The 9-seeded Iowa Hawkeyes (22-12, 10-10) take on the 1-seeded, and defending national champions, Florida Gators (27-7, 16-2) this evening in Tampa, FL. It’s the first chance Iowa’s got of getting to the Sweet 16 since 2021 and it is a slim one. Team Rankings gives the Hawks about a 20% chance while KenPom has it at 25%. As has been the common refrain throughout many upset storylines – all it takes is the 1 out of a 1/4 shot to advance.
The odds are well-founded, as few teams enter the NCAA Tournament
as hot as the Gators, with a 17-2 record since a conference-opening loss at Missouri. If there’s anything to discount that, it’s that KenPom has the Gators as the SEC’s only top 10 team (5), though there are four more rated in the top 20.
Iowa, of course, is winless against KenPom top 10 teams (0-6) with #12 Nebraska being Iowa’s best win according to the metric. Only two have been blowouts, with Iowa sticking around against ISU, Illinois, Purdue (the first time), and Michigan.
The key for the Hawks will be preventing runs. Here’s what KenPom has for runs given up in their top 10 matchups:
- 24-4 & 12-2 at Michigan State
- 24-3 at Iowa State
- 13-0 v Illinois
- 15-2 & 13-2 v Purdue
KenPom clocked Florida’s runs against Prairie View A&M at 45-6 (to close the first half), 14-2, and 13-1. They are a LOAD.
In the games where Iowa’s had their best chance to knock off top teams, they’ve been able to put together runs of their own. 13-2 at ISU, 10-0 at Purdue, and two 11-1 runs v Michigan allowed the Hawks to stick around at the end.
The other thing that sticks out about Florida is their size: they’ve started essentially the same lineup in all 34 games to this point and go: 6’9” Thomas Haugh, 6’11” Reuben Chinyelu, and 6’11” Alex Condon. Each of them average over 11 points and 6 rebounds. And if that isn’t enough, 7’1” Micah Handlogten comes off the bench.
The Gators use their size to lock down the glass, with top 10 rankings in offensive & defensive rebounding rate so Iowa’s ability to extend possessions against Clemson via offensive rebounding is likely to dry up.
The path to victory for the Hawks looks like a very clear one, even if it’s unlikely: win the 3-point battle. While Iowa ranks just 100th in 3-point %, it’s well above where Florida lands at 315th. Given Iowa’s inability to protect the rim (53.9% 2P% allowed), putting as many bodies in the paint to make those entry passes & drives difficult and force late shot clock 3s over the top feels like the gameplan.
Additionally, the Gators are a little looser with the ball than Clemson is, with a turnover % of 16.3%. Iowa will need to force magnitudes more than the 3 they got out of the Tigers in the first round.
It all comes together if Iowa is able to shorten the game via pace. If it’s in the range of 60 possessions (KenPom clocked the Hawks’ win over Clemson at 54), Iowa probably has a chance if they’ve forced 12-15 turnovers and hit 10+ 3s. Tall tasks, no doubt, but a path.
#9 Iowa Hawkeyes (22-12, 10-10) vs #1 Florida Gators (27-7, 16-2)
Today, 3/22, at 6:10 PM CT, TBS (Tom McCarthy, Dan Bonner, Candace Parker, AJ Ross)
Benchmark International Arena, Tampa, FL
Hawkeye Radio Network
Westwood One
Live Stats (NCAA)
Stat Pack
Todd Golden (103-40 at Florida, 160-76)
KenPom ($): +34.06; 5th (125.9; 9th | 91.8; 6th)
BartTorvik: 5th (126.7; 11th | 92.5; 5th)
Sports-Ref:
PPG: 87.6 (8th) | 71.5 (112th)
RPG: 45.7 | 30.6
Leaders (via Sports-Ref)
PPG: Thomas Haugh (17.0); Alex Condon (14.9)
RPG: Rueben Chinyelu (11.5; 4.0 off); Condon (7.5; 2.3 off)
APG: Xaivian Lee (4.2); Condon (3.5)
FG% (min 10 MPG, 2 FGA/game): Micah Handlogten (64.4%); Chinyelu (58.6%)
3P% (min 1 3PA/game): Urban Klayzar (40.5%); Isaiah Brown (34.6%)
Last 5 games:
3/20: W v Prairie View A&M (N): 114-55
3/14: L v Vanderbilt (N): 91-74
3/13: W v Kentucky (N): 71-63
3/7: W at Kentucky: 84-77
3/3: W v Mississippi State: 108-74
Let’s go Hawks!
