When: Saturday February 14 – 4:00 PM
Where: Lenovo Center
TV: ESPN2
Opponent: Miami Hurricanes
Prediction – KenPom (KP) / Bart Torvik (BT): NC State 81-76 / NC State 83-76
Wolfpack Snapshot:
- Record: 18-7, 9-3
- Rankings: KP #26, BT #26
- NET: 29 (Q1: 3-5, Q2: 8-1, Q3: 3-1, Q4: 4-0) – 5th highest NET in the ACC
Wolfpack Season
So Far:
Coach Wade after Louisville: “This should never happen. That’s not the standards of our program. … It’s embarrassing for myself, it’s embarrassing for our program and it’s embarrassing for our fans.”
“We’re going to be judged on how we respond. I told the guys afterwards I still believe in them, but we had a major setback.”
What’s On the Line?
Miami is NET 36, this is a Q2 game. Overall, the NET impact of this one game is less critical than the Wolfpack’s ability to bounce back from a humbling trip to the woodshed last Monday night.
Key Player Injuries – Not Expected to Play
Terrance Arceneaux – Hurt his ankle/achilles again against Louisville. Coach Wade did not seem to concerned in the radio show, but no specifics.
Opponent Overview:
Old timers remember Maryland’s All-American point guard John Lucas. He is good friends with Jim Larranaga. (wink wink) First year Miami head coach Jai Lucas is John’s younger son. Lucas is known as a dynamite recruiter and got his first head coaching job this season after previously working as an assistant for Jon Scheyer at Duke.
Like everyone else these days, Coach Lucas had to rebuild his entire team. He brought in 6 freshmen, 6 transfers and one international player.
Starters:
- Tre Donaldson – Started every game for Michigan last season.
- Ernest Udeh Jr – Started every game for TCU last season
- Malik Reneau – Started 19 of 26 games for Indiana last season
- Shelton Henderson – 4-star top 50 freshman
- Dante Allen – 4-star, top 50 freshman
Opponent Snapshot:
- Record: 19-5, 8-3
- Rankings: KP #41, BT #45
- NET: 36 (Q1: 3-3, Q2: 4-1, Q3: 3-1, Q4: 9-0) – 8th highest NET in the ACC
Their Season So Far:
Miami got their best win of the season Tuesday, leading wire-to-wire and beating UNC 75-66. UNC insiders tell me that Hubert was unable to book the ‘blue crew’ refs he had at the Duke game and ended up with 18 fouls called to the Hurricanes’ 9, resulting in a 6-point advantage from the line. Miami’s Udeh Jr and Reneau each had double-doubles to help Miami also win the battle of the glass. UNC’s Caleb Wilson is reported to have fractured a bone in his hand in the first half, so that gets partial credit for the Miami win as well.
Player Notes
- Reneau is the 5th leading scorer in ACC play
- Udeh Jr is the 2nd leading rebounder in ACC play
- Henderson has the 5th best FG% in ACC play
- Donaldson is 4th in assists in ACC play
Key Player Injuries – Not Expected to Play
- Tru Washington – started 19 games (11.8 pts / 4 reb / 1.75 ast) – Head Coach Jai Lucas before UNC, “”He’s not back yet, He’s still dealing with some personal stuff, and we’re just here to support him.”
What to watch for:
- NCST – three players to watch – at least two have to have really good games for the Wolfpack to win
- Paul McNeil – P2 went scoreless against Louisville, only the second time (VCU) that has happened this season. He played 26 minutes and had 1 assist, 2 turnovers and 4 fouls.
- Darrion Williams – D1 had 8/5/2 and 3 steals against Louisville. Not awful, unless you are the team’s anchor and you shoot 23.1% / 28.6% and don’t get to the free throw line at all.
- Quadir Copeland – The Oscar Robinson National Player of the Week had only 3 assists at Louisville after 3 consecutive double digit games, tied (Aub, BSU, NCCU) for his fewest of the season.
- NCST – record watch – McNeil has 77 made 3PT shots after 25 games. He’s averaging 3.08 per game, tracking for 95 in the regular season. DJ Horne’s record is 105 (88 reg. season, 17 post season)
- UM – strength – shooting – Ranks 3rd in ACC play in FG%, KP ranks them 25th in eFG%
- UM – weakness – defense – Ranks 14th in ACC play in opponent’s allowed FG%
- UM – strength – rebounding – Ranks 4th in ACC play in team rebounds, 2nd in rebounds allowed, 10th offensive rebounds, 4th in defensive rebounds
- UM – weakness – 3PT shooting – Last in ACC play in 3PT made per game, 16th in team 3PT%, 15th in opponent’s 3PT%
Prediction:
After the embarrassing loss at Louisville the team should be ready to rally, and after the embarrassing letter from the Student Wolfpack Club Board to the students the student section should also be ready to rally. Reverse those ballcaps! Everybody rally! Wolfpack wins 80-69.
