There were only 12 hitters in all of Major League Baseball in 2025 who logged over 650 PA and sported an on-base percentage over .360. Cincinnati Reds centerfielder TJ Friedl was one of them, and he was joined by a cast of characters who you may recognize – Aaron Judge, Juan Soto, Shohei Ohtani, Geraldo Perdomo, Vlad Guerrero, Jr., Rafel Devers, Fernando Tatis, Jr., Matt Olson, Yandy Diaz, Kyle Schwarber, and Jose Ramirez.
It’s a testament both to Friedl’s durability last season and to his ability to consistently
find his way to first base, something bolstered by his 11.8% walk rate. Even at age 30 and with a manager in Terry Francona who’s not asking him to swipe bags the way he once did, it’s almost impossible to imagine there being a better, more classic prototype on the Reds roster for the team’s leadoff man, and it sure seems that Francona is married to that idea heading into the 2026 season, too.
So, the lineup begins with TJ. After that, though, there’s a lot of moving and shaking that could go on, especially on days when the club faces off against a lefty.
What we do also know is that Francona seems wed to the idea of keeping Elly De La Cruz in the #3 spot in the lineup rather than moving him up to hit right behind Friedl. Francona has also spoken repeatedly about how prodigal son Eugenio Suárez brings both thump to the middle of the order and ‘protection’ for Elly from pitchers who might otherwise try to pitch around him, and that leads to a pretty easy assumption that Geno will be the team’s cleanup hitter.
1, 3, and 4 seem to be pretty well etched in stone, at least for the start of the season. Where the rest of the dominos fall, though, seems very much up in the air.
It’s impossible to think at this juncture that Sal Stewart should be hitting anywhere other than as high in the lineup as he can be slotted. If 1, 3, and 4 are set on most days, that would sure suggest he’s ripe for the #2 spot in between TJ and Elly, one of the rare bats who’s both patient enough at the plate to work a count (and let a leadoff guy run, if need be) but who can also plate everyone with one mighty swing. If it were up to me, the Reds regular batting order would begin with Friedl, Sal, Elly, and Geno, and that would be borderline non-negotiable.
Early in spring camp, though, it sure seems like Francona is leaning towards keeping Matt McLain in the #2 spot, however. Perhaps that’s just a manager doing his best to boost the confidence of one of his most talented, albeit most injured regulars, as McLain hit just .220/.300/.343 overall last year (and an even more putrid .215/.306/.304 in 298 PA hitting in the #2 spot last year). For the record, Cincinnati’s collective production from the #2 spot in the order in 2025 produced just a 68 wRC+ and .273 wOBA, both of which ranked 2nd to last overall.
The middle and back-half of the Reds regular batting order seems deeper on paper than it’s been in quite some time, though it’s a malleable mash of hitters who, in any given one-month stretch, could be better or worse than every player on the team. We’ve seen the streakiness first hand from the likes of Spencer Steer, Tyler Stephenson, Noelvi Marte, and Will Benson, and the back of JJ Bleday’s baseball card sure suggests he’s pretty much in the same boat. Regardless of the handedness of the pitcher on the mound on any given day, it’s more likely than not that that core ends up occupying spots 5-8 on most days, with the lone exception being when Dane Myers is in outfield on days a left-hander is starting against them. Unless, that is, Nate Lowe rakes through Cactus League play and cements himself as a key part of this offense despite coming into camp on an unheralded minor league deal.
Ke’Bryan Hayes, whom I really hope rarely gets more than 2 PA per game, is going to hit 9th. At least, I sure as hell hope that’s how this works.
If it were purely up to me, which it is not, here’s how I’d roll out the lineup against a RHP:
- TJ Friedl – CF
- Sal Stewart – 1B
- Elly De La Cruz – SS
- Eugenio Suárez – 3B
- Nate Lowe – DH
- Spencer Steer/Will Benson/JJ Bleday – LF
- Tyler Stephenson – C
- Noelvi Marte – RF
- Matt McLain – 2B
The Hayes trade still baffles me, but at least he’d be around for the late innings defensively.
On days when a LHP is on the bump, my personal lineup would look more like this:
- Matt McLain – 2B
- Sal Stewart – 1B
- Elly De La Cruz – SS
- Eugenio Suarez – DH
- Spencer Steer – LF
- Tyler Stephenson – C
- Dane Myers – CF
- Noelvi Marte – RF
- Ke’Bryan Hayes – 3B
How would you build a regular Reds lineup, and how would you tweak it when facing a southpaw? How would you build both through the lens of Terry Francona’s spectacles, since that’s the realistic way we must look at the situation?
