Expectations are a double-edged sword.
Side note: Why would anyone want a single-edged sword? The AI Overlord says double-edged swords offer quick versatility, letting users strike or thrust from multiple angles without worrying about blade orientation, whereas single-edged swords allow for a thicker, rigid spine that strengthens the main cut and supports specialized forging methods. Yes, I copied and pasted that directly from Gemini, who copied and pasted it from somewhere else.
Anyway, the double-edged
sword sounds a lot more valuable.
Reed Sheppard was selected with the third overall pick in the 2024 NBA Draft. Such a high pick comes with the burden of expectation. Yet, nobody should be banking on an All-Star selection for Sheppard heading into his third NBA season:
What should qualify as a successful season for him?
Sheppard’s opportunities may be limited
In 2025-26, the Rockets had an opportunity to make Sheppard their starting point guard. They went with Amen Thompson instead, who’s probably not a point guard.
That’s not exactly a vote of confidence.
Allegedly, Rafael Stone sees him as the American Steve Nash. Ime Udoka seems to see him more as a poor man’s JJ Redick. Sheppard had a 21.0% Usage Percentage, which puts him in conversation with guys like Danisse Jenkins (20.9%) and Dennis Schroder (21.%), and a bunch of definitely-not-point guards.
In 2026-27, Fred VanVleet will return. The Rockets added Marcus Smart, the living embodiment of Ime Udoka backcourt play. So, it’s hard to see Sheppard’s usage – or minutes – skyrocketing.
So, it would be best not to judge Sheppard on his raw production. It’s more sensible to judge his performance in the context of the opportunities he does get.
Sheppard needs to continue to grow
Simply put, we should be looking for growth in efficiency, per-possession output, and defense.
In 2025-26, Sheppard averaged 19.3 points, 4.8 assists, and 2.1 turnovers per 75 possessions. He shot 39.4% from deep on 10.0 attempts per game with a 56.4% True Shooting % (TS%).
The points per 75 were fine. Sheppard’s output doesn’t necessarily need improvement, but his efficiency does, and better efficiency would lead to better production.
It may sound counterintuitive, but he needs to improve on an already strong three-point shooting. The volume was fine, but for Sheppard to approach his potential, he’ll need to be one of the best shooters in the NBA. It would be nice to see that percentage in the low-to-mid 40s on comparable volume.
That would be less important if he were able to improve his efficiency around the rim, but that feels like a taller order for the not-especially-tall guard. By hook or by crook, that TS% needs to be approaching 60.0% next season.
Unless the defense improves! If Sheppard produced the same per-75 line, but he was suddenly a stout point-of-attack defender, we should count that as a successful season. Let’s not count on that, either.
In terms of playmaking, either the volume or efficiency needs to improve. It would be fine for his efficiency to wane if his volume went up. Either Sheppard is slinging six or seven dimes per 75 with three or four turnovers, or he keeps dishing out five assists per night with, say, .5 fewer turnovers per 75.
Ballpark-wise, I’d like to see 20ish points, 7ish assists, and 3ish turnovers per 75, with, let’s say 42% three-point shooting on the same volume. Assuming limited improvement on defense, that would be a good season for Sheppard.
It can be hard to see the endgame with Sheppard. Let’s say he meets my (thoroughly, scientifically deduced) thresholds in the same minutes per game he saw last year. What’s the succession plan? When does Sheppard crack the starting lineup?
I don’t have those answers. Barring regression from VanVleet (and maybe even Smart), Sheppard won’t start in 2026-27. So, we can only judge him on the minutes he played:
Even if fans expected him to play more.
