Michigan is a load for anyone, and it will be for Duke Saturday. Yet that team has lost one game and been challenged in several others, including an overtime win over Wake Forest back in November.
They also had tight games against Nebraska (75-72 win), Penn State (74-72 win), and Wisconsin (91-88 loss).
What happened in those games?
Well, in the Wake Forest and to a lesser extent Penn State games, a big part of the problem for Michigan was turnovers.
Against Wake, a team with very little size to counter
the Wolverines inside, the Demon Deacons forced 17 turnovers. Michigan also shot just 4-25 from outside. UNC transfer Elliot Cadeau had 5 turnovers in this game, incidentally.
Nebraska forced 19 turnovers, including 8 by Cadeau. And in that game, Michigan shot just 6-26 from the bonusphere (23%).
Penn State forced fewer turnovers, just 12, and allowed Michigan to shoot 8-27 from behind the line (30%). And finally, Wisconsin fit a different pattern: Michigan had just 9 turnovers and hit 8-25 on their threes (32%).
Well, one more to look at: Northwestern dominated Michigan for a good bit of that game. The Wolverines came back, but Northwestern forced 12 turnovers and Michigan shot 8-29 from deep (28%).
Interestingly, Nebraska, Wake Forest, Northwestern and, to a lesser extent Penn State, are probably not capable of competing with Michigan’s imposing front line. Certainly Nebraska is a much smaller team, as is Wake Forest.
Cadeau has done really well since leaving UNC and Michigan would not be where it is without Cadeau.
However, he is still small at 6-1 and while he has several games with 0 turnovers, since playing against Nebraska on January 27th, where he had 8, he had 5 against Northwestern and 4 against Purdue.
Backcourt mate Nimari Burnett has had fewer and in fact has never had more than 2 in one game.
Morez Johnson? He’s been pretty good about turnovers too.
What about the bigs, Yaxel Lendeborg and Aday Mara?
They’ve both had issues. Lendeborg had 4 against Ohio State, 3 in the rematch and 3 against Purdue. Mara had 4 against Northwestern and Ohio State and 3 against Auburn, McNeese State and Nebraska.
What do we gather from all of this?
Well, it’s not that Michigan’s big men are overrated. They’re good. Mara is 7-3 and 255 with a 7-7 wingspan, and he has Euro instincts. He’s an excellent passer, even if he does take risks, and he knows how to draw fouls, which could be a major problem for Duke.
He’s not an immensely talented athlete, but he’s projected as a rotational player in the NBA. He doesn’t have the greatest motor in the game, though that’s getting better. One way to attack him: make him run as much as possible.
As for Lendeborg, he is 6-9 with a 7-4 wingspan and he’s been a late bloomer. In June, when he’ll be drafted, he’ll be 23 and 7 months, which is a big change by modern standards (NBA teams prefer younger players). Like Mara, he’s an excellent passer and he can play all over the court. He’s a good but not great shooter and his shooting goes down a good bit when he’s pressured. He’s like Cameron Boozer in that he’s not necessarily an elite athlete, but basketball is about efficiency and intelligence as much as it is about elite athleticism, a lesson that has been proven over and over by guys like Magic Johnson, Larry Bird, Draymond Green and most recently, Kon Knueppel. He’s a smart, heady player and guys like that figure things out.
So…what to make of all of this?
Well, obviously if you can turn them over that’s a good thing. Wake Forest has struggled all season without a meaningful inside presence, but their perimeter is terrific and they took Michigan to overtime.
Duke averages 8.2 steals and forces just under 13 turnovers. We’ve seen Dame Sarr, Cameron Boozer and Maliq Brown, among others, get plenty of steals. Get out in transition and size becomes a disadvantage, as Wake Forest demonstrated.
One more thing to keep in mind: Michigan averages 90.6 points per game and gives up 68.8 per game. Duke averages 83 points per game while allowing 63.2. Something’s gotta give.
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