If there’s one thing that you can trust the Yankees to do, it’s find a guy you don’t know from Adam and turn him into one of the five or so best relievers in baseball. They did such a good job with Clay Holmes that he’s now a starter, Luke Weaver carried the ball for the 2024 squad until he essentially could not stand, and others make up a full cohort of previously-anonymous stone cold hurlers.
The 2026 version of this was Paul Blackburn, who prior to now had spent parts of 10 seasons bouncing around
the major and minor league rosters of the Athletics and Mets before finding himself the setup man for the New York Yankees, locking down the 8th inning and more.
Grade: A
2026 Statistics: 85.0 IP, 1.59 ERA (248 ERA+), 3.75 FIP, 10.7 K-BB%, 1 save, 0.7 fWAR
2027 Contract Status: Free agent
Blackburn will be one of the more interesting free agent cases for the Yankees. The team has steered clear of long-term investments in relief pitchers for a couple of years now, but were happy to sign Weaver to a two-year, $20 million deal a couple years ago, and that turned out to be a solid decision. A similar contract would work for Blackburn, except he’s been a little volatile in his year and a half in the Bronx.
Acquired from the Mets in 2025, Blackburn was underwhelming in his first season, with an ERA above five. His xERA, which puts more emphasis on contact quality, was 2.92, and his numbers were slightly skewed by an abnormally high home run rate. In short, we didn’t really get a complete picture of Paul Blackburn, and we never really can in just 15.1 innings.
We got a more complete picture this year, with 85 innings of work being a little more indicative of Blackburn’s talent. He got his home runs back under control, but in line with a bullpen corps that didn’t strike out many men — literally the median rate in MLB — he sat down just 20.5 percent of men he faced, while walking 9.8 percent. A two-to-one strikeout to walk ratio is really pretty pedestrian among modern MLB relievers, but a 54 percent groundball rate and 51 percent medium contact rate helped engineer that run prevention.
The medium contact rate is what really stands out to me. Hard groundballs are often outs, but if they’re up the middle or a first baseman is holding the runner on, those balls will find the outfield. Soft groundballs are often outs, but sometimes they’re hit too slow to make the play on. Medium contact is exactly what an infielder wants — slow enough to get to, hard enough that you can get your feet set and get a good throw off without needing to rush.
That contact is the key to Blackburn’s talent going forward, that and his ability to go more than three outs. In 32 of his 62 appearances Blackburn threw more than one inning, an attribute that I think only grows more and more valuable as starters throw fewer and fewer innings. The question of whether you bring Blackburn back for 2027 largely hinges on how repeatable those two qualities are.
He was used as a swingman in 2025, starting four games and going more than three outs 2/3 of the time. He started fulltime two years ago, so I think it’s safe to say that he can be used in that longer-stretch role again next year, he’s built for it. The contact stuff is trickier — he’d never posted something as strong as a 54 percent groundball rate before, but he did it in a very Matt Blake way, with hard sinkers to righties and stepping up his changeup to lefties.
Blackburn was good enough, and there’s enough substance behind his improvements, that I’d be willing to put a bet on him for 2027. Contact quality and relying on batted balls rather than whiffs invites a little more volatility than a guy who just strikes out a third of batters faced, but that will be baked into the cost of whatever contract he eventually agrees to. One of the stars of the league’s second-best bullpen, Blackburn has earned another shot to star in the eighth inning.
See more of the Yankees Roster Report Card series here.
