So… is it time to overreact, Bills Mafia? No, but go on if you must. The Buffalo Bills aren’t very good right now, held up only by the four wins they stole from teams that are now a combined 3-21 on the season.
Even their Week 1 win against the Baltimore Ravens comes with an asterisk, though the Bills were the only team to play the best version of the 2025 Ravens.
Reeling after a two-game losing streak to teams widely believed to be inferior, it’s not just that Buffalo lost, but how they did it. The defense is a mess, even if the defensive line looks improved at times. The run defense resembles what might happen if a high school team lined up across from anyone in the professional ranks. It’s that bad, and that doesn’t change just because they played it better in the second half of Week 6. You don’t get to ignore 81-yard house calls and almost 140 yards given up to Bijan Robinson in one half of play.
But is the run defense really the biggest issue? Of the easily visible ones, yes. But the defensive backs are atrocious. It’s just that teams run against the Bills so much that the pass defense numbers look decent. It’s a mirage, I tell you. Two losses in a row that featured two top receivers going off against Buffalo, when hardly anyone else did in the passing game.
But at the same time, this bad defense held Atlanta to a field goal in the second half. The offense, on the other hand, couldn’t get out of its own way, only managing two touchdowns with one each off their opening drives of each half.
With another loss, Buffalo dropped in almost every instance of the Week 7 power rankings. As we’ve variously said in so many places here at Buffalo Rumblings, there are plenty of questions to ask about these Bills. That was true when whispered after Week 1, and now it’s a roar loud enough to fill the silent void of a pure vacuum.
Let’s dive in to the ball pit that is this week’s power rankings, first by taking a look at ESPN’s playoff odds for the Bills in four key metrics. Buffalo once again dropped across all four metrics, and for the first time this season don’t sit at the top of these odds.
The Bills’ odds of making the playoffs dropped to 89% (was 92%); their odds of winning the division are now down t0 just 54% (was 70%). Buffalo earning a bye in the playoffs dropped to 15% (was 30%), while making it to the Super Bowl dropped to 15% (was 22%).
Moving on to thoughts from national pundits about Buffalo’s loss to New England with a now tidy refrain in this space…
Let’s live in the present and dive into the latest NFL power rankings, passing the mic to hierarchy experts around the country. Ready?
(Week 5 Power Rankings for comparison)
ESPN: 3 (down from 2 in Week 6)
“Lesson learned: This Bills team still has a lot to learn about itself.”
“Coming into the season, the hype for the Bills was high, with reigning MVP Josh Allen set for another big year. But if anything has been clear for this team through six games, it’s that there are some major questions still to be answered to truly have a run at a Super Bowl title. Is the defense talented enough to put together a complete game? Is there enough talent at wide receiver to give Allen targets downfield? The limitations of this team have been clear, even in the wins, and there is work to be done.” — Alaina Getzenberg
NFL.com: 4 (down from 3 in Week 6)
“The Bills are in second place in the AFC East — gulp — after their second straight loss, and they’re frankly just not a disciplined team right now. I really struggled with where to slot them, hemming and hawing over their potential vs. what the eyes tell me. Josh Allen was picked off late in both halves and didn’t play well in Atlanta. There were eight more penalties, bringing the Bills’ total to 30 over the last three games. The defense was smoked early and worn down late. And yet, Buffalo had every chance to steal the game after the opening-drive TD in the third quarter. But Greg Rousseau’s field goal block was followed by back-to-back three-and-outs, and the window closed. In a game where James Cook averaged more than 5 yards per run, the Bills scored 14 points and couldn’t break 300 yards. The operation is broken.” — Eric Edholm
The Athletic: 16 (down from 4 in Week 6)
“Fantasy focus: James Cook”
“Cook was about the only thing working for Buffalo’s offense Monday night as Josh Allen threw two interceptions and was held to 180 yards and a 72.6 passer rating. Cook had 17 carries for 87 yards and is the 29th-leading fantasy scorer in the league (17.43 ppg).” — Josh Kendall / Chad Graff
CBS Sports: 10 (down from 3 in Week 6)
“They have major issues right now on the defensive side of the ball, and the offense has no speed down the field. They limp into their bye with two straight losses.” — Pete Prisco
Sports Illustrated: 6 (down from 2 in Week 6)
“Ok, now it’s time to point out that the four teams Buffalo has beaten so far this season have a combined three wins. A sloppy, pedestrian performance against Atlanta capped by a failed potential pick-six at the end of the game doesn’t raise major big-picture questions—but it does give the Bills their very own Chiefs look-in-the-mirror-moment. ” — Conor Orr
On SI: 2 (unchanged from Week 6)
“Veteran Shaq Thompson’s signing was an afterthought throughout training camp, but the former Panthers first-round pick has been the Bills’ best linebacker. Seeing steady work due to Matt Milano’s pectoral injury, Thompson has been flying around despite coming off an Achilles tear that prematurely ended his 2024 season.” — Ralph Ventre, Buffalo Bills On SI
Pro Football Talk: 11 (down from 4 in Week 6)
“Their four wins have come against teams with a combined record of 3-21.” — Mike Florio
USA Today: 7 (down from 2 in Week 6)
“In fairness, they’re missing a lot of key guys at the moment. And, in fairness, their four victories came against clubs with an aggregate 3-21 record.” — Nate Davis
FOX Sports: 5 (down from 4 in Week 6)
“Back-to-back losses against inferior teams is bad enough, but the Bills’ bigger problem is they’re not going to win much late in the season or in the playoffs with the terrible run defense that Bijan Robinson shredded on Monday night.” — Ralph Vacchiano
Pressbox: 10 (down from 4 in Week 6)
“The Bills are just as mid is everyone else in the NFL. This is the NFL your uncle thinks the government wants.” — Glenn Clark
Bleacher Report: 6 (down from 3 Week 6)
“Though many expected the Buffalo Bills to bounce back from their first loss of the season, they went flat under the Monday night bright lights. The Bills scored a season-low of 14 points and gave up a whopping 443 total yards from scrimmage. Buffalo must patch up its run defense, which ranked 30th going into Week 6, and allowed 170 yards and a score to Bijan Robinson.
