Spring training is the time to hear about who is in the best shape of their life, which teams might be cursed with injuries (not a great start for the Braves), and potential adjustments players make.
While the narrative is that the Phillies are “running it back” and that everything will remain static year to year, it is important to point out that players and teams make adjustments. In 2025, Trea Turner became a much better defensive shortstop, Brandon Marsh cut his strikeout rate by more than six
percent, and Jesús Luzardo started throwing a sweeper.
Here is an attempt to predict what adjustments we see from Phillies players in 2026 and why they’re making them.
Bryce Harper’s First Pitch Swing% drops to 40%
Since his second MVP season in 2021, Bryce Harper has become more and more aggressive early in counts because of how pitchers were pitching him. Harper’s best chance at getting a fastball came early in counts and he was seeing less and less of them as time went on.
In 2021, Harper saw four-seam fastballs 36.2% of the time, that number dropped to 32.6 the following season as pitchers made adjustments.
So he made his counter adjustments by being more aggressive early in counts. After swinging at the first pitch 40.2% of the time in 2021, here are his first pitch swing rates the next four seasons:
2022: 50.4%
2023: 47.5%
2024: 47.4%
2025: 54.1%
This all led to more chase outside of the strike zone and fewer fastballs over time. Harper only saw four-seam fastballs 28.4% of the time in 2025, the lowest since Baseballsavant has tracked back in 2017. It was probably the first time in Harper’s professional career he saw four-seam fastballs less than 30% of the time.
The goal for 2026 is to get pitchers to throw more of them. Maybe moving Harper to the two-hole or Schwarber down to the cleanup position might help but if Harper is keeping a similar approach, it might not make much of a difference.
Instead, Harper will course-correct all the way back and become way more patient at the plate early in counts as pitchers have adjusted. With a first-pitch swing rate of roughly 40%, he will also have his lowest chase rate since 2021, and get into more favorable counts. Eventually, pitchers will have to come in the zone, throw him slightly more fastballs, and Bryce Harper will magically put him elite numbers again because there is nothing to show he’s physically declining as a player.
Brad Keller’s go-to secondary pitch will not be his slider
Since Brad Keller entered the majors in 2018, his primary non-fastball pitch was his hard-slider but that will change in 2026 under the Phillies major league pitching department. Keller has already talked about some of the new ideas the Phillies might be bringing to the table with his arsenal.
Keller’s 2025 changed the entire trajectory of his career. He went from a starter that sat roughly 93-95 and mostly three pitches to a hard throwing reliever with 4 or 5 pitches he can use to anyone.
I wrote about some of the tweaks the Phillies could make but there was nothing definitive about how he will attack hitters in 2026.
What I am predicting is that he will throw more sweepers to right handed hitters and more changeups to lefties and what pitch will he throw less of in 2026? His traditional slider.
For the first time in Brad Keller’s major league career, and probably his entire life, his go-to secondary pitch won’t be the hard-slider.
Adolis García’s opposite-field flyball rate will be at least 25%
The Phillies signed Adolis García and hope to get his swing to stay in the strike zone more consistently in 2026. He had a chase rate of 35.8% and 31.1% of the fastballs he saw were outside of the strike zone.
The best place to start with making slight approach changes is to stay back on fastballs and use the opposite field. With Garcia’s plus raw power, going the other way could help his overall numbers if he is making more contact.
Another reason he could be using the entire field is because of physical decline he is facing as an aging player. García turns 33 in March and has carried league average bat speed the past two seasons, a decline over what it was back in 2023. It could get even worse as he ages.
Part of using the entire field could be by design to stay within the strike zone slightly more often but also could be aging-related if he is not able to catch up to velocity and spin like he used to.
García is a strange bet for the Phillies to make in general. He’s 33, has shown some signs as an aging athlete already but could be inclined for bigger issues in 2026. He is considered a power hitter but has a sub .400 slugging over the past two seasons. He is a good defensive right fielder, a massive upgrade over Nick Castellanos, but his range could slip with natural physical decline.
