Welcome to our Lakers Season Preview Series! For the next several weeks, we’ll be writing columns every weekday, breaking down the biggest questions we have about every player the Lakers added this offseason. Today, we look at Dalton Knecht.
Dalton Knecht came to the Lakers as an older rookie whose college production and profile as a shooter and shot maker was supposed to translate into immediate production in the league. And, for some strong stretches of his first year as a professional, he proved
those predictions correct while being labeled as one of the steals of the draft for a Lakers team that looked poised to capitalize on the best aspects of his game.
Shortly after making the Luka Dončić trade, however, things took a dramatic turn for Knecht’s Lakers tenure when he was traded away to the Hornets in exchange for Mark Williams, and then forced to return to Los Angeles when that trade was rescinded due to Williams failing his physical.
Within the awkwardness of this situation, Knecht’s playing time and role diminished as the seriousness of games ramped up, not necessarily due to him playing particularly poorly, but as more defensive reliability was sought out by JJ Redick. By the end of the regular season and into the playoffs, Knecht’s role was almost entirely cannibalized by Jordan Goodwin. In eight of the final 12 games of the regular season, Dalton played single-digit minutes and appeared in just two of the team’s five playoff games, tallying four total minutes.
Heading into his sophomore campaign, then, there seem to be more questions than answers about Knecht and how he fits onto this roster — something a mostly down Summer League only further throws into limbo, to say nothing of the additions of Marcus Smart and Jake LaRavia.
What is his best-case scenario?
Despite his very real offensive talent and an ability to get hot in ways that can truly change a game, the positional numbers crunch Knecht finds himself in (along with his defensive challenges) lowers his rotation viability and, with that, impacts what his best-case scenario even looks like.
Said more directly: Knecht finds himself in direct competition with Smart, LaRavia, Jarred Vanderbilt, and Rui Hachimura for minutes on the wing and all four of those guys have clearer paths to real minutes.
So, if Knecht is currently on the fringes of the rotation or even on the outside looking in, the best-case scenario for him involves leapfrogging more established veterans or catching a break with someone missing time where he’s able to find consistent minutes, find a rhythm and show off how he can still contribute to make an impact.
If he does end up seeing the floor, Knecht would then need to turn that opportunity into real production — something he is more than capable of. Remember, Knecht’s minutes would come almost exclusively in lineups alongside at least one of Luka and LeBron, two of the best shot creators in the league, and very likely another very good perimeter creator in Austin Reaves. He would also be playing in an offense where, due to those players drawing an incredible amount of defensive attention, satellite players will receive a bounty of open looks that he is more than capable of knocking down.
Under these circumstances, it’s not hard to imagine Knecht knocking down shots in the halfcourt while also leveraging his athleticism in transition to either fill the lane for finishes at the rim or running deep corner for more open threes. These are the sorts of looks that drove Knecht’s production as a rookie and it is not hard to envision him finding even more success in this sort of role with more comfort and a full season of playing next to Luka to go along with his already gained comfort of playing with LeBron and Austin.
If these things fall into place for him, Dalton could thrive as a bench player, providing shooting and athleticism on the wing, greasing the wheels of an offense that will need floor spacing to reach its peak as a top offense. We’ve seen this from him before, of course, but with a year under his belt, an improved version of this same player could be a difference maker even in a smaller role.
What is his worst-case scenario?
If the above sounds too rosy for you, I don’t blame you.
While it’s easy to believe in Dalton’s talent or even write off some of his Summer League struggles as the product of him not having enough shot creation around him, the reality of his current situation and how the Lakers perimeter rotation is set up creates the very real possibility his playing time will be deemphasized in favor of his more veteran teammates.
And, if that happens, a scenario in which Dalton not only doesn’t play very often, but when he does play, the lack of a rhythm or the pressure of needing to perform leads him to struggle more than his talent says he should is a very real possibility. This is the exact sort of situation where players like Knecht can look much worse than they actually are by missing some of the open looks they do get, pressing for shots that may not be there and generally looking like a player seeking out the action rather than letting the game come to them.
Add this to playing on a team that already traded you once and where your role was cut down to nearly nothing by the end of what looked at time like a very promising rookie campaign, and it’s easy to second-guess, lose confidence or end up pressing even more if your number is eventually called again. This is the sort of spiral that is both understanding, considering all of the variables, but also condemning at the same time.
It is not as though shooters of the highest quality never struggle, but one through line of the very best marksmen is their universal belief in their ability and the confidence that they’ll break through eventually.
Dalton showed some of that as a rookie and there were times where he broke out for extended stretches after a couple of prolonged slumps. But if he finds himself in this situation again where his confidence is dented or he slumps for too long, he may not get the same chances he did last year to get back into the mix because this team is deeper and more experienced on the wing than they were last year.
And when you remember that this team has already traded him once and his name continues to appear in rumors, it’s not difficult to envision Dalton never fully gaining back the footing he had early last season and potentially falling out of favor entirely as the team looks to its veterans to
What is his most likely role on the team?
Dalton is still young enough and has enough promise — particularly on offense — to be given the chance to compete for a real role on this team. But, if really forecasting what is his likeliest path this year, it’s as the next man up in a wing rotation that already has almost all its minutes accounted for when fully healthy.
The Lakers signed LaRavia on the first day of free agency, with reports stating he was their top priority and even used a part of their full non-taxpayer MLE to ensure they got the deal done. LaRavia projects as a wing spot-up shooter who has enough athleticism to play in transition and is a much more seasoned and polished defender than Dalton already.
With Smart also signed to take up minutes at guard next to both Austin and Luka, Rui still in the mix to absorb minutes at both forward spots, and Vando lurking as a defensive specialist who can defend up or down, it’s hard to see where Dalton finds consistent minutes this season.
This, then, likely slots Dalton in as the 10th or 11th man in the rotation, potentially battling Gabe Vincent for perimeter minutes (even though they don’t even play the same position), or trying to push Jaxson Hayes or Maxi Kleber out of the front court for minutes with JJ Redick shifting into small-ball groups. If being honest, neither of those scenarios seem all that likely, which would leave Knecht on the outside looking in and mostly getting minutes on nights when guys sit out or miss time due to injury.
If this feels too pessimistic, I’d argue this is more a numbers game on a team with better depth than last season and with more serious aspirations to compete for a title, shifting the team’s goals from development of a wing who is still not there defensively and, while potentially explosive, still a bit up and down on offense to setting up their habits in the regular season to be able to make a postseason run.
Does this mean that Dalton won’t or shouldn’t play? Of course not. And I’m almost certain he’ll get his chances during the season. But, as it stands now, Knecht is caught up in a bit of a numbers game and the only way that gets solved is through injury or trade.
And if it’s the latter, there’s no guarantee Dalton wouldn’t be included as an outgoing piece. It wouldn’t be the first time…
You can follow Darius on BlueSky at @forumbluegold and find more of his Lakers coverage on the Laker Film Room Podcast.
