Happy Friday, everyone. December 19 has finally arrived, which means it’s time for Alabama to face off against an Oklahoma team in the College Football Playoff, that wouldn’t be in the playoff if Alabama hadn’t
managed to blow a game against them in Tuscaloosa. The game will kick off at 7pm CT on ABC, and previews and predictions are plentiful.
Oklahoma’s offense has been bad all season. I’ve made no secret about my feelings for it, but what isn’t talked about is that Alabama’s offense has been just as bad as Oklahoma’s lately. Seriously, in Alabama’s last five games against FBS opponents, it has averaged 1.70 points per possession. Oklahoma has averaged 1.64 in the same time frame.
Pushing me further in Oklahoma’s direction is the health of both teams. Oklahoma’s defense will get R. Mason Thomas back this week, and he’s their best pass-rusher. Alabama will once again be without LT Overton on its defensive line, and there are whispers that Ty Simpson has been dealing with an injury of his own for weeks. While I can’t verify those whispers, his performance over the last month or so is not helping Simpson shake the allegations. It’s hard to beat the same team twice in the same season, but Oklahoma probably shouldn’t have won the first time! So give me Oklahoma in the rematch, too. The Pick: Oklahoma +1.5
The first meeting was defined solely by a handful of plays. The Alabama defense outplayed the Oklahoma offense in nearly every facet of the game. And the Crimson Tide offense moved the ball against the Sooners defense. Oklahoma may just have Alabama’s number. But if you ask the Crimson Tide, those handful of turnovers are fixable — ones that will be fixed when it matters most. No. 9 Alabama 21, No. 8 Oklahoma 17
Alabama will go on a razor-sharp opening drive to take a 7-0 lead, and then it’ll be just as crisp on the second drive. But just as it looks like it’s going to be the Alabama we all know, the OU defense will stiffen, limit the damage to a field goal, and then it’ll be on.
Mateer will look and play with a bit more pop. There won’t be much of a ground game, but the Sooner defense will hold firm over the rest of the second half as the score starts to even up.
Oklahoma will win the second half field position battle, with one big pass play breaking through to finally take over the momentum. The Sooner pass rush will handle the rest.Oklahoma 23, Alabama 20
Alabama should have beaten Oklahoma the first time, but turnovers — and the lack of a rushing attack — doomed the Tide. I’m not expecting drastic changes for the Tide’s offense overnight, but they’re healthier and have the better quarterback. Oklahoma is an underdog at home for the first time this season and the total (40.5) is the lowest in any CFP game ever. The under has hit in Alabama’s last five games and Oklahoma is 10-2. I’m not sure I’d touch the total, but I just don’t see Alabama losing to a team for the second time. Pick: Alabama -1
Alabama’s offense has relied on Ty Simpson being able to slice through opposing defenses, all the more so given the absence of a consistent rushing threat.
But that production has slipped in recent weeks, including against this very Sooner defense, and that unit will play even more inspired football at home with more on the line.
Oklahoma’s offense won’t blow the doors off, but it will benefit from the defense’s turnovers and beneficial field position.
Oklahoma wins 25-21
What did Alabama learn from this year’s loss to Oklahoma? (And last year’s, too.) Look for the rematch to be decided on defense and by which team avoids the type of crucial turnover that could tip the game in either direction. Despite dropping two in a row to the Sooners, the Crimson Tide have more room for error. Alabama 20, Oklahoma 13.
Hummer (Alabama -1.5): A rematch of one of the most confusing results of the 2025 season, Alabama must travel to Norman in hopes of changing the result from earlier in the season. Oklahoma upset Alabama in Tuscaloosa, 23-21, despite being outgained by 194 yards. That lopsided yardage differential didn’t matter because of a trio of Alabama turnovers and horrid play in the red zone. That game was a hint of overall struggles for the Tide offense, which hasn’t cleared the 30-point barrier against Power Four competition since Oct. 18. That could once again be a problem against an elite Oklahoma defense.
At the same time … I just can’t pick the Sooners because of their offense. Alabama is a slightly above-average offensive attack. Oklahoma is bad at 93rd nationally in yards per play. The Sooners are just an OK passing offense (even as John Mateer struggles with turnovers) but they’re a horrid rushing offense at 108th nationally in rushing yards per play. Maybe a truly disruptive Sooners defense can continue to carry their offense. It’s possible. But it’s just not something I’d be willing to bet on a second time against one of the most talented teams in the country. If Ty Simpson takes care of the ball, the Crimson Tide get the road win. … Alabama 24, Oklahoma 21.
