Most people know the Winter Meetings as a space for executives (and occasionally players) to discuss potential trades and free agent signings. While that’s the main purpose of the Meetings, it’s not the only
thing that’s happening down in sunny Orlando, Florida this week. Major League Baseball will be announcing the results of this year’s Draft Lottery at 4:30 p.m. CT. Results will also be posted at the bottom of this article, so check back tonight!
How does the Draft Lottery work?
For those of you who need a refresher, here’s how the lottery has worked since it was implemented prior to the 2023 Draft as part of the current collective bargaining agreement (CBA):
The 18 teams that failed to make the postseason last year all have a chance at the No. 1 overall pick in 2026. The lottery team with the worst record (the White Sox) has the best odds (27.73%), and the team with the best record (the Astros) has the worst odds.
Now, you might be saying, “but what about the Rockies? Weren’t they the worst team in the league last year?” Yes, they were. Unfortunately for the Rockies, the current CBA states that teams cannot pick in the lottery for more than two consecutive years. Since Colorado picked No. 3 overall in 2024 and No. 4 overall in 2025, the earliest they can pick this year is No. 10 overall. Additionally, neither the Angels nor the Nationals can pick earlier than 10th because both teams pay into the league’s revenue sharing agreement and held lottery picks last year.
Who’s going #1 overall?
Since I’m BCB’s minor league guy, I figured I’d provide a quick rundown of the top prospects in the 2026 draft. This is baseball, so things can (and will) change before the draft rolls around, but this year is looking deeper than previous years, and as things stand now, the teams slated to pick in the top six-ish have a lot to be excited about.
The Favorite:
Roch Cholowsky, SS, University of California Los Angeles
Cholowsky, the son of former minor leaguer and scout Dan Cholowsky, was the highest-ranked player not selected in the 2023 draft — presumably because no team wanted to risk the draft capital it would have taken to sign him away from his commitment to UCLA. Last season, Cholowsky put up a *checks notes* 1.190 OPS with 23 home runs. As per MLB Pipeline, a number of scouts consider him the best shortstop prospect since Troy Tulowitzki back in 2005. He’s not super fast, but has literally all the other tools — Pipeline even gave him a (somewhat rare) 65-grade in their updated prospect rankings. While a challenger could emerge during the 2026 season, Cholowsky is currently the clear favorite to go No. 1 overall this summer.
The Contenders:
Justin Lebron, SS, University of Alabama
I’ll never bet against an athlete named Lebron. Alabama’s starting shortstop was the favorite to go No. 1 in next year’s draft before Cholowsky broke out. The one knock on Lebron is his tendency to chase breaking balls out of the zone, although he showed strides by the end of last season. Pipeline did give Lebron four 60-grade tools (arm, power, field, and run), so if he’s able to develop his plate discipline a bit, we might see him give Cholowsky a run for his money.
Grady Emerson, SS, Fort Worth Christian High School (TX)
Per one scout, the “worst thing about Emerson” is that “he’s not Bobby Witt Jr.” I’m not gonna bump him down for not being an MVP candidate as a high schooler, especially because there aren’t really any flaws to Emerson’s game. Emerson is about as developed as a high school shortstop can be — he almost always puts together a quality at-bat, drives every type of pitch to all fields, and generates impressive exit velocities with relative frequency. Many scouts consider him a lock to stick at shortstop because of his strong arm, good hands, and fundamental approach. He might even be a little underrated at shortstop because, as per Pipeline, he makes “difficult plays look routine.”
Lottery Locks:
Jacob Lombard, SS, Gulliver Prep School (FL)
Well, it’s a great draft if you need a shortstop. Lombard, the brother of Yankees prospect George Lombard Jr., occasionally appears to have trouble timing high-velocity fastballs up in the zone. That’s pretty much his only weakness. Lombard projects to be a well-average defender and a threat to steal bases at the big-league level. Pipeline gives him a 60-power grade. He should go a lot higher than his brother did (No. 28 overall).
Drew Burress, OF, Georgia Tech
Burress, the favorite to be the first outfielder selected in 2026, would have been drafted out of high school had he not told teams that he would attend Georgia Tech if not selected in the first round. While Burress is short (listed at 5’9”, but probably shorter), he’s a well-rounded athlete with tools across the board. He’s hit .257/.490/.756 with 44 home runs across two seasons with the Yellow Jackets — if he puts up comparable numbers this year, he might sneak into the top five.
Gio Rojas, LHP, Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School (FL)
Anthony Rizzo, Roman Anthony, and Jesus Luzardo all hail from Stoneman Douglas High School in south Florida. In a few years, that sentence very well might include Gio Rojas. Rojas, probably the top pitcher in the class, has a fastball that tops out at 98 mph and an extremely nasty low-to-mid 80s sweeping slider (Josh Hader-esque), both thrown from a three-quarters arm angle. He doesn’t use his changeup much (duh), but when he has, it’s looked like a potentially effective third pitch.
Carson Bolemon, LHP, Southside Christian High School (SC)
Bolemon literally didn’t allow an earned run in 42-plus innings last year, throwing a 19-strikeout no-hitter in the state championship game. He then served as the ace for a USA team that won the 18-and-under World Cup, striking out 17 in 11 scoreless innings.
Why is he so hard to hit? His fastball, which he can make either rise or fall (??), tops out at 96 mph. As a high schooler. Bolemon also has a 60-grade sweeper and 60-grade 12-6 curveball. LOL. Have fun hitting that. He also might sneak up into the top five if one of the above prospects underperforms during the season.
