It was almost too perfect.
The Mets made an improbable run to the National League Championship Series in 2024. In the offseason, retained their fan-favorite, post-season hero, free-agent first baseman and went out and signed a superstar to the largest contract in baseball history. The Mets saw the promised land but fell short, so they made a big move to get them there in 2025.
The returning first baseman did his part. The superstar did his part and then some. The rest of the team and the front office
didn’t, and the Mets were on the outside of the playoff picture. Because of that, the core of that team was blown up and an unconventional approach to rebuilding the club was undertaken. Hope springs eternal and, with tomorrow being Opening Day, the hope will likely never be more tangible and intoxicating than it is right now.
But where does that leave the superstar?
I know that the ostensible reason for this article is to forecast a little about what Juan Soto might do in 2026, but that seems like a fool’s errand. Soto’s 2025 was one of his three best offensive seasons by bWAR, and yet he achieved those numbers in a different way than he has in the past. For the first time in his career, his on-base percentage was under .400 (.396), but he also stole more than 12 bases for the first time (38!). He hit a career high 43 home runs, but also struck out a career high 137 times.
Soto is a generational hitter and he’s shown that he is able to adjust his game to whatever situation he finds himself in. And so, while some assumptions can be made – a new lineup that will hopefully eliminate some of the streakiness of last year’s club may lead to more RBI opportunities, without Antoan Richardson, some of Soto’s stolen base acumen may diminish – we already know the most important part of Soto’s 2026: he’s Juan Soto.
By season’s end, Soto seemed more at home with the Mets than he did at first, where he was perceived as being a little standoffish. There was still a lot made about how he and Francisco Lindor don’t make each other friendship bracelets, but outside of the true WFAN psychos, most people realize that there’s no ‘there’ there. When teams under-perform, the clubhouse is always toxic. When teams over-perform, the clubhouse is a utopia of acceptance and support. These are the narratives that are being fed by the media year after year.
What will be interesting is to see how Soto fits into a new-look clubhouse. Lindor still has the seniority, the personality, and the desire to be the out front leader for the team. But it wouldn’t be surprising if Soto started to take a little more ownership of the club, especially as he’ll (theoretically) be here for the rest of his career. Not only that, but with Carson Benge, Nolan McLean, and Francisco Alvarez all here for the long haul alongside Lindor and Soto, there is a sense of who the next core is going to be made up of, and Soto is a cornerstone of it.
It would be foolish to thing that Soto is going to be a different person than he’s been in the past, but it wouldn’t be shocking to see him assert himself a little more. What that would look like is maybe the biggest question about Soto going into the season.
The biggest change for 2026 for Soto is the move to left field, which is done both to ease his defensive burden a bit after a rough year in right field and also to help begin the transition down the defensive spectrum which will inevitably lead to the second half (or maybe more) of his contract spent as a designated hitter. If the move to left is successful, this may slow that transition down by a few years, which is something that seems important to Soto more than it does to the club.
What this also does is clear the path for Benge to establish himself in a position that he can hypothetically hold for the foreseeable future. And Soto is no stranger to left field, having played 460 games there over his career. With Citi’s especially difficult right field, this should be a nice change for Soto, even if the impact on the actual team may not be very significant.
Fangraphs has eight projection systems listed for 2026, and all of them are bullish on Soto. By fWAR, Soto had a 5.8 win season in 2025. Only one of the eight (Steamer) projects him lower than that, and that’s just by three tenths of a point. OOPSY is highest at 7.0, and the average at 6.1. If that is the case, Soto has done more than his part to get the Mets in the postseason.
But we already knew that. Barring injury or one of the most sharp declines in modern baseball history, Soto’s 2026 seems predestined to be very, very good. I know that’s a dangerous position to take, but it’s true. Soto belongs in the same conversation as Aaron Judge, Bobby Witt Jr, and a handful of other players for whom excellence is expected.
I’m ending with this because we’re Mets fans, which means that we are naturally skeptical, pessimistic, and tend to walk around like there’s a curse over us.
There’s not. Curses aren’t real. Jinxes aren’t real.
We have one of the best players of the modern era on our team for the foreseeable future. Forget the noise, forget the rumor and innuendo, forget the clickbait perpetuated by beat writers who need to make every day a news day. Juan Soto is a Met. He’s one of us. And he’s awesome.
