Three of the four teams in action on Thursday night— the Atlanta Dream, Golden State Valkyries and Minnesota Lynx—all began their Commissioner’s Cup quests with a win.
The fourth team, the defending Cup champion Indiana Fever, desperately hope to do the same.
It’s been a long week for Indy, plunged into ever-deeper waves of scrutiny following a 0-2 West Coast road trip where the failings of the Fever defense, in particular, inspired tons of analysis, overreactions and obsession.
When they host Atlanta on Thursday night, how Indiana improves on that end of the floor will be THE point of focus (7 p.m. ET, Prime Video).
Will there be rotational adjustments from head coach Stephanie White? Can the Fever staff devise different schemes that better compensate for Caitlin Clark’s defensive weakness, while not nullifying the defensive strengths of other players? Does Clark demonstrate a renewed commitment to that end of the floor that inspires the whole unit? (Clark, it should be noted, is again listed on the injury report, designated as “probable” due to the back soreness that sidelined her for the Fever’s last home game.)
Yet, the answers to those questions and others might not be the best solution for the Fever’s defense. Instead, it’s simpler: Just score more.
Scoring doesn’t just put points on the board, but a successful offensive outcome allows Indiana to set their defense.
In their last game, the Fever scored a season-low 84 points against the Portland Fire, with the absence of offensive success exacerbating their defensive disorganization. If the highest-scoring offense in the WNBA gets things humming on their stronger side of the ball, they’ll more consistently put themselves in position to mitigate their issues on their weaker end. Forcing their opponent to take the ball out of the basket gives the Fever personnel more time to communicate, correctly mark up and establish needed defensive connection.
While different rotations, adjusted schemes and more attentiveness from Clark and her teammates are important, tapping into a positive feedback loop, where good offense sets the conditions for better defense, is the pre-requisite.
Of course, that’s easier said than done, especially against the Dream.
Atlanta’s offense is still a work in progress, but their defense has been instantly elite. The second-best defense in the W, the Dream have embraced a defensive identity. Although they are benefiting from poor 3-point shooting by opponents, the Dream are succeeding by not giving opponents easy points at the foul line, with opponents shooting a league-low 16.4 free throws per game.
Atlanta complements that defensive discipline with defensive playmaking, highlighted by their 8.6 steals per game. Rhyne Howard, who likely will spend time on Clark, has been a steals menace in the early going. She’s averaging a league-leading 2.7 per game, with Jordin Canada coming in second at 2.4 per contest.
The Dream, in short, are going to make it difficult for the Fever to use their offense to fortify their defense.
So, which team will have the edge in this strength-on-strength showdown between teams of contrasting styles?
Can Atlanta lock down in Indiana in a manner that turns up the turbulence? Back at home, will the Fever find their flow and look more like themselves? Will Indiana, in fact, introduce a new, improved defensive approach? Or, will Eastern Conference Player of the Month Allisha Gray go off anyways, rendering any and all defense irrelevant?
Let us know how you think everything will play out in Indianapolis on Thursday night.
Then, share your predictions for what could be an even better game, when the league-best Lynx welcome the Valkyries to Minnesota (9 p.m. ET, Prime Video).
