The Seattle Seahawks are set to face off against their former offensive coordinator, Klint Kubiak, in the final game before the bye. Mike Macdonald has a perfect record versus rookie quarterbacks, and Week 10 will be Fernando Mendoza’s first regular season start. Can Klint pull off an upset and defeat his former team, or will Mike keep his record versus rookie quarterbacks pristine? Lets see what the numbers say.
Seattle Seahawks
Per FTN’s DVOA, the Seahawks are the fifth ranked team in total DVOA. They are the 19th
ranked offense, the second-ranked defense, and the 15th ranked special teams.
Per Pigskin Lab, the Seahawks were the 24th ranked offense in total EPA and 23rd EPA per play. On defense, they are the fourth-ranked defense in total EPA and EPA per play.
The Seahawks are seventh in point differential with +40 with a margin of victory of 4.4 points. They are averaging 22.4 points per game and allowing opponents 18 PPG.
Las Vegas Raiders
Per DVOA, the Raiders are the 22nd ranked team in total DVOA. They are the 15th ranked offense, the 31st ranked defense, and the fourth ranked special teams.
Per Pigskin Lab, the Raiders were the 15th ranked offense in total EPA and EPA per play. On defense, they are the 32nd ranked defense in total EPA in EPA per play.
The Raiders are 21st in point differential with -30 with a margin of victory of -3.4 points. They are averaging 26.4 points per game and allowing opponents 29.8 PPG.
Calculating the score
I received some questions about why I do so many score predictions. It is to show the different ways you can use the numbers to try to predict the outcome. While the human element exists and that makes truly predicting the score nigh on unpredictable, as the season goes on, and there are more games are played, you can use the numbers to try to predict the score more accurately.
SEA 22.4 +LV OPP 29.8 = 52.2/2= 26.1
LV 26.4 + SEA OPP 18= 44.4/2= 22.2
First Score Prediction: 26 – 22, SEA Win
Seahawks defeat opponents by 4.4 points, so the 26-22 score predictions reflect that. So we will move onto the key scoring players for each team to see how they effect the game. However, it has occurred to me that it is not a truly holistic way to view it, so I will also factor in what the opposing teams allows in PPG to provide a more well rounded view.
Drew Lock averaged two touchdowns per game, with those receiving touchdowns likely being thrown to Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who has nine receiving touchdowns on the season. That starts the score at 12 points.
The Seahawks are also averaging one rushing touchdown per game this season, with Emanuel Wilson and AJ Barner as their rushing touchdown leaders. With Jadarian Price and Zach Charbonnet now having a couple games under their belt after coming back from injured reserve, they could be sneaky picks to be the ones to get the touchdown. That increases the score to 18.
Jason Myers is 88 percent accurate on field goals and 90 percent accurate on extra points, and is averaging two field goals per game. That adds another nine points to the score for a total of 27.
Fernando Mendoza has not started a regular season game yet up to this point, but Klint’s offense has averaged two passing touchdowns per game. Brock Bowers and Tre Tucker have received the bulk of those touchdowns, and will be the likely targets for Mendoza. That starts Vegas’s score off at 12.
The Raiders are also averaging one rushing touchdown per game. With Kirk Cousins now with Minnesota, they have lost their rushing touchdown leader. Ashton Jeanty and Mike Washington Jr both have one rushing touchdown a piece, and either one would most likely be the one to run in the touchdown. That increases the score to 18.
Matt Gay has made 90.5 percent of all field goals and 100 percent of all extra points. He is also averaging two field goals a game. Nine extra points increases the Raiders score to 27.
SEA 27 + LV OPP 29.8= 56.8/2= 28.4
LV 27+ SEA OPP 18= 45/2= 22.5
Second Score Prediction: 28 – 23, SEA Win
Who do you think will win the game? What will the score be? Who will be the key players that will sway the matchup? Comment down below, and as always, Go Hawks!
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