“Because of the environment and because of the pass rush, I think it’s going to be difficult for Alabama to sit there and throw the ball sustainably without running it. Now, Jam Miller being back? Maybe that helps them out a little bit, but they haven’t shown the ability to be really balanced.”
“I think OU wins this outright, 20-17. They find a way to get to 20 points. (Tate) Sandell hits a couple of long ones. They get a couple of turnovers, and they win it very similarly to the one they won in Tuscaloosa.”
OU 20, ALABAMA 14: A rematch of two struggling offenses. Alabama’s run game has been nonexistent the past few weeks and rumors have spread this week about Ty Simpson’s health. OU’s offense has sputtered, barely doing enough to continue winning. If the Sooners don’t improve, their offensive ineptitudes will catch up to them in this playoff. But not in the first round. I like Brent Venables’ defense to continue creating opportunistic turnovers, send the Tide packing for home and OU packing for New Year’s Day at the Rose Bowl. —Colton Sulley, OU beat writer
Had this game been played in October, everyone would be picking Alabama by double digits. The Tide had a very good passing offense at that point, paired with one of the nation’s stingiest defenses. As we all know, that passing offense has been AWOL since the last time these two teams faced.
It wasn’t really AWOL in that game, however. Ty Simpson didn’t light up the Sooners, but 326 passing yards on 42 tosses is solid production. The reality is that Alabama lost the game despite a 95% postgame win expectancy, mostly because of a 87-yard pick six. The Sooners were +3 in turnovers and needed to be in order to eke out a two point victory.
It’s easy to make an argument for Oklahoma in this one. They are adding their best pass rusher back to the mix in R Mason Thomas, and were able to make life tough for Simpson without him in November. They also got to watch Auburn and Georgia induce Simpson into consecutive putrid performances by applying pressure. Until Alabama proves that they can run the ball or burn manufactured pressures, defensive coordinators would be wise to gamble. The Sooners could very well get three turnovers again.
Still, it feels like Alabama’s offense should be able to do a bit more against Oklahoma’s defense than the reverse. LT Overton is a big loss, but Jordan Renaud looked good in his stead and this secondary has been as good as any in the country. It would be foolish to expect the Alabama offense to go bonkers in Norman, but they won’t have to. Alabama’s defense will play with purpose and keep the Sooners out of the end zone, and the Tide will gut out a 20-15 victory.
Of course, that is merely my opinion. Feel free to share yours in the comments.
Michael Casagrande notes that a win this game will help re-establish Alabama’s brand, which has slipped in recent seasons.
Alabama was scrapping for the final playoff spot in 2023 when it was a four-team field. The same was true in 2024 and 2025 when the bracket expanded to 12.
The world’s changed a lot in the last two seasons. Nobody reading this deep into a column needs to be told that.
This is about reasserting Alabama’s place in the hierarchy of college football.
Because finishing a season with a 10-4 record, losses to two straight SEC teams and three of the final four FBS opponents would negate much of the goodwill of a playoff return.
It would leave Alabama eating a sad dinner at a suburban Olive Garden when the likes of Indiana and Texas Tech are already safely at a downtown steakhouse.
Last, the Kalen DeBoer to Michigan conversation just won’t go away despite the statements from Kalen and Greg Byrne.
“Now, if this were a poker game, like I said, sounds like Michigan’s all-in,” McElroy said. “Every chip, the deed to the big house, the watch that the president wears, they’re they’re all at the center of the table.”
What makes this story even more compelling is Michigan’s refusal to accept rejection. DeBoer has already publicly indicated he’s not interested in leaving Alabama, but that hasn’t deterred the Wolverines.
“I do know this that Michigan is not interested yet accepting the answer ‘No’,” McElroy explained. “We will see exactly where that goes.”
The blank check offer signals a new era in college football coaching contracts where financial constraints are removed for the right candidate.
It demonstrates Michigan’s belief that securing elite coaching talent is worth unlimited investment. However, McElroy’s reporting suggests DeBoer is likely to remain at Alabama despite the massive payday Michigan is dangling.
“I don’t think Kalen DeBoer is ultimately going to take the job,” McElroy said. “I don’t think Kalen DeBoer wants to take the job. I think Kalen DeBoer is happy at Alabama.”
There is probably nothing to it anyway, but it all becomes moot with a victory tonight. Let’s just do that, aight?
That’s about it for today. Have a great weekend.
Roll Tide.
