For the first time in four years, I’m previewing a Detroit Lions game that I know is “meaningless.” It’s been a good run for On Paper and the Lions, but it’s hard to put a ton of effort into this Week 18 preview against the Chicago Bears when the stakes are nearly zero, and the audience for a legit preview is small.
So this will be a super abridged version, where I don’t talk much about the Lions and rather spend some time on the Bears. There will also be no player to watch in each section.
Sorry for
the bummer intro, but to the few of you actually reading this, I imagine you’re probably skipping down to the meat of the analysis anyways.
Lions pass offense (6th in DVOA) vs. Bears pass defense (24th)
For the season, the Lions rank:
- Third in passer rating (107.0)
- Sixth in yards per attempt (7.8)
- Seventh in dropback EPA (.163)
- 10th in dropback success rate (47.9%)
The silver lining to this lost season is that Jared Goff and the passing offense remained quite efficient despite significant downgrades in the running game and offensive line. This was a throwback Matthew Stafford year for Goff: no help from anyone around him, yet still produced top-10 numbers and dragged the Lions to .500 ball.
The Bears pass defense is fascinating, because if you look at any statistic that doesn’t involve their league-leading 22 interceptions, they look terrible. For example, passer rating—which includes interceptions—they rank 16th (91.8). Yards per attempt allowed (interceptions not included), they’re 28th (7.6). EPA (INTs included) they’re 16th. Success rate, they’re 23rd.
All is to say that if you can just avoid throwing the ball to the Chicago Bears, there’s a pretty good chance you’re going to succeed. Outside of one recent examples, the Lions have done a really good job of that.
One thing that also works in Detroit’s favor in this matchup is the Bears’ complete lack of pass rush. You thought the Lions’ pressure was slow to get there? The Bears’ pass rush is even slower, ranking dead last at 2.92 average seconds. They also rank 26th in overall pressure percentage and 21st in sacks.
Advantage: Lions +2. Goff is elite with time and (typically) great at avoiding interceptions, so this seems like a really good matchup for Detroit. My only hesitation is what their offensive line will look like if Penei Sewell can’t go, and that’s where things are trending right now.
Lions run offense (11th) vs. Bears run defense (28th)
Detroit’s run game has finally fallen off now that they aren’t getting the explosive runs that helped carry the unit early in the season. For the year, the Lions now rank:
- 11th in yards per carry (4.6)
- 22nd in rush EPA (-0.075)
- 25th in success rate (39.1%)
DVOA is a lie. I am sad.
Well, the Bears are quite possibly even worse when it comes to this matchup. For the season, they’ve held opponents below 4.4 yards per carry in just four of 16 contests. They’ve allowed over 150 rushing yards seven times, and in some cases, it’s against pretty mediocre rushing attacks. For the year, the Bears run defense ranks:
- 29th in yards per carry (5.0)
- 20th in rush EPA (-0.044)
- 24th in success rate (43.6%)
This will be the Bears’ fatal flaw in the playoffs, but it’s hard to know how it’ll look this week in a weakness vs. weakness matchup.
Advantage: Draw. I want to be confident based on the Week 2 matchup, but the Lions have clearly gotten worse since, and that’s a great example of how the Lions’ run deficiencies were masked early in the season by explosive plays. Jahmyr Gibbs had a 26 and 42-yard run in that game. On the other 28 carries, the Lions averaged just 3.9 yards per carry. They finished with a 43.3% success rate on the ground that game, which is really just an average performance.
Bears pass offense (7th) vs. Lions pass defense (7th)
Caleb Williams and the Bears’ passing offense is hitting a little bit of a stride. After some struggles in the first two months of the season, it seems like the passing offense has found its groove, and Williams has been particularly great in the last three games against some strong defenses.
For the season, the Bears rank just:
- 15th in passer rating (91.0)
- 15th in yards per attempt (7.0)
- Ninth in dropback EPA (0.129)
- 22nd in success rate (45.1%)
But if we limit those stats to Week 9 and beyond, here’s where the Bears rank:
- 13th in passer rating (91.4)
- Sixth in dropback EPA (0.159)
- 15th in success rate (45.9%)
The relatively low success rate and high EPA numbers—as we have learned—means the Bears are capable of explosive plays. Indeed, the Bears rank fourth in 20+ yard passing plays this season, with 58—or an average of 3.6 per game.
