A week before Christmas, St. Louis and Dustin May agreed on a 1 year bounce back opportunity for the once highly touted right-hander. After a myriad of injuries that plagued his early 20’s and a freak esophageal tear that nearly cost May his life, he appears to be unlocking his big talent in the gateway to the west. The Cardinals entered 2026 hoping for health and consistency from May in the middle of their rotation, and after his first 2 starts, it looked like a potential flop.
Since April 10th,
Dustin May has a 2.54 ERA and a 2.68 FIP across 74.1 IP. Striking out 23.5% of batters, limiting hitters to a .206 BAA, and a 0.98 WHIP. Over that time, May ranks 9th in ERA, 7th in FIP, 26th in K%, 14th in BAA, and 9th in WHIP. Really, really impressive stuff over that time.
The swing and miss in May’s profile is still improving, and some of the quality of contact numbers are still a little inflated from his truly disastrous first couple of starts of the season. The other element to note for Dustin May is that he has raised his arm angle 12 degrees from last year!
So, with this success, the Cardinals now find themselves in one of those good problems. What do they do? They can make the obvious decision to trade him and recoup assets that will help continue the rebuild, they can try to agree to an extension before the deadline and keep the good times rolling as he nears 30 years old, or they can ride it out through the season, and when he inevitably declines the mutual option, the Cardinals can provide a qualifying offer likely in the 23-24 million dollar range.
Consider this, since the April 10th marker, these are some of the other names expected to be available at this year’s trade deadline (minus Skubal, who will obviously be the top trade chip). I find FIP to be a more enlightening stat to help guide these types of conversations because you can say, “This is what player X does in a neutral environment.” Dustin May might be the 2nd most valuable rental arm available at the deadline, and when contenders are desperate for pitching reinforcements at the deadline, that will greatly improve the Cardinals’ chances at a really good return.
The next option could be to extend the big right-hander. The Cardinals might be tempted to offer a Sonny Gray-type deal for Dustin May at 3 yrs 75 million. That would minimize the long-term risk for the Cardinals and allow May to stay somewhere he’s healthy, happy, and contributing. I would be skeptical that May would settle for such a deal if his representation convinces him he could get over 100 million on the open market, assuming he maintains health and production through the conclusion of the season. The other element to consider here, is that if May IS traded midseason then he is not eligible for a qualifying offer and to be a high octane starting pitcher under the age of 30 with no draft pick compensation attached to him, he might be one of the top 2nd tier pitchers on the market this offseason outside of Skubal and that would land him a really nice payday and some fierce leage wide competetion for his services. He may look at all of those elements as a business decision and whats best for his family, and you can’t argue against that, and testing the open market.
Speaking of the qualifying offer, if the Cardinals can maintain their foothold in the WC standings come August 3rd, it wouldnt be out of the question for St. Louis to hold May and try to make a run with him at the top of the rotation, leading the way. Now, before you scoff at the notion of simply offering him a QO at season’s end. Consider these names to have been drafted using the comp pick over the last 8 years.
2025
Patrick Forbes (AZ) 50 FV
Caden Bodine (BAL) 50 FV
Wehiwa Aloy (BAL) 55 FV
Brady Ebel (MIL) 50 FV
2024
Kyle DeBarge (MIN) 50 FV
2023
none
2022
Sterlin Thompson (COL) 40 FV
Sal Stewart (CIN) 50 FV
2021
Jay Allen II (CIN) 50 FV
2020
none
2019
Brennan Malone (AZ) 55 FV
Drey Jameson (AZ) 50 FV
2018
Shane McClanahan (TB) 55 FV
Nick Schnell (TB) 50 FV
Jackson Kowar (KC) 55 FV
Daniel Lynch IV (KC) 50 FV
Ethan Hankins (CLE) 50 FV
The Cardinals would have the ability to draft a really high upside player still in the range of the recouped comp pick. It’s easy to blow off the idea of a comp pick when it’s framed as “a random draft pick.” It might change a few tunes when you start seeing the names McClanahan and Stewart. Those being the best case scenerios, sure. But, simply having the opportunity to bring in another 1st round quality prospect in whats expected to be a really strong draft in 2027 isn’t insignificant. If the Cardinals were to trade May, acquiring teams would have to at minimum surpass the value of a comp pick player. The Cardinals would also give themselves at least a fighting chance for a playoff spot when most of us assumed this was a 75-win team at best coming into the season, and still recoup assets as they try to capitalize on a surprise playoff bid.
Ultimately, Chaim Bloom is going to have a very difficult decision on his hands as to what he should do with a valuable asset like May by August 3rd, and the decision between now and then might fluctuate 7 or 8 different times as the ebbs and flows of a season remain a continuously fluid day-to-day evaluation.
(stats and graphs courtesy of Baseball Savant and Fangraphs, and FV values from MLB Pipeline)
-Thanks for reading
