Last week ATS: 5-9 (4-4 National, 1-5 B1G)
Season ATS: 86-86 (37-44 National, 49-42 B1G)
Last week wasn’t my finest set of picks, as I went 5-9 to drop to .500 on the season. I should have known my week was going to be cooked when Georgia had a chance to score late in the game to go up two scores on Florida but decided to kneel it at the one. While it was the right choice for the Bulldogs, it was the wrong choice for me.
At least I stayed hot when it comes to my Ohio State picks. The Buckeyes have now covered five straight games. The last time Ohio State failed to cover the spread was
back in September against Ohio when they narrowly missed covering a big spread against the Bobcats.
Here’s to making it six correct picks in a row for Buckeye games!
National Games
No. 7 BYU v. No. 8 Texas Tech (-10.5) – 12:00 p.m. ET – ABC
For the second straight season, BYU is undefeated in early November. Last year the Cougars looked like they were headed to the College Football Playoff before dropping games to Kansas and Iowa State late in the season.
Last time we saw BYU they rebounded from a tough start against the Cyclones to beat Iowa State 41-27 in Ames. Luckily for the Cougars, it sounds like running back L.J. Martin will be available to play after he was injured against Iowa State.
The Red Raiders have responded well to losing their first game of the season. After falling 26-22 to Arizona State, Texas Tech outscored Oklahoma State and Kansas State by a combined score of 85-20. Last week against the Wildcats, quarterback Behren Morton returned to the field for the first time in nearly a month, throwing for 249 yards and two scores.
BYU has been playing with fire at times this year, winning by just a field goal against Colorado and Utah, surviving in double overtime against Arizona, and falling behind at Iowa State before coming back in the second half. Texas Tech is too good of a team to fall behind early in the game.
The Red Raiders continue their recent strong play and hand the Cougars their first loss of the season.
Texas Tech 35, BYU 21
No. 3 Texas A&M (-7.5) v. No. 22 Missouri – 3:30 p.m. ET – ABC
This game took a hit when Missouri quarterback Beau Pribula was injured against Vanderbilt. Freshman Matt Zollers was alright after replacing Pribula, but the Tigers didn’t have enough to beat the Commodores, falling 17-10. Zollers at least has had some extra time to prepare for the Aggies after Missouri had a bye last week.
The Tigers need to win their final four games of the regular season to make the College Football Playoff, and even that might not be enough.
The last time we saw Texas A&M they whooped LSU so bad in the second half the Tigers fired Brian Kelly the next day. Who really knows if the Aggies are good since four of their last five games have come against teams that have fired their coach during the season.
While Missouri won’t be firing their coach anytime soon, Texas A&M lucks out again since they will be playing a team starting their backup quarterback. Defensive end Cashius Howell is approaching 10 sacks on the season and will make life miserable for Zollers in his first start.
Texas A&M 30, Missouri 17
LSU v. No. 4 Alabama (-9.5) – 7:30 p.m. ET – ABC
Firing Brian Kelly doesn’t change the fact that LSU is still a flawed team. Garrett Nussmeier hasn’t looked anywhere close to the first round quarterback many were touting him to be entering this season. The defense of the Tigers looked like it finally broke last time out, giving up 35 points at home at night in the second half to Texas A&M.
Alabama received a scare in their last game, falling behind South Carolina in the fourth quarter before rallying to beat the Gamecocks 29-22. Quarterback Ty Simpson has been smart with the football throughout the season, with the only interception he has thrown coming in the win over Vanderbilt. Then again, it can’t be too hard to put up big numbers when throwing to receivers like Ryan Williams, Germie Bernard, and Isaiah Horton.
The Crimson Tide add t0 LSU’s woes by beating their rival by double digits on Saturday night.
Alabama 34, LSU 21
B1G Games
No. 1 Ohio State (-29.5) v. Purdue – 1:00 p.m. ET – BTN
In past years a trip to West Lafayette might be something for Ohio State to worry about. The Boilermakers actually have the second-most wins against the Buckeyes in the Big Ten this century, with their five wins only trailing Michigan’s seven victories.
Luckily for Ohio State, this isn’t a Purdue team to worry too much about, as the Boilermakers have lost their last seven games after opening the season with wins over Ball State and Southern Illinois in Barry Odom’s first season as head coach.
