
Jesse Holland: Jacobe Smith turns 31 in January and is currently competing in his competitive prime, so I think he’s either got it or he doesn’t. Sadly, we may not get that answer against Randy Brown. No disrespect to Brown but “Rude Boy” is not ranked and has lost two straight and three of his last four. As for Tom Nolan, he’s still just 26 and may need more time under the lamps. I’m not sure he survives a crafty veteran like Renato Moicano.
Alex Behunin: Jacobe Smith is the real deal, and I peg him as a future champion. He’s knocking people out and hasn’t even really shown his elite wrestling. Plus he’s left Fortis MMA (thank god) and is training under DC now.
As for Tom Nolan, I’m not sold yet. Moicano will be a good name on his resume if he wins, and he is only 26, so time will tell.
Thomas Myers: I absolutely love the potential I see in Jacobe Smith – I think he’s the real deal. A violent and dynamic finisher, too. I feel like Nolan is tough, has solid all-around skills but is just that, solid? If he finishes Moicano, I might start to lean a different way, but for now, I’d be buying Jacobe Smith stock in heaps and selling Nolan’s quietly.
Quick hits
Q: What fight from the past would have been perfect on a Halloween fight card? (Jack Reacharound)
Jesse Holland: Well if we are going by nicknames then we gotta have Cole Craig (“Jack the Pumpkin King”), Alyssa Krahn (“Pumpkin Spice”), or Chang Hee Kim (“Korean Goblin Pumpkin”) in the lineup. If we are going solely on looks, then let’s book Colin “Freakshow” Fletcher, dude is the closest thing you can get to Nosferatu.
Alex Behunin: Wanderlei Silva vs. Thiago Silva
Thomas Myers: Ion Cutelaba vs. Tom Lawlor
Tim Edwards: The one where Marvin Eastman looked like he had been attacked with a machete.
Q: Assuming Prates-Morales goes ahead as planned, are we hoping for an Islam defense next summer at best? (cavemanoncomputer)
Jesse Holland: Ramadan ends in March so it’s reasonable to think Islam Makhachev will be able to headline the promotion’s annual Memorial Day Weekend extravaganza in May 2027.
Alex Behunin: May in New Jersey.
Q: How would you personally organize the picture at 135? (cavemanoncomputer)
Jesse Holland: Song Yadong lost to Sean O’Malley THIS YEAR and already holds a loss to Petr Yan, so Yan-O’Malley is the right fight in my opinion. Song Yadong vs. Mario Bautista title eliminator on the same card? Then David Martinez vs. Umar Nurmagomedov or Cory Sandhagen?
Alex Behunin:
Yan vs. O’Malley 2
Yadong vs. Bautista
Merab vs. Umar 2
Sandhagen vs. Talbott
Martinez vs. Rosas Jr.
Q: It really looked like Evloev simply folded, does he mentally come back from the defeat? Because he really didn’t handle not being the hammer very well. (LoneCowboy)
Jesse Holland: Great fighters come back stronger after a loss because it teaches them something they refuse to accept when they’re on top: everyone has weaknesses and vulnerabilities and anyone can lose if their opponent has the right gameplan. Understanding those weaknesses (and more importantly embracing them) allows a fighter to navigate a course around those deficiencies during a tough fight. Time to see what Movsar is made of.
Tim Edwards: I was paying attention to some of the pre-fight stuff with Evloev and he seemed like quite an honest and earnest guy. I think what we saw was an honest and earnest reaction to losing the biggest fight of his life.
Q: What happens at 145 when Volk is gone? (cavemanoncomputer)
Jesse Holland: Kind of feels like he’s already gone based on all this silly Justin Gaethje talk. Jean Silva will definitely be in the conversation – and keep an eye on the Aljamain Sterling vs. Kevin Vallejos fight at UFC Qatar, that’s going to have serious title implications for 2027.
Alex Behunin: I’m on the Volkanovski vs. Sterling train … if he gets past Vallejos. That’ll probably be it for Volkanovski, win or lose. But I think the UFC is in good hands with how many fun Featherweights they have
Silva vs. Vallejos 2 is going to be cinem
