Before last season, Mizzou needed to erase the dread from the 2023-24 season.
The mission was mostly accomplished. The Tigers got back to the NCAA Tournament, but they lost a frustrating game to Drake.
Entering this season, the Big Dance appears to be a reasonable expectation.
Whether Mizzou gets there or not depends on a few factors. Here are some of MU’s most important storylines to follow as it aims for another appearance in the NCAA Tournament.
Honey, we grew the kids!
What Mizzou has never had under Gates (or any coach) is the type of size and length on this year’s roster. Seven players are listed at 6-foot-9, the most in school history according to the team’s website and Sports Reference.
Several of them should have immediate impacts. Mark Mitchell is back for his final season of college basketball. Shawn Phillips II is a major vertical threat on both ends of the floor, while Jevon Porter is a versatile defender. He and Luke Northweather can stretch out defenses on offense, and simply seeing Trent Burns on the court will be progress from last season.
On a more niche note, the infusion of size down low increases the potential for a new avenue of offense. Players talked at media day about how blocked shots were frequent at practices — perhaps Mizzou could turn blocked shots into fastbreaks more than in recent seasons. Under Gates, the Tigers have mostly generated man advantages off missed shots and inbounds passes.
Maintaining an identity
While the personnel is different than last season, Mizzou’s play style will likely stay the same.
Last season, the Tigers were No. 2 in the country in free-throw rate according to BartTorvik, trailing only Winthrop. Mitchell and Anthony Robinson II, MU’s two best players at getting to the charity stripe last season, are back. UCLA transfer Sebastian Mack also had a solid free-throw rate last season. In its scrimmage against Kansas State, Mizzou shot 34 free throws, making 26 of them. Annor Boateng and Jayden Stone combined to go 12-of-13.
The scrimmage also saw the Tigers fire away from long range, which has been the case under Gates since he got to Mizzou. But a question mark lies in efficiency: not only did the Tigers shoot just 6-of-22 from beyond the arc against the Wildcats, but many of their returners aren’t historically efficient 3-point shooters. Robinson II was the only member of this year’s roster to shoot above 34% from downtown in 2024-25. Some of MU’s most efficient 3-point shooters from last season (Caleb Grill, Tamar Bates and Marques Warrick) are gone.
Mizzou shot 36.7% from 3-point range last season, but repeating that number will require an uptick in efficiency from several players.
What can Mizzou get out of its sophomores (and redshirt freshman)?
Last season, Robinson II made a massive leap from his freshman campaign.
This time around, can at least one of T.O. Barrett, Annor Boateng and Trent Burns make a similar jump? Barrett was the most impactful out of the three last season, with his best performance coming in an electric victory over Florida in Gainesville. Gates tabbed him as someone who could follow a similar path as Robinson II.
Boateng looked much-improved in MU’s scrimmage against Kansas State, scoring 15 points in 23 minutes, the latter of which tied with Robinson II for a team-high. Burns is still recovering from a stress fracture in his foot, which will keep him out for the beginning of the season.
The SEC gauntlet (again)
It’ll be tough to top the collective dominance of the SEC last season, which sent an NCAA Tournament record 14 teams to the Big Dance.
This year’s crop might not be as dominant at the top: Auburn lost its entire starting lineup along with its head coach, while reigning national champion Florida is replacing its starting backcourt. Alabama, Arkansas and Tennessee figure to maintain excellence, but they’re replacing a lot of last year’s production as well.
Mizzou opens with Florida at home, which is followed by a road tilt with Kentucky (yikes!). But four of MU’s next five games are against Ole Miss, LSU, Georgia and Oklahoma, which are all projected to finish towards the bottom of the SEC. The Tigers take road trips to Alabama and Arkansas, but they also get the Razorbacks and Tennessee at home.
Projecting the strength of an SEC schedule in November is difficult, but Mizzou will likely have its work cut out for it come January.
Can Mizzou finally break into the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament?
In Gates’ first three seasons at Mizzou, the Tigers have accomplished quite a bit. Exciting basketball, big-time wins and a pair of NCAA Tournament appearances have been the brightest highlights since Nov. 2022.
But Mizzou’s two appearances in the Big Dance have flamed out earlier than many expected. Two years ago, MU was an unwanted part of Princeton’s Cinderella story. Last season, the Tigers were one of just five teams to lose to a double-digit seed, falling to Drake in the Round of 64. Mizzou still hasn’t advanced to the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament since 2009.
Right now, the Tigers are widely projected to make the NCAA Tournament. There’s a No. 8 seed according to ESPN’s Joe Lunardi and a No. 9 seed according to Sports Illustrated’s Kevin Sweeney. No Mizzou coach has made the Big Dance in three of their first four years since Quin Snyder made four straight from 2000-03.
