When the 2025 college football season kicks off next week, the Michigan Wolverines will feel like they have a great shot at making the College Football Playoff for the fourth time in five seasons. Ranked 14th in the preseason AP Poll, this would not be a shock to anyone nationally, and indeed, many are expecting the Wolverines to do enough to make the now-expanded 12-team field.
Still, to actually make the playoff, Michigan needs to go at least 9-3; even a 10-2 record does not guarantee a postseason
berth. Therefore, unless the Wolverines are essentially flawless (as was the requirement in the four-team playoff era), they will need some help from other teams across the nation. Fortunately, that idea is not too far-fetched. Here are three things that could really help Michigan’s CFP chances this year.
The ACC and Big XII cannibalize themselves again
Think back to last fall. The ACC had just three teams in contention for the playoff: Miami, Clemson, and SMU. When the Hurricanes were upset by Syracuse late in the regular season, the conference was an SMU conference championship away from getting just one team into the field. Meanwhile, the Big XII was never going to get more than one team in, with every team carrying at least two losses into the final rankings without many marquee wins.
Should this year be any different? While Clemson (4th), Miami (10th), and Arizona State (11th) start with plenty of support, the rest of both conferences have a bunch of question marks. Surely someone like last season’s ASU will pop up, but there are not many teams that jump off the page as clear giants that seemed destined for a great season.
If Michigan does have a couple losses, it will almost surely get the nod over just about any ACC or Big XII team with an identical record. Therefore, fans should root for chaos in both leagues, especially in the Big XII, which seems likely to send just one team to the playoff again. Of course, a brand like Clemson and Miami will grab eyeballs all season, so one or both of those schools slipping would really help as well.
Making SOS an actual strength
The good news about Michigan’s schedule is that most games feel anywhere from gimmes to winnable. Though that should definitely help the Wolverines get to the necessary 11-1 record to control their own fate, it does reduce the margin for error should there be very few notable wins. Though that is not really the team’s fault, the reality is that who teams beat is often used as one of the key CFP tiebreakers.
Fortunately, there are quite a few candidates to surprise the country this year that could help Michigan (assuming it wins the corresponding head-to-head). The obvious one is Oklahoma, a talented team that faces a gauntlet of a schedule. Should the Sooners put up a fight in the SEC over the course of the season, a road win over them would really bolster the Wolverines resume.
In conference, Michigan should hope at least one or two of Nebraska, Wisconsin, USC, or Washington to beat preseason expectations and go on a run. These schools all sit in the top of 40 of SP+ right now and could definitely go from unranked to top-25 programs by the end of the year. A couple of these teams breaking into the rankings would really help a 10-2 Michigan become a CFP lock.
Stick to basketball
While some of the four aforementioned Big Ten teams overperforming would be a big help (assuming Michigan wins those games), the fall of college football darlings Indiana and Illinois would be just as welcomed. For one, both fanbases are becoming super annoying lol, but on a more logical level, there is more harm than good if these teams have strong 2025s.
A rising Big Ten tide could benefit the Wolverines, but since they do not face Indiana or Illinois this year, it would only come in the form of public perception and not via metrics like strength of schedule. It is very possible that the CFP Committee is forced to consider Michigan directly against one or both of these schools to determine who makes the playoff, and that could get messy.
Illinois is a popular pick to be this season’s Indiana, which basically means it is a good team with a really easy schedule. The only legitimate teams the Illini face are Indiana and Ohio State, while the Hoosiers get Oregon and Penn State in addition to Illinois. Both teams could realistically go 10-2, which might result in a tricky debate with Michigan at the end of the year. Root for one or both to underperform this season — I assume most of you will be more than happy to do so.