Things got even worse for Purdue earlier this week when it was announced running back Devin Mockobee would miss the rest of the season due to injury. Mockobee had rushed for 521 yards and four scores so far this season, while adding 215 receiving yards. The Boilermakers were going to need Mockobee against Ohio State to try and control the clock and help keep the football away from the Buckeyes.
Ohio State should be able to do whatever they want this week against Purdue. Julian Sayin has thrown for 300 yards, at least three touchdowns, and completed at least 80 percent of his passes in three of his last four games. Bo Jackson is coming off his third 100-yard rushing game of the year.
Kenyatta Jackson Jr. had two sacks last week, and Caleb Downs has to feel like he is playing with house money after nearly being ejected in the second half last week following a hit on a Penn State receiver that was initially called targeting.
The Buckeyes should have no problem registering their third straight win over Purdue by at least 30 points.
Ohio State 38, Purdue 6
No. 2 Indiana (-14.5) v. Penn State – 12:00 p.m. ET – FOX
This Indiana team is even scarier than the team that last year shocked college football by earning a spot in the playoff. Since the beginning of last season, the only teams the Hoosiers have lost to were the two teams that played for the title back in January.
Last week the Hoosiers ran over Maryland, rolling up 367 yards on the ground against the Terrapins. Kaelon Black, Roman Hemby, and Khobie Martin all ran for at least 80 yards and a touchdown in the 55-10 win.
Over the years it has been known that playing Ohio State takes a lot out of a team the following week. That’s bad news for Penn State, who has now lost five straight games. The Nittany Lions kept things close for a bit, only trailing 17-14 at halftime before being outscored 21-0 in the second half.
Ethan Grunkemeyer is going to have his work cut out for him against an opportunistic Indiana defense. The Penn State defense tries hard, I’m just expecting them to eventually fold against a dynamic Hoosier offense.
Indiana 37, Penn State 17
No. 9 Oregon (-6.5) v. No. 20 Iowa – 3:30 p.m. ET – CBS
Are you ready to talk to your kids about a CFP-bound Iowa team?
You have some time to possibly prepare to do so, since the Hawkeyes travel to USC next week after hosting Oregon this week. The only loss in the Big Ten for the Hawkeyes was a 20-15 setback at home against Indiana, which looks like a really good loss considering how the Hoosiers have been demolishing their other opponents.
Last time out, Iowa destroyed Minnesota 41-3, with quarterback Mark Gronowski throwing his first touchdown pass in over a month.
Oregon lost a bit of their luster with an underwhelming performance a couple weeks ago against Wisconsin, only beating the Badgers 21-7 in Eugene. Some of the reason for the unimpressive victory can be attributed to quarterback Dante Moore leaving the game with an injury.
Moore is scheduled to return this week, but will be going up against a very tough Iowa defense. Weird things happen at Kinnick Stadium and I’m not sure the Ducks are going to enjoy their first trip to Iowa City for a conference game.
Iowa 23, Oregon 20
Rapid Fire Picks
National
Tulane v. Memphis (-6.5) – Friday 9:00 p.m. ET – ESPN
Tulane 27, Memphis 24
No. 5 Georgia (-7.5) v. Mississippi State – 12:00 p.m. ET – ESPN
Georgia 33, Mississippi State 23
Auburn v. No. 16 Vanderbilt (-6.5) – 4:00 p.m. ET – SEC Network
Vanderbilt 24, Auburn 13
Wake Forest v. No. 14 Virginia (-6.5) – 7:00 p.m. ET – ESPN
Virginia 28, Wake Forest 17
Florida (-3.5) v. Kentucky – 7:30 p.m. ET – SEC Network
Kentucky 20, Florida 14
B1G
Northwestern v. No. 19 USC (-14.5) – Friday 9:00 p.m. ET – FOX
USC 34, Northwestern 13
Maryland v. Rutgers (-1.5) – 2:30 p.m. ET – FS1
Rutgers 31, Maryland 27
No. 23 Washington (-11.5) v. Wisconsin – 4:30 p.m. ET – BTN
Washington 30, Wisconsin 10
Nebraska v. UCLA (-1.5) – 9:00 p.m. ET – FOX
Nebraska 21, UCLA 17