Just two weeks ago, the Bills were the league’s last unbeaten team. Now, they need to figure out how to end a two-game skid.” — Maurice Moton
Sportsnaut: 8 (down from 3 in Week 6)
“Either the Buffalo Bills have to find a No. 1 wide receiver or make improvements to this defense. Without addressing either of those problems, Buffalo will likely win the AFC East and then get knocked out by the Chiefs, Colts or potentially even the Jacksonville Jaguars in the playoffs. Josh Allen still hasn’t locked into his true MVP mode where he puts this offense on his back, but the glaring weaknesses on this Bills roster will still be there when that happens.” — Matt Johnson
The Sporting News: 6 (down from 3 in Week 6)
“The Bills struggled to beat the Patriots with not enough offense. Then they didn’t get any kind of good defense to give Josh Allen a real chance to rebound in Atlanta. He’s pressing in needing to do too much as a MVP. The bye is coming at the ideal time to fix some things.” — Vinnie Iyer
New York Post: 5 (down from 3 in Week 6)
“Gashed for 238 yards from scrimmage by Bijan Robinson, the Bills head into the bye week off a second straight loss after falling 24-14 to the Falcons. Josh Allen threw two interceptions, including one in the final minute. Josh Allen strangely underhanded an incompletion on a fourth-and-2 and Elijah Moore dropped a third-and-1 handoff to stall out two second-half drives.” — Ryan Dunleavy
Yahoo! Sports: 4 (down from 2 in Week 6)
“The Bills’ nearly perfect runout in September has taken some hits in October. The loss to Atlanta was troubling because the defense was torched for 355 yards in the first half alone and the offense did almost nothing. There are some issues to clean up.” — Frank Schwab
NFL Spin Zone:
Ranking every four-win NFL team: 6 out of 11
“It might be time to have a conversation about the Buffalo Bills, as they have only beaten up on bad teams this year and have now lost two games in a row to the New England Patriots and Atlanta Falcons. Josh Allen has been fine this year, but the defense has largely been bad, so Buffalo just does not have that juggernaut feeling to them right now.” — Lou Scataglia
Ranking Every AFC team: 5 out of 16
“What a difference a week makes…
The Buffalo Bills have consistently been #1 or #2 in my entire NFL-wide power rankings, but here they are at #5 in their own conference after a second-straight loss.
We’re not doubting the Bills’ ability to be a Super Bowl contender, but they have a lot of stuff to work out right now. The skill position talent for this team on offense has become a bit of an issue, and the Bills’ defense has been a problem all year.
We sort of saw the writing on the wall for this team after an ugly win against the Saints, but the Patriots and Falcons have broken the dam completely since then. The Bills need to get back on track badly.” — Sayre Bedinger
Touchdown Wire: 6 (down from 3 in Week 6)
— Tyler Whitcomb
No commentary on ranking, which actually erroneously lists the Bills as #1 after the fifth-ranked team. The writer who lists these seems to change weekly. We’ll give it one more week, and then it’s time to move on from promoting a subpar effort out of the TW team.
FanDuel Research: 1 (unchanged from Week 6)
(All NFL odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook.)
— Annie Nader
“The Rich Eisen Show”: 6 (down from 3 in Week 6)
Computer Cowboy: 4 (unchanged from Week 6)
The Bills have a lot of work to do, and hopefully there’s a good plan to attack what’s wrong. Failing that, expect to see Buffalo continue its slide in the highly subjective and opinionated world of NFL power rankings.