The Bears have also done a great job of avoiding negative plays in the passing game this year. They’ve allowed just 23 sacks (fourth fewest) and thrown just six interceptions (t-fewest).
But Williams is still battling accuracy issues. His 57.9% completion percentage is worst in the league and his -7.2% completion percentage over expected is last by an extremely large margin (Trevor Lawrence is next at -3.5%).
I’m not sure whether to laugh or cry at that green 3 figure at the bottom of the passing yards column. You’d be hard pressed to convince anyone that the Lions’ pass defense has been good lately, despite the avoiding a red cell in passer rating the last four weeks. Because since right before Thanksgiving, the Lions are ceding a ton of yardage in the passing game.
For the season, the Lions now rank:
- 19th in passer rating allowed (92.9)
- 24th in yards per attempt (7.3)
- 13th in dropback EPA (0.043)
- 8th in success rate (43.1%)
It’s frustrating how these stats look much better than the eye test, but it’s worth pointing out that Detroit has performed outstanding on first and second down all season long (5th in EPA, 3rd in success rate), but third and fourth down has been a complete disaster (26th in EPA, 25th in success rate).
Advantage: Bears + 1.5. I still have questions about Williams, and I think the Lions could be fine on first and second down. However, I would not be surprised at all if Chicago hits on a couple of deep shots. The Bears are not afraid to go deep (Williams is sixth in 20+ air yard attempts) and his deep-ball accuracy has improved as of late.
Bears run offense (4th) vs. Lions run defense (17th)
Now this is what an actually good rushing offense chart looks like. The Bears have rushed for at least 110 rushing yards and 4.3 yards per carry in five straight contests and in 11 of 16 games this year. They were a good rushing attack for most of the year, and they’ve been an elite one down the stretch. For the season, they rank:
- Third in yards per carry (4.9)
- Sixth in rush EPA (0.007)
- Second in success rate (46.8%)
And if I localize those stats to Week 9 and beyond again…
- Second in yards per carry (5.2)
- Third in rush PEA (0.071)
- Second in success rate (50.0%)
Credit equally goes to the Bears’ revamped offensive line (3rd in run blocking PFF grade) and their set of running backs. For as much crap as D’Andre Swift got in Detroit, his game has evolved and he’s making the most out of his opportunities.
I don’t want to talk about it.
The Lions’ run defense ranks:
- 21st in yards per carry allowed (4.4)
- 23rd in rush EPA (-0.038)
- 20th in success rate (41.5%)
Advantage: Bears +3. I think the Lions may get absolutely slaughtered here. They’ve allowed at least 120 rushing yards in six of their last seven games, including two absolutely embarrassing performances against the Rams and Steelers. Detroit has particularly struggled against teams that utilize two or more tight ends in the run game, and the Bears certainly qualify—ranking seventh in 12 personnel rate and seventh in 13 personnel rate.
Last week’s prediction:
This was another week in which I got the winner wrong, yet I actually still feel pretty good about all of my predictions from last week’s column. I successfully predicted a low-scoring defensive game, noting that it wouldn’t surprise me for the outcome to go either way. In fact, take this sentence from my conclusion , and I pretty much nailed it.
“I expect this to be a low-scoring, ugly game, and if the Vikings’ aggressive defense forces a turnover or two, it could turn for the worse in a hurry.”
Still, On Paper is a disappointing 7-9 this year. I stopped keeping track of my picks against the spread, but I think it’s a little better.
The closest prediction from the crowd this week came from our own Al Karsten, who was one of two staff members to pick the Vikings in his game. His prediction of 23-20 Vikings wasn’t super close, but no one was. When a staff member wins, they get to request the photoshop. He failed to request anything in time, SO THE WHOLE CLASS GETS PUNISHED. NO REWARD THIS WEEK.
This week’s prediction:
The Bears come out with a +2.5 advantage which feels about right. I do believe Chicago’s defense is a farce, which should keep the Lions in this game. The Bears’ offense, however, could really pour it on the Lions. Weather pending, I’m expecting a shootout, and one the Lions will just not be able to keep up with.
Bears 38, Lions 28.
